Fantasy Insider: Best of the rest, others to avoid in Doral

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I took a direct hit on the chin last week, falling some 12,000 spots in the Yahoo! game, but mama said that there would be weeks like those. Mama said.

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I've brushed myself off and my confidence remains intact. That's what a no-cut, 68-man field featuring 48 of the world's top 50 (no Tiger Woods and Ryo Ishikawa) will do to the psyche.

In addition to the importance of hitting greens at the TPC Blue Monster (per my Power Rankings on Monday), expect the majority of the front-runners on Sunday to share the ability of moving it off the tee. With greens expected to be relatively soft, approaches from the rough will hold, giving the edge to the bombers.

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TOP PICKS: See Power Rankings for Anthony Kim, Phil Mickelson and Vijay Singh.

Zach Johnson -- I'm somewhat stupefied by his relatively slow start. He's the TOUR's leading ball-striker but has yet to post a top 10 in four starts (including the World Golf Championships-Accenture Match Play Championship). At the top of the year, I slotted him third in my full-membership fantasy ranking, figuring that he might benefit most from the grooves rollback. Instead, while his iron game remains tremendous, he is four-and-a-half percent lower in his scrambling against his '09 clip. That translates to a difference of 134 spots in that ranking. Doral's rough lives up to its name, so ZJ is leaning toward a sucker play this week.

Steve Marino -- The Honda Classic, where he withdrew after 27 holes due to flu-like symptoms, was his final start as a twentysomething. Marino turns 30 on Wednesday, March 10 and remains a non-winner on the PGA TOUR. He has a pair of top 5s this year, so he might be closer than ever to breaking through. This is his first career start in a World Golf Championships event, and he hasn't competed at Doral, but he does have a good albeit brief history in no-cut events. As much as I'd like to encourage plugging him in this week for the Yahoo! game, he's a smart save for events where the other studs won't play. Incidentally, other non-winners on the PGA TOUR with TOUR cards turning 30 this year include Matt Jones (April 19), Michael Letzig (May 7), rookie Derek Lamely (July 12), Brendon de Jonge (July 18) and Justin Rose (July 30).

Luke Donald -- First start since becoming a dad for the first time at the end of February. (His daughter, Elle Georgina, arrived a month before the due date.) Donald has played well of late, and because he's so skilled it's doubtful that any results could support the potential influence of the nappy factor, so I'm not expecting a dive or surge in the short- or long-term. That said, I almost always give guys at least one start after joining the fraternity of fatherhood before I ride their wares in the fantasy game.
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TOP PICKS: See Power Rankings for Jim Furyk, Rory McIlroy, Camilo Villegas and Oliver Wilson.

Sergio Garcia -- Seriously, is there anything he's doing right now to convince you that he's a smart short-term own? I didn't think so. Put him in the corner and let the dust build.

Geoff Ogilvy -- As much as I love the guy, until he exhibits more consistency week-to-week, he is not an automatic start or even a benchwarmer. Off soapbox ... Yet, it's insane that he's first in greens in regulations and eighth in putting. (In 2009, Tiger Woods was 16th in GIR and 23rd in putting. Yes, Ogilvy deserves that comparison.)

Retief Goosen -- He's getting a lotta love from readers in e-mails, so Yahoo! gamers might need to find a spot on the bench just to keep pace. He's like a greased pig in fantasy circles. The moment you think you have a handle, he's darting in another direction. Kudos if you pick the right week, but I prefer the long-term own here.

Padraig Harrington -- I was tempted to unleash a little frustration, but he started slow last year as well. That was blamed on what was eventually determined to be an overstated swing change. I love his philosophy but I also subscribe to the KISS method. If it helps, in 21 career starts in stroke-play WGCs, he has just two top 5s - 2009 Bridgestone and 2000 CA.

Dustin Johnson -- His three wins aside, this is the kind of hardware that he really needs to climb to the next level. DJ is 161st in fairways hit, but he's a crisp 26th in hitting greens from lies off the fairway. He should devour Doral.

Sean O'Hair -- Since revealing in January that he played 2009 with a stress fracture in his left forearm, he's posted nothing better than a T35 in three stroke-play events. (He went 1-1 at Accenture.) Although his game sets up very nicely for Doral, play it conservatively here.

Lucas Glover -- This is the first time he's qualified for this event since Doral first hosted it in 2007. He finished T26, but that was ages ago in terms of Glover's career. As long as he can hole a few putts, he should contend, so consider him for a bench spot on your Yahoo! roster. (Because of the quirks of TPC Scottsdale, where Glover missed the cut, I tend to discard results there as they relate to projecting future play.)

Henrik Stenson -- First start since conceding his opening tilt against Ben Crane at Accenture. A year ago, after getting bounced from the Match Play, he didn't play again until Doral, where he proceeded to finish T70 in greens hit and 79th in putting. He capped off his T77 finish with a smooth 83. Let's just hope he keeps his clothes on this year, shall we?

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See Power Rankings for Paul Casey and Ian Poulter.

Angel Cabrera -- My most loyal of followers know that I don't like to touch El Pato very often - maybe three times a year - but he deserves a nod because of where he sits in the Yahoo! game. You can throw out course history and recent play. He's as capricious as his golf game (which makes sense, actually). So, my advice is if you're just not feelin' Casey or Poulter, go waddling.

Martin Kaymer -- Positioned for an American coming-out party, but we might be waiting a little longer than expected. Hype is a four-letter word, and Kaymer won't officially arrive on the U.S. scene until he makes a serious run at a title in the U.S. This is just his 14th career start in a PGA TOUR event. Like many bombers, he'll need to manage his game well to score - i.e. keep the ball in the short grass as much as possible.

Rob Bolton is PGATOUR.COM's new fantasy columnist. His views do not necessarily reflect those of the PGA TOUR. To contact Rob, please e-mail him at FantasyInsider@charter.net.