Fantasy Insider: Crowne Plaza Invitational at Colonial

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May. 26, 2010
By Rob Bolton, PGATOUR.COM Fantasy columnist

We're in the midst of a spectacular series of victories from good-to-great value picks in whom salary leaguers invested in early January: Jason Bohn, Rory McIlroy, Tim Clark, Adam Scott, Jason Day. As a result, it's been nice hearing from the regular emailers that usually only get in touch pre-draft. Clark entered the year as the only safe commodity even without a PGA TOUR victory on his resume; so, despite the $2.235M price tag, he wasn't expensive. That he claimed the circuit's largest bank deposit short of FedExCup annuities is the brass ring, as he has already exceeded his earnings from 2009.

With all five winners, patience has been rewarded in salary leagues, whose standings undoubtedly have been transformed. Meanwhile, owners of Zach Johnson, Henrik Stenson, Sean O'Hair, Stewart Cink, Mike Weir et al. will have to continue to sit on their hands, although even if any of those cats chalk up a win, it's still likely to result in a push come November.

MORE: Rookie Watch | Medical Extensions | Reshuffle | Major qualifiers

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TOP PICKS: See Power Rankings for Phil Mickelson and Scott Verplank.

Steve Stricker -- We're in relatively uncharted territory with the defending champion. He hasn't been forced out of action due to a physical problem since the 2008 Memorial, when he withdrew prior to that event with an elbow injury. Stricker returned at the U.S. Open at Torrey Pines, where he placed T29. He closed out that season with six top 25s in eight starts, but didn't revisit the winner's circle until Colonial last year. I expect him to be tentative and rusty, particularly with his distance control this week.

Jason Day -- You know the drill. I'm always hands off after a breakthrough victory, but this week's trap is compounding by the fact that he finished fourth here a year ago. For what it's worth, he led the field in putting at TPC Four Seasons and finished fourth in the same stat here in 2009, but he is not getting my endorsement this week.

Steve Marino -- Superb record here, including the playoff loss a year ago, when he finished T3 in greens hit. (Also suffered just two bogeys, lowest among the 74 that played 72 holes.) Colonial is exactly the kind of course on which you'd expect Marino to succeed. He can get aggressive and bounce back immediately from any hiccups. If you're not sold on Mickelson or Verplank, Yahoo! gamers should plug Marino into their lineups this week.

Heath Slocum -- With no top 25s in eight appearances here, you might be quick to overlook the veteran, but he's been tearing it up lately, with three six-figure paydays in his last four starts. He's also exceeded $1 million in his season's earnings for the seventh consecutive year. Sitting fourth in fairways hit and 12th in greens in regulation, he's a natural this week despite his record at Colonial.

Kenny Perry -- The all-time money leader and two-time champ of the Crowne Plaza Invitational finished T16 at last week's HP Byron Nelson Championship. It's his first top 20 in a full-field PGA TOUR event since winning the Travelers Championship 11 months ago. I'm not so much disappointed in the 49-year-old because I turned the page months ago. I slotted him 30th in my full-membership fantasy rankings, and he probably doesn't deserve that. In terms of the here-and-now, his tee-to-green game is coming around, but his putting has not. On a track like Colonial that yields low scores, KP could get lapped on the greens even though he should have his fill of birdie looks.

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TOP PICKS: See Power Rankings for Jim Furyk, Fredrik Jacobson, Sean O'Hair and Jeff Overton.

Brian Gay -- Bit of a tough call here since he was headed for another forgettable finish until lighting up TPC Four Seasons with a bogey-free 63 on Sunday to finish T2. And he made the cut on the number. It was an all-around terrific week, as he finished T1 in fairways hit, T7 in GIR and 10th in putting. I don't normally hop aboard bandwagons after one sick round, but his track record and experience at Colonial is too tempting to ignore. When I dig into my Yahoo! lineup, I might find a spot for him.

Picks for other formats
ONE-AND-DONE: Tim Clark. No. 2 in the Power Rankings, two-time runner-up here and coming off his breakthrough at TPC Sawgrass. (Rob's 2010 earnings: $2,477,582.00)
DUFFER: Derek Lamely. First-timer at Colonial. Has missed four straight cuts. Ranks 183rd in greens hit. (Rob's 2010 earnings: $365,192.80)
Rob's YAHOO! Stats: SEASON: 2,934 points (22,087th) ... SPRING: 1,005 points (48,179th)

Michael Sim -- Don't let the T23 at the HP Byron Nelson fool you. The Aussie hit just 40 of 72 greens, finishing T65 in GIR among the 71 that played 72 holes. I'd like one more event before I buy. Also a first-timer at Colonial.

Bo Van Pelt -- Took a well-deserved week off after a torrid stretch of three top fives and a T28 ending in San Antonio. He leads the TOUR in ball-striking and sits seventh in birdie average. That is a potent combination at Colonial, where he hasn't posted a top 45 since 2006, the final year of three straight top 20s. However, BVP is too dialed in right now to bypass.

Kevin Na -- Had just three bogeys en route to a T9 here a year ago, his second top 10 in three years at Colonial. (He didn't finish in the top 20 of any notable stat at last year's edition.) Although he's one of the most unpredictable touring pros, he's equally as tantalizing, but remains a better long-term own. Still, given his fit this week, I'm not sure yet if I'll be able to abstain in the Yahoo! game. You'll find out when my lineup appears in Wednesday's "Approach Shots."

Kevin Sutherland -- Finished T9 here last year and T15 in 2008, but he's currently on a T63-MC-MC run entering the week, his worst stretch since missing three consecutive cuts in late 2007. If he's going to snap out of it anywhere, Colonial is on the short list. Only if you're desperate ...

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TOP PICKS: See Power Rankings for Tim Clark, Ben Crane, Matt Kuchar and Davis Love III.

Ian Poulter -- I ignore jet lag in the short-term, but if anything, he'll benefit by an earlier flight from England after missing the cut in the BMW PGA Championship, his third MC in his last four starts worldwide. The Brit has a solid record here, with a pair of top 15s in as many appearances, so if you're saving starts on Crane or Kuchar, which is unlikely, Poulter is a safe hedge due to his record here and the fact that he might move on after missed cuts faster than anyone else.

Paul Casey -- Finished fifth at last year's Colonial in his only career start. Swallowed just four bogeys all week, and finished T13 in greens hit and 14th in putting. He's coming off a T17 at the BMW PGA Championship, where he was vocal about his disappointment in a redesigned Wentworth. Those words now aside, Colonial should suit Casey's eye. After a wonderful start to 2010, he's gone four events without a top 15, which suggests that his left shoulder is still niggling him a bit, but you can't bet against the guy.

Trevor Immelman -- Returning to action after inflammation in his wrist forced him to withdraw early from last week's HP Byron Nelson. He's 0-for-2 at Colonial anyway, so it's likely that you weren't even paying attention, but he still has value as a potential fade.

Rob Bolton is PGATOUR.COM's new fantasy columnist. His views do not necessarily reflect those of the PGA TOUR. To contact Rob, please e-mail him at FantasyInsider@charter.net.

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