Fantasy Insider: Handicapping the 2010 q-school grads
By Rob Bolton, PGATOUR.COM Fantasy columnist
Q-school is about dreams fulfilled and new beginnings, so I'm going be the bad guy for many even before the first peg of the 2011 PGA TOUR season pierces the turf on a tee box.
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Fact is, if 10 of the 25 graduates crack the top 125 on the money list, it'll be a bumper crop. A whopping 11 emerged from the 2010 class. That was up from eight in 2009 and seven in 2008. And there's really no such thing as a can't-miss star in waiting. A male golfer's career bell curve generally peaks in his early 30s, so it's always wise to refrain from making comparisons of potential in this sport with its counterpart in another.
You already know that one of the more exciting elements of participating in fantasy sports is early adoption, but it will backfire more often than not in fantasy golf. Resist from investing in too many highly-touted rookies as all honeymoons end. It's simply not worth the short-term exhilaration at the start of the year. Rickie Fowler, for one, is the anomaly, not the rule.
Below are fantasy projections on all 29 in the 2010 q-school class. For projections on the 25 Nationwide Tour graduates, click here. All of the grads will be included in my full-membership fantasy rankings later this month.
Billy Mayfair
Age as of January 1, 2011: 44
World Ranking (as of Dec. 13, 2010): 403
2011 fantasy projection: Top 125
Rob's Riff: Rebounded from career hiccup in 2009, making 26 starts this year while on Past Champion status and finishing 142nd in earnings. Good stuff even before taking q-school by a shot. This is a top-heavy class, and given his mild revival, go ahead and plug him back into the bottom half of your roster. A set-and-forget guy.
William McGirt
* * * ROOKIE * * *
Age as of January 1, 2011: 31
World Ranking (as of Dec. 13, 2010): 466
2011 fantasy projection: 126-150
Rob's Riff: Long-time eGolf Tour grinder got his first career break when he qualified for the final stage of q-school. He parlayed it into 24 starts on the Nationwide Tour this year, and finished 34th in earnings. Steady, unspectacular journeymen entering their prime are potential rubies in the rough for fantasy gamers. (Think Bill Lunde or Jeff Klauk.) Their skin is thicker and maturity is part of the package. Starting the year near the top of the reshuffle is gravy.
Ben Martin
* * * ROOKIE * * *
Age as of January 1, 2011: 23
World Ranking (as of Dec. 13, 2010): 1,320
2011 fantasy projection: 151+
Rob's Riff: Given his runner-up at the 2009 U.S. Amateur, he has more cachet than most in this class. He turned the final stage of q-school into an open-book quiz, with just 11 bogeys (and nothing worse) all week. Shot 1-under 71-71=142 in the final two rounds, and still managed co-runner-up. However (as the other shoe thuds), while he was a stud at Clemson, he doesn't have the kind of pedigree overall that gives reason to ignore his youth in the fantasy game. Wouldn't mind seeing him log a full year as a pro before exhausting a roster spot.
Cameron Tringale
Age as of January 1, 2011: 23
World Ranking (as of Dec. 13, 2010): 539
2011 fantasy projection: 126-150
Rob's Riff: I was cool on this former top-shelf amateur as a rookie in 2010, and he fulfilled my expectation. With a year under his belt, and an impressive showing at q-school validating flashes of brilliance in the Fall Series, expect an increase in consistency in 2011. His putting has to/will improve or he'll give you fits. And he's starting the year significantly higher in the reshuffle than he sat at any point in 2010. That will give him the opportunity to find a groove early and develop a full schedule. Made just 22 starts this year.
Jarrod Lyle
Age as of January 1, 2011: 29
World Ranking (as of Dec. 13, 2010): 352
2011 fantasy projection: Top 125
Rob's Riff: As a golf fan, there isn't anything about the Aussie that I don't love. He's gritty, mature, lacks a short-term memory and grinds with the best of them. As a fantasy analyst, I'm slightly less interested, but that's barely worth the mention. Has the game to have a torrid week, but could use a little tightening of the screws in his short game. Nevertheless, now that he's healthy (again), he's a no-brainer for the fantasy gamer.
