Johnson or Laird: Who'll be the better man at The Barclays on Sunday?

PARAMUS, N.J. -- There are 78 bunkers at Ridgewood, and all are clearly marked. For that fact alone, Dustin Johnson seems like a pretty good pick to win The Barclays on Sunday.

But as we realized a couple of weeks ago, when Johnson found one of the thousand or so bunkers at Whistling Straits, nothing is certain until all the scorecards are signed ... especially the ones with erasure marks.

THE BARCLAYS

Round 3 Wrap-up
Round 4 Tee Times
The Live Report
Leaderboard
Laird loving Ridgewood
FedExCup Movers
No fairways for Day
Tiger rallies after triple
The Starter: Round 4
Full Coverage

And as we realized a couple of months ago, when he took a three-shot lead into the final round of the U.S. Open, nothing is certain when Johnson is playing on Sunday. This is a player, after all, who ranks 179th on TOUR in fourth-round scoring average, a player who has just one fourth-round score in the 60s in his last 12 starts on TOUR.

On Sunday, posting 70 or higher isn't likely to get it done.

So really, just two things seem certain about the final round -- we'll once again have perfect weather, and we'll have a new leader in FedExCup points once things shake out in the late afternoon sun.

Ernie Els, No. 1 entering this week, is not in striking position after shooting a 73 on Saturday. He's tied for 66th and is currently projected to fall to seventh in the points standings.

Meanwhile, Johnson will begin the day three shots back of Martin Laird, and he'll have the Scotsman as his partner in the final pairing.

Johnson is the bigger name, and certainly the bigger basher. If anybody is going to catch Laird, Johnson would appear to be the most likely candidate. His bogey-free 64 on Saturday was the low round of the day. Johnson, Jason Day (9 under) and Adam Scott (8 under) are the only players within four shots of the lead

"I definitely put myself into the hunt going into tomorrow," Johnson said. "... If I can play like I did today, there's not too much out of reach."

But he'll need to get it done on Sunday. And that's been a problem.

Whether he's led early (U.S. Open) or led late (PGA), trouble seems to find him. Even when he successfully defended his title earlier this year at the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am, Johnson shot 74 on the final day, the highest final round by that tournament's champion in 16 years.

"If I can play like I did today, there's not too much out of reach."

-- Dustin Johnson

And in that 2009 win at Pebble Beach, he didn't even have to play the final round, due to torrential rain that wiped out the last 18 holes.

Johnson already has three TOUR wins, and he's still just 26. That bodes well for his future. But for him to become the dominant player that his marvelous skills should allow him to be, then he'll need to get past this messy Sunday issue.

A win on Sunday at The Barclays would be a golden step. And it might just be a step toward a possible Player of the Year award if he goes on to claim the FedExCup title.

But if you think Laird will be a pushover, you'd do well to re-evaluate your position.

His final-round scoring average of 71.15 this year is nearly two strokes better than Johnson's 72.73. A year ago, Laird was even better in the final round (70.36). His only TOUR win came last year in Las Vegas when he closed with a 68 to make a playoff.

And remember this: Two years ago at this very venue, Laird posted a final-round 67 to finish tied for seventh at The Barclays, allowing him to move inside the progressive cutline in FedExCup points and advance to the Deutsche Bank Championship.

"I know I'm capable of doing it again," Laird said.

There are horses for courses, and perhaps Laird is the horse for this course. After all, he's been raving about the course since he first saw it two years ago.

"I think it's the best one we play," he said.

If Laird, just a year older than Johnson, can handle the nerves, the pressure, and just play his game, he may find his name atop the FedExCup points list on Sunday.

Of course, that's easier said than done. This will be the first 54-hole lead Laird has held in his PGA TOUR career. And Sundays don't come easy. If you don't think so, just ask Johnson.