Fantasy Insider: THE TOUR Championship

A funny thing happened after I relayed my Yahoo! lineup for the BMW Championship to the editorial staff for the Approach Shots feature two weeks ago. I forgot to click "submit." Therefore, I played the first round at Cog Hill with the same guys that closed the Deutsche Bank Championship on Labor Day. While that left me without Group C's Matt Kuchar, who I was saving for the final two events, I lucked my way into Dustin Johnson (Group B) and Paul Casey (Group C), neither of whom were in the eight I was planning to save. I started both in the final round of the BMW and cleaned up, thank you. Even a Bolton finds a nut every once in a while.

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Kuchar will wiggle his way back into my lineup for THE TOUR Championship presented by Coca-Cola, which is also the finale in the Yahoo! game. However, since I hit all 30 in this week's field in my Power Rankings, and since long-term fantasy formats, salary leagues, one-and-dones and other private games include the Fall Series, it's the perfect time to analyze what we might expect in the coming weeks from guys teeing it up at East Lake.

Of course, you know the drill, players are not required to officially commit to any event until 5:00 p.m. ET on the Friday prior to it, but by looking at last year's Fall Series, historical trends and a handful of verbal commitments for this fall, we can get a sense for which guys we are more likely to see in the final five events.

Last year, of the 30 that qualified for THE TOUR Championship, 13 committed to at least one event in the Fall Series -- including the canceled Viking Classic -- for an aggregate 20 commitments. (Four committed to at least two events, including the Viking.) Of the 30 that advanced to this year's PGA TOUR Playoffs for the FedExCup capper at East Lake, 20 committed to at least one start in last year's Fall Series for an aggregate 43 commitments. (Eleven planned on competing in at least two events.)

Naturally, as goals are achieved by qualifying for the finale this week, playing schedules in the fall are anticipated to thin a bit. Additionally, this year's Fall Series includes a new tournament -- The McGladrey Classic -- and a new host site for the Frys.com Open -- CordeValle Golf Club in San Martin, Calif. -- both of which will impact decisions across the board. Furthermore, 13 of the 30 at East Lake this week competed at Turning Stone a year ago when it led off the Fall Series. This includes FedExCup leader, Matt Kuchar, who won the tournament, which moved into the regular season this year.

Verbal commitments to the final two (Justin Timberlake Shriners for Hospitals Open and Children's Miracle Network Classic) are unknown at this time. Also, since none of the top eight (within three strokes of the lead) in the Kodak Challenge are in the field this week, I'm ignoring potential motivation for that $1 million spiff.

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Steve Stricker (4th in FedExCup points) -- The Ryder Cupper hasn't teed it up on the PGA TOUR in October since 2006.

Jason Day (6th) -- Played all seven Fall Series' events in 2008, and still didn't crack the top 125 in earnings. On conditional status last year, he earned his card in 18 starts and took the final three months off to get married and honeymoon. Treatment for his mysterious health condition following his effort this week essentially freezes his ability to set a schedule. At The Barclays, he said that he might have to miss the WGC-HSBC Champions and all three top-shelf Australian events as a result.

Luke Donald (7th) -- Will play in next week's Ryder Cup. Has never entered a Fall Series event.

Ernie Els (8th) -- No Fall Series starts planned for the fourth straight year, which is no surprise. He's circled the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship on Oct. 7-10 and Dubai World Championship on Nov. 25-28 thus far.

Martin Laird (9th) -- At this time, as the defending champion of the Justin Timberlake Shriners for Hospitals Open, he's the only man in that field at East Lake that is a pretty good bet to commit. He also competed in last year's Frys.com Open at Grayhawk Golf Club in Scottsdale and the Turning Stone Resort Championship.

Phil Mickelson (10th) -- His start at the Fry's Electronics Open in 2007 is his only appearance in the Fall Series. Post-Ryder Cup, he'll defend at the WGC-HSBC Champions on Nov. 4-7 before playing the Singapore Open (Nov. 11-14). He has withdrawn from the PGA Grand Slam of Golf (Oct. 18-20).

Bubba Watson (18th) -- The first-time Ryder Cup participant has made a series of starts in the Fall Series as he's risen in TOUR stature, including last year's Frys.com Open at Grayhawk.

Zach Johnson (19th) -- Following the Ryder Cup, he has verbally committed to The McGladrey Classic in Sea Island, Ga., where he now lives. (ZJ is part of Team McGladrey.) He's also concluded his official schedule the last two years with starts in the Children's Miracle Network Classic.

Ryan Moore (26th) -- The UNLV product and Las Vegas resident (until late 2008) has played in the TOUR stop there since Justin Timberlake attached his name to it in 2008. Moore has been one of the busiest of this week's field in the Fall Series since '07, with 11 starts, including three last year, which makes him a potentially attractive investment once again. However, this is the first time that he's qualified for THE TOUR Championship, so buyer beware.

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Dustin Johnson (2nd) -- The Ryder Cup rookie broke through on the PGA TOUR in the Fall Series at Turning Stone two years ago, and then played three of the five ensuing events for good measure. Last year, in the wake of his first TOUR Championship appearance, he defended at Turning Stone, but rested the remainder of the fall.