Michael Putnam
Age as of January 1, 2011: 27
World Ranking (as of Dec. 13, 2010): 348
2011 fantasy projection: Top 125
Rob's Riff: One of two Nationwide Tour grads to survive q-school; Justin Hicks is the other. Putnam makes a serious climb in the reshuffle as a result (35 spots), but I was already sold on next year. See my Nationwide Tour fantasy projections.
Brandt Jobe
Age as of January 1, 2011: 45
World Ranking (as of Dec. 13, 2010): 304
2011 fantasy projection: 126-150
Rob's Riff: Oldest of this q-school class and one of the best stories of the lot. A nasty fluke injury to his left hand in 2006 forced him to consider retirement after his 2008 season. Failure to meet the terms of his medical extension in 2009 led to a return to Japan, where's he won six times in the 1990s. A T64 at q-school allowed for a full schedule on this year's Nationwide Tour, where he finished 30th in earnings. He's just three paydays short of qualifying for Veteran Membership on the PGA TOUR, but gets the full ride in 2011 anyway. Don't be disappointed if you're thinking about calling his name in the wee hours of your draft, as he'll provide a little punch.
Zack Miller
* * * ROOKIE * * *
Age as of January 1, 2011: 26
World Ranking (as of Dec. 13, 2010): 519
2011 fantasy projection: 126-150
Rob's Riff: His talent precedes his realized value given that he's on the fast track. As a rookie on the Nationwide Tour this year, he finished 56th in earnings. A native Californian and captain of Stanford's NCAA Championship squad in 2007, he has to love starting his year on the West Coast. A sum-is-greater-than-his-parts guy, he shapes up as a medium-risk fantasy investment. If he starts the year as a free agent in the deepest formats, it's likely that he won't remain one for long. Suffered just nine bogeys (nothing worse) at q-school.
Kyle Stanley
* * * ROOKIE * * *
Age as of January 1, 2011: 23
World Ranking (as of Dec. 13, 2010): 356
2011 fantasy projection: 126-150
Rob's Riff: The two-time runner-up at the NCAA Championship has teased us with cameos the last couple of years, showcasing his eventual rise to the game's top level. He led the Nationwide Tour this year in distance off the tee (317.7 yards) and had six top 10s, but finished 35th in earnings. His strength and experience alone warrants the projection, but he won't be instructing any classes in course management anytime soon. Wild ride on tap in 2011.
Paul Stankowski
Age as of January 1, 2011: 41
World Ranking (as of Dec. 13, 2010): 394
|2011 fantasy projection: Top 125
Rob's Riff: For any long-time fantasy gamers, it'll be like playing Turn Back the Clock at your draft. When he clinched his card, he said that he wants to win on the PGA TOUR for the first time as a father. His kids are 11 and eight years of age, which gives some perspective on just how long it's been since he's held hardware on golf's big stage (1997 Sony Open in Hawaii). In his heyday, he was a birdie machine and steady performer in all aspects of the game. Not much has changed other than he has regained the opportunity to play a full schedule.
Gary Woodland
Age as of January 1, 2011: 26
World Ranking (as of Dec. 13, 2010): 592
2011 fantasy projection: 151+
Rob's Riff: Endured a disjointed year after returning from surgery to repair a torn labrum in his left shoulder. He fell short of meeting the terms of his medical extension on the PGA TOUR, and failed to crack a top 10 in nine paydays on the Nationwide Tour. Despite it all, he's maintained a tremendous attitude and long-term outlook. Still, he's struggled avoiding the big number, and hasn't yet established a comfort zone at this level to validate fantasy ownership. A fun investment, however, if you want to play home-run ball.
Chris Baryla
* * * ROOKIE * * *
Age as of January 1, 2011: 28
World Ranking (as of Dec. 13, 2010): 471
2011 fantasy projection: 151+
Rob's Riff: Blistered Orange County National's Crooked Cat in the second round of q-school with 11 birdies in a bogey-free 61. He broke 71 just one other time all week, that a 66 in the final round to climb inside the cutline for his card. Co-led the field in birdies for the week with 33. He's exempt all year, but will have a medical extension in play as well. Should he earn $762,723 in his first 16 starts, he'll get elevated to the Major Medical category, which does not reshuffle. His hip (torn labrum) is healed following surgery on April 19. He suffers from spinal stenosis, but mashes it off the tee. Finished 19th in earnings on the Nationwide Tour (and finished second in the all-around ranking) in 2009 in just 14 starts. Give him a few reps before taking the plunge as he returns full-time.
