Fantasy Insider: BMW Championship

The top 70 in FedExCup points continue their chase after the $10 million first prize this week. Those that advance to THE TOUR Championship also get exemptions into the first three majors of 2011 if they're not already eligible.

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There is no cut at Cog Hill, so guys have nothing to lose, meaning they can get aggressive, especially those well outside the bubble. Last year, only two -- Marc Leishman (T2) and Luke Donald (T10) -- played their way into the finale from outside the top 30. Meanwhile, six guys -- Sergio Garcia (T6), Camilo Villegas (T8), Bill Haas (T10), Matt Kuchar (T10), Brandt Snedeker (T10) and Mark Wilson (T10) -- posted top 10s at Cog Hill and still didn't clinch a tee time at East Lake. Go low or go home.

In two weeks, my Fantasy Insider for THE TOUR Championship will hit the 20 guys that don't crack my Power Rankings. Therefore, no one goes uncovered.

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BMW CHAMPIONSHIP: Power Rankings | Inside the Field | Inside the Course

TOP PICKS: See Power Rankings for Jason Day, Luke Donald, Steve Stricker, Bubba Watson and Tiger Woods.

Ernie Els -- So much for defending his regular season title thus far. After a solo 71st at The Barclays and a T30 at the Deutsche Bank Championship, he's now seventh in FedExCup points. He ranked T54 in fairways and greens at TPC Boston. Pass.

Phil Mickelson -- Ballooned to a T25 at the Deutsche Bank with a Monday 76. Cog Hill never has been his cup of joe -- zero top 25s in 11 starts -- so if you have one start remaining, keep it tucked until East Lake.

Zach Johnson -- Because he puts his tee ball in the fairway more than most, he's a smart start at Cog Hill. He proved as much with last year's fifth-place payday. Tidy putting has saved an otherwise disposable iron game eight rounds into the Playoffs, so he's working around his issues. He co-led the Deutsche Bank after an opening, bogey-free 63. Safe investment this week.

Scott Verplank -- A sore left wrist forced him to withdraw from the Deutsche Bank Championship after 22 holes. He'll know on Wednesday afternoon if he can start. He was scheduled to get a cortisone shot on Monday night. Duffer leaguer's dream in this no-cutter.
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TOP PICKS: See Power Rankings for Stewart Cink, Jim Furyk and Adam Scott.

Charley Hoffman -- After weeks of flying under the radar with a flurry of performances during which he put together just three good rounds, Blondilocks assembled what arguably were the most important 18 holes of his life to rob the Deutsche Bank on the holiday. En route to the five-stroke romp, he was T5 in fairways hit, sixth in greens, fourth in putting and first in birdies. You couldn't find a hotter hand, although asking for back-to-back wins is a tall task.

Geoff Ogilvy -- His T2 at the Deutsche Bank was his first top 10 anywhere since his season-opening victory at the SBS Championship. A lethal combo of greens hit (T4) and putting (second) at TPC Boston led to 24 birdies (T2). Ogilvy typically makes his hay by minimizing mistakes, but we'll take the birdie binge anytime. Although he's been inconsistent this year, there are much worse options in Group B this week.

Hunter Mahan -- In a vacuum, he's one of the poster boys for the reckless abandon I like in these free-for-alls. He exhibited just that in winning at Firestone a month ago. If he's haphazard over his first three rounds, make sure to step off before his final 18, as he's had trouble closing since the WGC breakthrough.

Dustin Johnson -- I put the whammy on him last week by placing him No. 1 in my Power Rankings. Thanks primarily to bookend 73s, he finished a distant T57 instead. With that performance and last year's T30 at the BMW, it's time for a rest in our world.

Retief Goosen -- With a pair of top 25s in the Playoffs, he's gaining on us again. He's hitting an above-average number of greens, which makes him a sneaky threat this week.

