Fantasy Insider: Best of the rest, others to avoid in Houston

text size
Increase Text Size
Decrease Text Size

Email This Story Print This Story RSS
Mar. 30, 2010
By Rob Bolton, PGATOUR.COM Fantasy columnist

The Spring Segment of the Yahoo! game starts this week. Click here for my analysis of the Winter Segment and what to expect over the next 12 weeks.

COLUMN-Bolton-183x90.jpg
Got a fantasy question for Rob? Click here to e-mail him. You can also follow Rob on his Twitter account.

This is a classic trap week. While it shouldn't be treated differently than any other non-major, it's impossible not to look ahead to the Masters next week, not to mention Tiger Woods' return to competition. Just stick to your preseason plan of saving the big boys for the big time, and don't get caught up in the what-if scenarios that plague your competition.

The field for the Shell Houston Open is predictably deep. As of Tuesday afternoon, 31 in the field at Masters are teeing it up at Redstone's Tournament Course on Thursday. It has been dry in the Houston area recently, so the typically fast greens should be running true until a system moves in on Friday. So, before you set your lineups, take one final peek at the weather forecast. It's possible that the early-late draw will be impacted in the second round.

MORE: Rookie Watch | Medical Extensions | Reshuffle | Major qualifiers

groupA.jpg

TOP PICKS: See Power Rankings for Ernie Els, Anthony Kim and Bubba Watson.

Phil Mickelson -- In the absence of Tiger Woods, Lefty has been the hot-button guy. When he's cracked my Power Rankings, I'll get emails of disagreement. Predictably, since he didn't make my cut for the same feature this week, my email in-box has been peppered with curiosity as to why not. The confusion across the landscape is understandable. Mickelson has yet to play a full 72 holes without showcasing at least one dynamic performance. Talk is cheap and his fantasy owners want results. My approach has been to bury him on my bench just about every time he's in a field, and I've still burned just one start. It's what he's earned.

Vijay Singh -- OK, so you know that he's had to withdraw late from his last two commitments due to his nagging back, but that doesn't bother me. I was concerned at the top of the year when he announced (during his recovery from a second knee surgery) that he was adding European Tour membership to his agenda. I wondered then when he'd rest his aging bones. Well, that's precisely what he's been able to do the last two weeks. Meanwhile, you have to ignore the fact that he's a three-time winner in Houston. Since the event migrated to its current venue, Singh has cashed just once (T36, 2006) in two starts. Expect him not to overdo it at Redstone, instead using it as a primer for the Masters.

Justin Leonard -- The Texan has supported this event very well over time, and he's found his form recently, with a T17 at the Honda and T20 at the Transitions. Last year, he had just two bogeys or worse over his first 54 holes (and hit all 18 greens in his third round) but a sloppy 76 in the final round resulted in a T19 payday. Therefore, he's a mild sleeper on the rise.

Luke Donald -- Continues to get the most out of his 5'9" frame. He shot a pair of 73s en route to missing the cut here last year, his only appearance since the move to the host course in '06. And he was performing similarly well entering the event, so it's likely just a matter of familiarity for the new daddy. Redstone's length precludes him as a contender, and there are better shot-making tracks at which the Brit should be more highly regarded.
________________________________________________________________________________________

groupB.jpg

TOP PICKS: See Power Rankings for Fred Couples, Padraig Harrington, Hunter Mahan and Kevin Streelman.

Ben Curtis -- The solo sixth at the Arnold Palmer Invitational was cool (he was T4 in GIR), and I slotted him 49th in my preseason full-membership fantasy rankings, but even when he wins, I don't get too excited. At best, he's middle-round roster filler for long-term formats. Oh, and he's chased a top 10 with a top 20 just once in his career. That occurred during his ridiculous run in the second half of 2008.

Picks for other formats
ONE-AND-DONE: Fred Couples. Looking at the guys that I've already burned, I kept coming back to Boom Boom. (Rob's 2010 earnings: $2,138,913.00)
DUFFER: Chris Baryla. With a 1-for-6 season, the Nationwide Tour grad has not convinced that he has overcome issues stemming from his shoulder dislocation. (Rob's 2010 earnings: $186,500.00)
Rob's YAHOO! Stats: 1,929 points (14,360th)

Geoff Ogilvy -- I hate to admit it but Ogilvy might be the biggest tease on TOUR. It's not that he doesn't have premium fantasy value, but he gives you no reason to invest on a consistent basis. I'm even a little disenfranchised in my rotisserie league because he's my first-round draft pick (3rd overall), and he's just not performing (no top 25s in four stroke-play starts worldwide since winning at Kapalua). At the SHO, he placed T6 in 2009 and T2 in 2008, so if all you care about is course history, he's your guy.

Lee Westwood -- Finished T2 in greens in regulation here last year en route to a T11 finish. The larger greens could be an elixir for his recent substandard iron play. If he doesn't figure it out soon, he'll be overvalued at the Masters.

Rory McIlroy -- I would like to believe that this is the ideal site for him to snap out of it. He was T19 last year in his only career appearance, so since this is just his third start in the Yahoo! format, you might want to consider a spot on the bench this week.

Kevin Sutherland -- He's probably the most forgotten yet consistent performer on the PGA TOUR. He's ninth in greens hit this year and 18th in the all-around ranking. He's also posted three top 25s in four starts since 2006. Potential final-round fodder for the Yahoo! game.

________________________________________________________________________________________

groupC.jpg

TOP PICKS: See Power Rankings for Paul Casey, Martin Kaymer and Matt Kuchar.

Davis Love III -- Cashed at Bay Hill (T14) for the first time in five starts since Corey Pavin tabbed DL3 as an assistant captain for the Ryder Cup. Love entered the year with the intent to just have fun and not worry about gripping for a trip to Augusta National. Well, only a win in Houston would change his plans next week. For what it's worth, he led the field in birdies at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, with 25, but I won't be looking below the three guys here that were featured in my Power Rankings.

D.J. Trahan -- Overcame back soreness to finish a strong T7 last week, extending his string of top 20s to four. He's played here just once, posting a solo eighth in 2007, and he's currently seventh on TOUR in greens in regulation.

Brandt Snedeker -- I recently suggested that you hold off until he solves his problems with the putter. He hasn't so I'm holding you to it. Has competed just once at Redstone's Tournament Course, missing the cut in 2007.

John Mallinger -- He's 1-for-8 on the year, and that was a solo 69th at Pebble Beach. Probably getting a lot of attention from Duffer Leaguers.

Rob Bolton is PGATOUR.COM's new fantasy columnist. His views do not necessarily reflect those of the PGA TOUR. To contact Rob, please e-mail him at FantasyInsider@charter.net.

Email This Story   Print This Story   RSS   Bookmark and Share
SHOP.PGATOUR.COM
PGATOUR shop

Shop your favorite brand name golf equipment and accessories at SHOP.PGATOUR.COM

FANTASY

Click Here
© 1995-2012 PGA TOUR, Inc. | Turner Sports Interactive, Inc. All Rights Reserved. PGA TOUR, Champions Tour, Nationwide Tour and the swinging golfer logo are registered trademarks.
Turner PGATOUR.com is part of Turner Sports Digital, part of the Turner Sports & Entertainment Digital Network