Nate Smith
* * * ROOKIE * * *
Age as of January 1, 2011: 27
World Ranking (as of Dec. 13, 2010): 290
2011 fantasy projection: 126-150
Rob's Riff: Slipped from 24th to 27th on the 2010 Nationwide Tour money list at the season finale, but finds himself in the middle of the reshuffle now. Rebounded from an opening 73 at q-school with a 56-hole stretch of bogey-free 14-under golf that started on his opening nine in the second round. He does his handiwork on and around greens, which qualifies him as a sleeper in fantasy formats.
Scott Stallings
* * * ROOKIE * * *
Age as of January 1, 2011: 25
World Ranking (as of Dec. 13, 2010): 562
2011 fantasy projection: 151+
Rob's Riff: Has never played in a PGA TOUR event. Fell short of a 2010 card by one stroke at '09 q-school. Went 19-for-28 on Nationwide Tour this year with three top 10s, finishing 53rd in earnings. Give him time to adapt to his newest digs.
Bi-o Kim
* * * ROOKIE * * *
Age as of January 1, 2011: 20
World Ranking (as of Dec. 13, 2010): 544
2011 fantasy projection: 151+
Rob's Riff: Emerging talent from South Korea played in just seven events that qualify for world-ranking points this year. Was Rookie of the Year on the Korean PGA, and won the scoring title. Also led his circuit in putting. Started the final round of q-school in third place, but closed with a 75 to finish T11. If you must, save for a flier in the final round as no one outside of his inner circle is expecting anything from the youngest member of the 2011 PGA TOUR.
Matt McQuillan
* * * ROOKIE * * *
Age as of January 1, 2011: 29
World Ranking (as of Dec. 13, 2010): 994
2011 fantasy projection: 151+
Rob's Riff: The journeyman was aided by having veteran caddie, Gary Matthews, on his bag at q-school. (Matthews has worked for Sergio Garcia, Tim Clark, Camilo Villegas and Michelle Wie.) All three of McQuillan's PGA TOUR-sanctioned starts were on the Nationwide Tour ... in 2005. The native Canuck made six starts on the Canadian Tour this year, finishing 46th in earnings. He also cashed in 11 of 15 eGolf Tour events, but had just one top 10 (T10 in February) and placed 32nd on the money list. Let him go his rookie year on the PGA TOUR alone.
Michael Thompson
* * * ROOKIE * * *
Age as of January 1, 2011: 25
World Ranking (as of Dec. 13, 2010): 1,320
2011 fantasy projection: Top 125
Rob's Riff: Every now and then, even I get giddy about possibilities. Then, virtually instantaneously, disappointment settles in that I have to share my insight if I'm worth my salt. It goes with the territory. Well, this fella has my attention. The former first-team All-American at Alabama and 2007 U.S. Amateur runner-up was the Hooters Tour Player of the Year in 2010. Love his body frame and realistic approach to his career. Alas, with limited experience on the PGA TOUR (six starts, including three as an amateur), his rookie year will be but a grind, but one worth the investment. Unless you are the only ringer in your fantasy league, then there's no chance that Thompson slides into steal range.
Joseph Bramlett
* * * ROOKIE * * *
Age as of January 1, 2011: 22
World Ranking (as of Dec. 13, 2010): 1,320
2011 fantasy projection: 151+
Rob's Riff: Much will be made of his African heritage all year, so it will take consistent, superb results to adjust the focus primarily to his game. Co-led q-school with 33 birdies, so that's a start. Beset by a pair of wrist injuries that prevented him from collegiate golf over his final year and a half. Missed the cut in both PGA TOUR starts this year. Subject of two Twitter posts from fellow Stanford product, Tiger Woods, which may or may not add some pressure on his rookie year. The Bay Area native is benefited by a start on the West Coast, but he's a giant risk in fantasy games.