Michael Sim -- Alternating six-figure paychecks with forgettable results over his last couple of months. He placed a very quiet T11 in his first Deutsche Bank, ranking T15 in fairways and T9 in greens hit. And I love him again this week even though he's getting his first look at Cog Hill. He can put the blinders on and take it deep. It's just his second no-cut event in his PGA TOUR career, but you can ignore his previous effort (68th, WGC-CA Championship) as he was nursing a sore right shoulder that would keep him out for two months immediately thereafter. At 53rd in FedExCup points, he's the one guy below Tiger Woods (51st) that I'm picking to give it a serious go for East Lake.

Bo Van Pelt -- Given his career year and all-around game, he deserved more buzz as a potential wildcard selection for the Ryder Cup squad, but the bright side is that he can now focus solely on the job at hand. He was in my crosshairs for this event before the Playoffs teed off. He's posted top 20s in his last two starts at Cog Hill, and finished T25 at TPC Boston on Monday. Although he's cooled since a T3 at Firestone, he's a sexy fantasy play this week.

Marc Leishman -- En route to his T2 here last year, he was T9 in greens and seventh in putting. He also swallowed just six bogeys (and nothing worse). The Aussie hasn't suffered a Sophomore Slump, but he's a much better long-term own as we learn more about him, and that was to be expected. Really no reason to take the plunge this week specifically. I typically like a minimum three years of results before getting jazzed up about anyone.

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TOP PICKS: See Power Rankings for Matt Kuchar and John Senden.

Ryan Palmer -- Bubba Watson's record at Cog Hill bumped Palmer from the Power Rankings, so it's not like I'm suddenly scared. Palmer chased a T5 at The Barclays with a T11 at the Deutsche Bank. He's hit over 71.5 percent of his greens in eight rounds in the Playoffs, and averaging over five birdies per round during that stretch. Keeping ridin' this hoss.

Brandt Snedeker -- It's poetic if not cruel that he's the first man outside the bubble at 31st in FedExCup points. It was at Cog Hill a year ago that he four-jacked the 72nd green to fall outside the top 30, failing to qualify for THE TOUR Championship and receive the automatic exemptions into the first three majors this year. After earning a berth into the U.S. Open via sectional qualifying, a T8 at Pebble Beach secured tee times at the first two majors in 2011, so the element of redemption this week is understandably subdued.

That aside, he's a nifty investment this week, as he's entering off a T5 at the Deutsche Bank and has a pair of top 15s in his last two appearances at the BMW. But you might want to sit him on Sunday if he starts the day in contention, as he averages 3.35 more strokes in the final round (71.76) after Moving Day (68.41).

D.J. Trahan -- First start at Cog Hill during the FedExCup Playoffs, but don't sweat it. As one of the TOUR's streakier performers, I'm green-lighting him this week. Comes in trending very nicely, with a T21 at The Barclays and solo 10th at the DBC in tow. Led the field in greens hit at TPC Boston and placed T4 in GIR at Ridgewood. That's his M.O. Go.

Angel Cabrera -- Hope you were on him last week when he appeared in my Power Rankings and finished T18 with four sub-70 rounds at TPC Boston, because it's time to bail. While he ranked T7 in greens hit at the Deutsche Bank and sits 10th on TOUR in greens in regulation from lies off the fairway, he remains one of the more predictable horse-for-course guys out there. In two showings at Cog Hill, he's finished T30 (2007) and T45 (2009).

Paul Casey -- He's a first-timer in the BMW. For what he lacks in sparkle, he more than compensates in reliability, and that's a major selling point in our game. He's posted four straight top 25s coming in, including a T25 at TPC Boston. He has 11 top 25s in 15 starts this year. He should love Cog Hill. He can kill or finesse at will. Ranks sixth in the all-around and eighth in adjusted scoring average.

Tim Clark -- He's probably been the last guy cut from these features more than any other. Just because guys don't appear here doesn't mean that I'm sour, but there's only so much space. However, with Clark failing to earn headlines, it's why you haven't read about him much. He's back in the fold this week because he has a pair of top fives at Cog Hill pre-redesign (2006, 2007), so there's a comfort level, but his approach game and putting lately is cause for continued avoidance.

Rob Bolton is PGATOUR.COM's new fantasy columnist. His views do not necessarily reflect those of the PGA TOUR. To contact Rob, please e-mail him at FantasyInsider@charter.net or http://twitter.com/RobBoltonGolf.