TOUR Insider: No gimmes in Accenture Match Play brackets

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The brackets at the World Golf Championships-Accenture Match Play Championship are daunting to anyone.

Can't wait to fill out those brackets for the World Golf Championship-Accenture Match Play Championship, can you? This is going to be the year you win the office pool, right? Without Tiger or Phil in the mix, the "pretenders" in the office pool don't have a chance, eh?

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Maybe so, but predicting the bracket at this annual event is never easy. There are no buzzer-beaters in golf, but there are plenty of matches that will go down to the final hole. And, unlike the NCAA men's basketball tournament, the top seeds are never safe in the Match Play Championship.

No first-seeded team has ever lost its opening game in the NCAA playoffs, but it's a regular occurrence at the match play tournament on the PGA TOUR. In each of the last two years, one of the top four seeded golfers has been eliminated in their opening match. That would be like North Carolina or Duke losing to Alcorn State or Abilene Christian (no offense to either school).

In 2009, Charl Schwartzel knocked off Sergio Garcia in the first round and Pat Perez KO'd Padraig Harrington in the opener. In 2008, it was Jonathan Byrd whisking away Ernie Els and Colin Montgomerie putting the boot to Jim Furyk. If you claim to have predicted all four upsets, please provide documented proof that has been notarized by your local pool operator and you'll get a special prize.

In the past two years, 13 first-round matches were won by the higher-seeded player. That's about the average number, although there were 18 such upsets in 1999, the first year for the tournament.

When you compare the Accenture Match Play Championship to the NCAA playoffs, think of golfers seeded in the 40s as if they're No. 9 or 10 seeds in the basketball playoffs. This means it's not a huge upset when they win a match. Golfers seeded in the 50s are like No. 11 or 12 seeds and it's usually more surprising when they win. Golfers seeded in the 60s aren't expected to win, but are more capable of taking an 18-hole first-round match than some lower-rung basketball team against a top-ranked opponent.

Just because a high seed wins a first-round match doesn't mean they'll continue the momentum and keep motoring through the field.

• In 2009, nine golfers ranked 40th or higher won their first match, but only two won in the second round and none reached the third round.

• In 2008, eight golfers ranked 40th or higher won their first match, four won their second match and one advanced past the third round. In fact, that year Justin Leonard made it all the way to the quarterfinals before he was beaten by Stewart Cink.

• In 2007, six golfers ranked 40th or higher won their first match and three won their second match. None won their third-round match.

The match-play format is so different for most PGA TOUR players. This is their only exposure to match play and it's limited to the top 64 ranked players in the world. There's only one round of singles competition in the Ryder Cup and Presidents Cup, so that doesn't provide much opportunity either.

"I think it's a little bit different than we're used to every week," said Martin Kaymer. "I'm really looking forward to it because it's man against man. There are no easy matches out there. Every game is difficult. It doesn't really matter if he's No. 64 in the world or No. 3."

This year, the No. 60 seeds include Ross McGowan (who opens with Steve Stricker), Chris Wood (vs. Lee Westwood), Chad Campbell (vs. Kaymer), and Scott Verplank (vs. Jim Furyk).

Westwood realizes there isn't really a built-in advantage for top-seeded players in the tournament.

"Statistically you should have a better first round, but everyone in the field is capable of shooting 62 or 63," he said. "I wouldn't pay much attention to it, because it's over such a short period of time. If it was 36 (holes) the seedings would have more of an effect, but over 18 holes anything can happen."

Chances are pretty good that at least one of those lower-seeded players will spend 30 minutes explaining to the media exactly how they pulled off the upset. The loser will clean out his locker and likely head back to the East Coast. After all, the Florida Swing begins next week.

Stan Awtrey is a freelance columnist for PGATOUR.COM. His views do not necessarily reflect the views of the PGA TOUR.