Sung-hoon Kang
* * * ROOKIE * * *
Age as of January 1, 2011: 23
World Ranking (as of Dec. 13, 2010): 516
2011 fantasy projection: 151+
Rob's Riff: Only grad that failed to break 70 in any of the last four rounds, which illustrates that he has a strong stomach. Finished T98 at the 2009 q-school, but did not play the Nationwide Tour this year, choosing to return to his native South Korea and a schedule in Asia. In fact, he's never teed it up in a PGA TOUR-sanctioned event. He was a member of his homeland's championship team at the Doha Asian Games in 2006. Not particularly long or accurate off the tee, he relies primarily on his irons and short game, which means that his spots to score will be limited above and beyond the challenge of learning the rotation of host sites.
Kent Jones
Age as of January 1, 2011: 43
World Ranking (as of Dec. 13, 2010): 522
2011 fantasy projection: 151+
Rob's Riff: Sorry, but you already know what you get here. In a PGA TOUR career that started at the 1996 U.S. Open, he's gone 162-for-323 with just one top five (T5, 2010 Reno-Tahoe Open). Has never finished inside the top 100 in earnings, but has cracked the top 125 four times. Only if you go 200 deep in your league.
James Driscoll
Age as of January 1, 2011: 33
World Ranking (as of Dec. 13, 2010): 390
2011 fantasy projection: 126-150
Rob's Riff: Of the 29 graduates, his closing 75-72=147 was three strokes higher than anyone else. If only he could piece together four rounds like his opening 72 more often. He an easy guy for whom to root, but he's spent too many years now on the fringe of relevance in our world. That said, he's in his prime, so his value may never been better. Just let someone else invest.
Alexandre Rocha
* * * ROOKIE * * *
Age as of January 1, 2011: 33
World Ranking (as of Dec. 13, 2010): 1,256
2011 fantasy projection: 126-150
Rob's Riff: First Brazilian to earn a PGA TOUR card since Jaime Gonzalez was a member in 1981 ... Only top 20 on a tour recognized by the world rankings in the last two years was a T13 in Finland in August 2009. A journeyman's journeyman. He's the only first-team All-American out of Mississippi State (2000), where several of his scoring records still stand. After he opened with a 66 at The Honda Classic in March, where he Monday-qualified (and pre-qualified), in one of the better post-round pressers of the year, he said, "I needed a day like today like if -- you have no idea how, and it was for nobody. It's for myself first and foremost. ... For the kid in me, you know, that kid that used to dream about this stuff, he needed that." He closed strong at q-school, with a trio of 68s to sneak inside the number on his final nine. You're never supposed to draft with your heart, and Rocha will be the latest test of your willpower. Given his path, age and evolved mindset, he could turn out to be one of the best feel-good stories of 2011.
Jim Renner
* * * ROOKIE * * *
Age as of January 1, 2011: 27
World Ranking (as of Dec. 13, 2010): n/a
2011 fantasy projection: 151+
Rob's Riff: The one-time teammate of Anthony Kim's at Oklahoma State caddied for AK en route to his victory at the 2004 Northeast Amateur. Renner transferred to NAIA Johnson & Wales, where he led the school to the national championship in 2005. Also owns the dubious distinction of losing to Michelle Wie in the third round of the '05 U.S. Amateur Public Links Championship (Wie lost her next match). Missed the cut at the 2008 Transitions Championship, his only start on the PGA TOUR; he's also 0-for-1 on the Nationwide Tour. Given his inexperience at this level and starting position in the reshuffle, he is not an advisable own in fantasy formats.
Richard S. Johnson
Age as of January 1, 2011: 34
World Ranking (as of Dec. 13, 2010): 183
2011 fantasy projection: 126-150
Rob's Riff: The last of the three PGA TOUR winners in this class (Billy Mayfair, Paul Stankowski). Excruciatingly short off the tee, you'll either invest late or hop on his bandwagon when he's putting well and he shows up at a tight venue. Won in his native Sweden in July, but remains intent on a U.S.-based schedule. Finished 135th in earnings on the PGA TOUR this year, so his successful run at q-school was worth a gain of nearly 25 spots in the overall pecking order. In eight years on the PGA TOUR with some form of status, he's cracked the top 125 four times, but the top 115 just once.