Charley Hoffman (3rd) -- A Fall Series regular, he verbally committed to the Viking Classic, but withdrew before the commitment deadline on Friday. For now, his lone verbal is for the Frys.com Open. He also runs a charity pro-am the Monday of tournament week in hometown of Las Vegas, where he's teed it up at the TOUR stop for the last four years.

Jim Furyk (11th) -- Last year's start at the Timberlake Open was his only Fall Series appearance.

Geoff Ogilvy (12th) -- The Aussie has not entered an event in October on the PGA TOUR in the FedExCup era.

Adam Scott (14th) -- Prepped for last year's President's Cup at Turning Stone, his first and only start in a Fall Series. Just like last year, he's expected to remain busy overseas, with commitments thus far to the Singapore Open and the Australia Open and PGA.

Hunter Mahan (15th) -- His only two Fall Series starts were in Las Vegas in 2008 and 2009. He qualified for THE TOUR Championship both years, too.

Retief Goosen (17th) -- Has not entered a PGA TOUR event in October since 2006.

Kevin Na (20th) -- Qualified for his first TOUR Championship last year, and then put away his clubs until the Sony Open in January. Prior to that, he played in all seven Fall Series events in 2007 and four in 2008.

K.J. Choi (23rd) -- Last year's appearance at Turning Stone is his one and only in a Fall Series. He is the defending champion of the Asian Tour's Iskandar Johor Open on Oct. 14-17.

Jeff Overton (24th) -- He famously secured his TOUR card in the 2008 Fall Series after having an emergency appendectomy, posting top 25s in his final two starts. Overall, he's made 16 starts post-Playoffs in three years, including four in 2009. Of course, this is the first time that he's qualified for THE TOUR Championship, and he'll be a competing in his first Ryder Cup next week, so all bets are off on seeing him as often as he's appeared historically in the fall.

Camilo Villegas (25th) -- Has not entered a PGA TOUR event in October since 2006.

Robert Allenby (27th) -- After an aggregate seven starts in the Fall Series in 2007-08, he entered only Turning Stone last year. For the moment, his lone verbal commitment this fall is for the Frys.com Open. Eventually, he'll take his game to the Australian Masters and PGA. Also, instead of competing in his homeland's national open, he'll defend at the Nedbank Challenge the same week (Dec. 2-5).

Nick Watney (28th) -- In 2007-08, he made an aggregate nine starts in the Fall Series. Then, in 2009, he qualified for his first TOUR Championship, and reduced his Fall Series schedule to one event -- the Timberlake Open.

Kevin Streelman (29th) -- As a rookie in 2008, he played five times in the Fall Series after failing to advance to THE TOUR Championship. Last year, he was bumped from the Playoffs a week earlier than in '08, and entered five Fall Series events, but it was with the sole purpose to win the inaugural Kodak Challenge, which he did. Just as with Jeff Overton, who has shared a similar proclivity to keep going into October and November, it's unknown just how much Streelman will play this fall, but he has verbally committed to the Frys.com Open.

Bo Van Pelt (30th) -- Another first-timer at East Lake that has made pretty good coin in his 15 Fall Series appearances. After a verbal commitment to the Frys.com Open, he's added The McGladrey Classic to his schedule.

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Matt Kuchar (1st) -- His fantasy owners picked the best of years to invest, as he's verbally committed to The McGladrey Classic (he just moved to St. Simons Island, Ga.) and has played the Timberlake the last two years. Granted, this is his first appearance at East Lake and he's a first-time Ryder Cupper, but given the way he's going, even one start is gold.

Paul Casey (5th) -- Hasn't teed it up in a Fall Series yet. Expect him to stay busy overseas in the Race to Dubai and other worldwide events.

Justin Rose (13th) -- A commitment to a U.S.-based schedule paid off in that he qualified for his second TOUR Championship, but he was snubbed as a Ryder Cup wildcard. He teed it up at last year's Turning Stone Resort Championship and season-ending stop at Disney World, so his fantasy owners might be in for a treat again this fall.

Ryan Palmer (16th) -- Two of his three victories have come at this time of year -- 2004 at Disney World and 2008 at the Ginn sur Mer Classic. On Sunday, he tweeted that he's taking three weeks off before a stretch of four straight -- Timberlake, CIMB in Malaysia, WGC-HSBC, Disney.

Tim Clark (21st) -- Always stays busy. Qualified for THE TOUR Championship in 2007, and then played twice in the Fall Series. Qualified again in '08, and made three more starts thereafter. Last year, he didn't make it to East Lake, but competed in the President's Cup and twice in the Fall Series (Timberlake, Frys.com). He usually reserves his overseas appearances for Australia and his native South Africa, but he's an underrated value in our world over the next two months.

Ben Crane (22nd) -- This is his second trip to East Lake, but first in the FedExCup era. Since 2007, he's made 10 starts in the Fall Series, including four last year. Enters this week with over $2.6 million in earnings, which is a personal, single-season high.

Rob Bolton is PGATOUR.COM's new fantasy columnist. His views do not necessarily reflect those of the PGA TOUR. To contact Rob, please e-mail him at FantasyInsider@charter.net or http://twitter.com/RobBoltonGolf.