FedExCup wrap-up: Lots of scenarios can play out Sunday

Sep. 25, 2010
By PGATOUR.COM staff

ATLANTA -- Imagine this scenario for Sunday: Jim Furyk wins THE TOUR Championship presented by Coca-Cola. Paul Casey finishes solo second. Charley Hoffman finishes solo third.

Quick, who wins the FedExCup?

That would be Casey, who would finish with 3,100 FedExCup points. Hoffman would finish second with 3,000. Furyk would finish third with 2,980 points.

The final round at East Lake will be a white-knuckler 18 holes, with so many possibilities that could play out in terms of who wins the FedExCup.

Kin Lo, one of the PGA TOUR's FedExCup experts, has the most likely scenarios involving the names at the top of the leaderboard:

• If Furyk, Retief Goosen or Geoff Ogilvy wins the event, he will win the FedExCup if Charley Hoffman and Paul Casey finish outside of the top three
• If Luke Donald wins the event, he wins the FedExCup
• If Casey or Hoffman wins the event, he wins the FedExCup, regardless of how anybody else finishes

Specific breakdowns are below.

FEDEXCUP: Projected points | Official standings | Scenarios for all 30 players

Here's a breakdown of the key scenarios for the top four players on the leaderboard:

Jim Furyk scenarios
To win the FedExCup, Furyk needs to win THE TOUR Championship and ...
Player Needs to finish 54-hole position
Paul Casey Tied for second or worse T5 (-4)
Charley Hoffman Tied for third or worse 7th (-3)
Steve Stricker Tied for second (three-way) or worse T12 (E)
Matt Kuchar Tied for sixth or worse T23 (+4)
Dustin Johnson Tied for fourth or worse 27th (+7)
Retief Goosen scenarios
To win the FedExCup, Goosen needs to win THE TOUR Championship and ...
Player Needs to finish 54-hole position
Paul Casey Tied for second or worse T5 (-4)
Charley Hoffman Tied for third (three-way) or worse 7th (-3)
Jason Day Tied for second or worse T9 (-1)
Steve Stricker Solo-third or worse T12 (E)
Matt Kuchar Solo-11th or worse T23 (+4)
Dustin Johnson Tied for fourth (three-way) or worse 27th (+7)
Luke Donald scenarios
To win the FedExCup, Donald needs to win THE TOUR Championship and ...
Player Needs to finish 54-hole position
Matt Kuchar Tied for second (three-way) or worse T23 (+4)
Dustin Johnson Tied for second or worse 27th (+7)
Geoff Ogilvy scenarios
To win the FedExCup, Ogilvy needs to win THE TOUR Championship and ...
Player Needs to finish Current 54-hole position
Paul Casey Tied for second of worse T5 (-4)
Charley Hoffman Tied for third or worse 7th (-3)
Steve Stricker Tied for second (three-way) or worse T12 (E)
Matt Kuchar Tied for sixth (three-way) or worse T23 (+4)
Dustin Johnson Tied for fourth or worse 27th (+7)

Here's a breakdown of the scenarios for the top five players to win the FedExCup if they DO NOT win THE TOUR Championship. Realistically, only Casey and Hoffman have a shot to win the FedExCup, although Stricker could get into the mix if he produces a low round Sunday:

Top Five scenarios
Player 54-hole
position
Finish required
to win FedExCup
If TOUR Championship
winner is ...
1. Matt Kuchar T23 (+4) Solo-second Luke Donald
    Solo-sixth or better Jim Furyk
    Tied for 10th (two-way) or better Retief Goosen
    Tied for sixth (three-way) or better Geoff Ogilvy
2. Dustin Johnson 27th (+7) Solo-second Luke Donahld
    Solo-fourth or better Jim Furyk
    Tied for fourth (two-way) or better Retief Goosen
    Solo-fourth or better Geoff Ogilvy
3. Charley Hoffman 7th (-3) Cannot win FedExCup Luke Donald
    Solo-third or better Jim Furyk
    Tied for third (two-way) or better Retief Goosen
    Solo-third or better Geoff Ogilvy
4. Steve Stricker T12 (E) Cannot win FedExCup Luke Donald
    Tied for second (two-way) or better Jim Furyk
    Tied for second (three-way) or better Retief Goosen
    Tied for second (two-way) or better Geoff Ogilvy
5. Paul Casey T5 (-4) Cannot win FedExCup Luke Donald
    Solo-second Jim Furyk
    Solo-second Retief Goosen
    Solo-second Geoff Ogilvy
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