Andres Gonzales
* * * ROOKIE * * *
Age as of January 1, 2011: 27
World Ranking (as of Dec. 13, 2010): 844
2011 fantasy projection: 151+
Rob's Riff: After one year at Oregon State (2001-02), he transferred to UNLV, where Ryan Moore was a teammate. Has cashed in all three PGA TOUR starts, but none for a top 60. Secured 2011 PGA TOUR card with a bogey-free, 2-under 34 on his final nine, making the cut by two. Good thing for Joe Affrunti that Gonzales wasn't a Nationwide Tour member in 2010, as Affrunti would have had some serious competition en route to his title in the fourth annual "Mustache Week" (in September). Gonzales sports an impressive Fu Manchu, so keep that in mind if you make the mistake of investing in him and come up dry on a team name.
Justin Hicks
* * * ROOKIE * * *
Age as of January 1, 2011: 36
World Ranking (as of Dec. 13, 2010): 453
2011 fantasy projection: 151+
Rob's Riff: One of two Nationwide Tour grads (Michael Putnam) to survive q-school, although Hicks didn't improve his number even though he finished 25th in earnings on the developmental circuit and T22 at q-school. His 70-71=141 in the final two rounds was worst among the five at T22, so he would have slotted in the 26th position among q-school grads. That would have been two spots below what he earned via the Nationwide Tour. With that out of the way, you'll see that I wasn't on board anyway in my Nationwide Tour fantasy projections in early November.
Scott Gordon
* * * ROOKIE * * *
Age as of January 1, 2011: 29
World Ranking (as of Dec. 13, 2010): n/a
2011 fantasy projection: 151+
Rob's Riff: While he had non-exempt status on the Nationwide Tour this year, he didn't play due to an injury in his left wrist that remains undiagnosed. In the first stage of q-school this fall, he separated his left shoulder on the penultimate hole of his third round. (He parred his final two holes, and then grinded out a painful 73 in the final round to advance.) Played the Nationwide Tour full-time in 2008, but cashed in just four of 26 events. Given that the rookie is starting 49th in the reshuffle and has never played in a PGA TOUR event, if he doesn't get off to a hot start, it could be a long year, with or without any recurrence of injuries.
Billy Horschel
* * * ROOKIE * * *
Age as of January 1, 2011: 24
World Ranking (as of Dec. 13, 2010): 1,216
2011 fantasy projection: Top 125
Rob's Riff: A successful run at q-school lifted him seven spots in the reshuffle (to 50th) from where he would have started 2011 on a medical extension instead. To that end, short of a victory, if he earns $786,977 in his first 19 starts, then he'll get elevated to the Major Medical category. Worst case, he'll remain in the reshuffle. With just four starts on the PGA TOUR this year, he'll retain his rookie status, but given his firepower, pedigree and balance in life (newlywed as of Nov. 6), he's a low-risk investment in long-term formats. Just remain patient and hope for a fast start. He might even come cheap given that some might be scared off following his left wrist injury and subsequent surgery.
Will Strickler
* * * ROOKIE * * *
Age as of January 1, 2011: 24
World Ranking (as of Dec. 13, 2010): 1,041
2011 fantasy projection: 151+
Rob's Riff: Probably better than he thinks he is. At 6'5", 190 lbs., has a tremendous body for the game, just lacks the experience at this level. He's made just one start in a PGA TOUR-sanctioned event, finishing T32 at the inaugural Winn-Dixie Jacksonville Open on the Nationwide Tour in October, where he ranked sixth in distance off the tee. He starts 51st in the reshuffle, last among all q-school and Nationwide Tour grads, so the West Coast Swing will be another q-school of sorts for former teammate of Billy Horschel and Matt Every at the University of Florida. There is very little reason to call Strickler's name on draft day as he may only make three starts before the first reshuffle.
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