Power Rankings: Arnold Palmer Invitational

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With Ernie Els and Jim Furyk hoisting trophies the last two weeks, I had to stare at my wall calendar to confirm that it's really 2010. What's that old saying about the more things change, the more they come full circle ...

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The core of the elite is peaking. You know that's the case when Phil Mickelson barely cracks this feature. I could have furnished a solid Power Rankings 2.0 this week, but I'm sticking with the chalk.

Bay Hill played as a par 70 of over 7,100 yards for three years -- it was the most difficult track of any non-major in 2009, playing at +2.190 strokes to par -- but a renovation can stretch Arnold Palmer's baby to 7,400 yards if necessary. It is once again a par 72, as it was from 1990-2006.

"We're going to give [the field] an opportunity to make birdies," Palmer said in October. As a result, I'm leaning heavily on the birdie or better percentage on par 5s. It intertwines with many that enter the week playing very well, a few of which are included below.

The long-range weather forecast includes a threat of rain on Friday that might bleed into Saturday. The temperature will crack 80 every day and winds are expected to be light.

Power Rankings: Arnold Palmer Invitational

Rank Player   Comment Ernie ELS Perennial participant since 1993 (and '98 champ), but hasn't entered since '07. Closed out the WGC-CA Championship with bogey-free 66, where he led the field in birdies and finished T2 in greens hit. First on TOUR in birdies or better percentage on par 5s. Jim FURYK Final-round 69 at Copperhead included just eight pars, but a win is a win is a win, his first since the 2007 Canadian Open. He was T4 in greens and third in putting at the Transitions. Admitted that he is playing with more feel. Retief GOOSEN He has four top-six finishes in six starts this season, including a solo fifth last week. In 10 appearances at Bay Hill, he's posted four top 20s. Currently fifth on TOUR in birdies or better on par 5s. Steve STRICKER Finished T8 at Transitions despite weekend 71s. No one has been more consistent in '10, which explains why he's No. 1 in earnings and FedExCup points. Because it was eons ago in terms of his career, I'm ignoring his suspect history at Bay Hill. Camilo VILLEGAS Took a well-deserved week off after what is the best start to a season in his career. He leads the TOUR in scoring average, birdie average and birdies or better on par 4s. Still only 28, I'm not concerned that his best showing in three Palmers is a T44 in '08. Robert ALLENBY Shrugged off missed cut at the Honda with a T11 at Doral, his last start. Given the prerequisite to hit greens at Bay Hill, you'd expect Allenby to fare well. And he's never putted better coming in - 21st on TOUR. Also first in the all-around ranking. Nick WATNEY Coming off season-best fourth-place finish at Copperhead, where he led the field in putting and ranked T2 in birdies. Placed T4 at last year's Palmer, when he was T2 in greens hit and T1 in birdies. Also finished T21 in 2008 here. Justin ROSE He's had a superb Florida swing, with a solo third at The Honda Classic and T13 at the Transitions. Sits eighth in scoring average. Finished a career-best T8 at Bay Hill in 2006, the last time it played as a par 72. Phil MICKELSON It's been a slow start, but he has four top 25s in five events. He's third in birdies or better on par 5s, which portends well this week. Had just one bogey in a final-round 68 at Doral, his last competitive round. Won Bay Hill in 1997. Charl SCHWARTZEL The 25-year-young South African is realizing his potential in 2010 with two wins in his homeland and a runner-up at the WGC-CA Championship, where he carded a respectable 70 in the final group.