Cog Hill will provide the answer for the FedExCup's 'magic number'

LEMONT, Ill. -- Matt Kuchar already has his top-five spot locked up.

Charley Hoffman doesn't have that kind of guarantee, but he can basically count on it.

Steve Stricker merely needs to play better than five other players this week.

But Jason Day has to play better than 63 other players, and Luke Donald has to play better than 66 other players.

Call it the battle within the battle within the battle at this week's BMW Championship.

Seventy players will tee off Thursday at Cog Hill seeking to win the third event in the PGA TOUR Playoffs for the FedExCup. Thirty of those players will accumulate enough points to advance to the final event in two weeks, THE TOUR Championship presented by Coca-Cola.

But just five of those players will reach East Lake controlling their own destiny when the FedExCup points are reset after this week. If any of the top five players in reset points wins THE TOUR Championship, then he automatically wins the FedExCup title and the $10 million bonus that comes with it.

Everybody else must hope for help, with their fate decided on how others play and how the 30-man East Lake leaderboard shakes out.

Kuchar, Hoffman, Stricker, Day and Donald enter this week as the top five players, respectively, in FedExCup points. Their goal, in addition to winning this week's tournament, is to maintain their top-five status after the final putt drops on Sunday.

"That's kind of the magic number," No. 5 Donald said Wednesday on the eve of the first round. "If you can get to THE TOUR Championship still in that position, then obviously you have the FedExCup kind of in your hands, so to speak."

Added No. 3 Stricker: "That's where you want to be. You want to be in that top five or higher just because you can control your own destiny."

As you can see, however, being in the top five this week and feeling comfortable about it are two different things. It's likely that Day or Donald will drop out after this week if the BMW winner comes from outside the top five.

Kuchar, The Barclays winner, can finish dead-last in this week's no-cut event and still be assured of a top-five spot. That's the benefit of having a consistent regular season (a TOUR-high nine top-10 finishes), winning a Playoffs event (worth 2,500 points) and having a decent result in the other (tie for 11th at the Deutsche Bank Championship).

Hoffman has only the remotest of chances of slipping outside the top five, thanks to winning the Deutsche Bank last week. Hoffman's appearance in the top five indicates just how critical it is to win a Playoffs event. With points worth five times more than the regular season, Hoffman, who tied for 27th at The Barclays the previous week, won the right event at the right time.

The reasons that Stricker has such a firm grasp on a top-five spot are, essentially, two-fold. First, he won two events during the regular season, and each of those events was worth 500 FedExCup points. Second, he's played well in the first two Playoffs events, with a tie for third at The Barclays and a ninth at the Deutsche Bank. The last two weeks have given Stricker another 1,275 FedExCup points.

In other words, Stricker is an example of the player who is rewarded both for his regular-season play and his performance in the Playoffs. Of Stricker's total FedExCup points going into the BMW, 77 percent came from four events -- the two regular-season wins and the first two Playoffs.

For Day and Donald, the reasons their grasps on a top-five spot are so much more tenuous than Stricker's is simple -- they didn't play nearly as well as Stricker did during the regular season.

While Day broke through with his first TOUR win earlier this year at the HP Byron Nelson Championship, he had just two other top-10 finishes during the regular season and he missed five cuts.

Donald didn't win at all and he missed four cuts, including two majors, which offer slightly more FedExCup points than regular-season events. Stricker, meanwhile, did not miss a cut this season. Again, there's the reward for a better regular season.

As a result, while Day and Donald each has claimed slightly more FedExCup points than Stricker in the first two Playoffs events, Day finds himself more than 400 points behind Stricker's overall total, while Donald is more than 500 points behind.

That's why Stricker can feel much more at ease about remaining in the top five than Day or Donald.

"I've put myself in a good spot," he said.

Yet, Day and Donald shouldn't feel too bad about having to do more to secure their top-five spots. They've been rewarded for their solid play in the first two Playoffs events, but now the pressure is on to maintain that momentum this week.

"I'm not a mathematician," Donald said. "I'm just going to go out there and play as good as I can."

Winning, of course, will take care of everything -- especially winning in the Playoffs. That's why Kuchar and Hoffman are feeling very good about where they stand. They can start concentrating on the big prize, the FedExCup.

"Goals have changed," said Hoffman, who began the Playoffs ranked 69th in points. "Starting out in the FedExCup, it was pretty much just trying to advance week to week. Now, all of a sudden, I'm right in contention for that $10 million bonus."

Kuchar said he's noticed more attention from fans who understand that he will be in a prime position to win the FedExCup going into East Lake, a course he knows very well, having spent his college days as an All-American at nearby Georgia Tech.

"Now that I won The Barclays, it seems like there's a lot more excitement, a lot more well-wishers, people know I've got a chance to win the FedExCup and the $10 million," Kuchar said.

Who will join him in the top five? Who else will go into East Lake with a guarantee of winning the bonus simply by winning the tournament?

The four rounds at Cog Hill this week will provide the answer. Let the battles begin.