The Fantasy Insider: World Golf Championships-CA Champ.
By Scott Pianowski, The Fantasy Insider
The Blue Monster at Doral feels like an old friend, and we're looking at a ridiculously loaded field as this World Golf Championship event, so make sure you budget four days of viewing time this week. Keep in mind the World Golf Championships-CA Championship shifted to Doral in 2007, so it's also important to consider Doral Open history up to 2006 as a key to handicapping this tournament. Let's go get tangled up in Blue.
PGATOUR.com Fantasy Golf -- here are the rules in a nutshell:
We're picking eight players every week from three separate pools: Two players from the A-List, four players from the B-List, and two players from the C-List. From round to round, you'll "start" four of those players (one of your A players, two from B, one from C), making daily changes as you see fit. If your guys play well that day or for the week, you score well. The eight players you pick at the beginning of the week are the only ones you can use and switch up during a particular tournament; the next week, you'll re-evaluate and refresh your group of eight.
You're allowed to use any player up to 10 starts for the year, and anything from 1-4 rounds in a given event counts as a single "start." As always, choose carefully, and have a long-term plan in addition to your short-term goals.
A-List Selections
Geoff Ogilvy (Round 1 starter): You can argue that he's the No. 2 player in the world right now, and he's been a smash since the World Golf Championships-CA Championships moved here: Ogilvy won the event last season and tied for third in 2007. If the weather is tranquil, and the event becomes a birdiefest, Ogilvy certainly has the game to go low and paint the leaderboard red. If the wins kick up, and it becomes more about grinding, no problem -- Ogilvy's match-play record and major-event resume speaks for itself. No matter how they want to play it this week, look for Ogilvy to be in the hunt.
Tiger Woods: It's hard to find courses that Tiger doesn't like, but the Blue Monster has fit his eye particularly over the years; he won here in 2005, 2006, and 2007, and his other two visits weren't too shabby either (fifth last year, tie for ninth in 1998). But who's to say how sharp Woods is right now after having just two public rounds to digest? My compromise with Woods is this: Put him on the roster, but don't activate him unless you feel you have to on the weekend (remember the bonus points you grab for a top-three finish). We have to be careful with his 10 starts, and let's not burn one unless we really need to.
Other A-List Options: It's hard to know where Vijay Singh is after the knee procedure, but this looks like a track where he can get his groove back. He's never won at Doral, but his results at the Blue Monster speak for themselves (15, 3, 5, 3, 36, cut, 13, 2, 12, 75) ... Ernie Els has a Doral win in his back pocket (2002) along a handful of other deep runs, and while he didn't contend last year, he was 11th in 2007. Everything looks good from the Big Easy tee-to-green these days; it's just a matter of getting the putter to play along (109th in putting average)
Jim Furyk can win anywhere, but his chances certainly go up if the winds enter the equation; he's as good a grinder as you'll find on the circuit. He tied for second here last season, and he's always liked coming to the Blue Monster (second in 2003, win in 2000, tied for ninth in 1998) ... Phil Mickelson's track record at Doral is nothing to be ashamed of (eight of 10 cuts, second in 2005), but when you've got the ability that Lefty has, we expect more. Although he's grabbed a top-25 check at Doral on seven different occasions, he's only cracked the top 10 once ...
Sergio Garcia looked oh-so-close to breaking out at times at The Honda Classic, eventually settling for a tie for 13th. He's been in the hunt both seasons since the CA Championship moved here, finishing 15th last year and third in 2007. With a little more confidence in the bag entering this week, I expect him to make another deep run ... There's no doubting Anthony Kim's ability, and he's capable of making a run anytime for any reason, but it's his first visit to Doral and obviously this is a stacked field, so I'll play the waiting game and save my AK starts for another week
Camilo Villegas finished tied for second at the last Doral Open in 2006, and he's already grabbed three six-figure checks this season, so he's a fine play if you don't mind excusing his missed cut at The Honda Classic. His putting was a little balky last week, but that's not going to be a long-term problem with this kid ... Padraig Harrington decided to come back to Doral this year after skipping the event in 2008. His last three Blue Monster stops have been ordinary, given his ability and expectations (T19, T26, T52), and he hasn't done a thing in his last three PGA TOUR events (two missed cuts and a first-round loss at the World Golf Championships-Accenture Match Play Championship). Let Paddy play out of his slump before you come back to him
Stewart Cink usually finishes around the top 25 when he comes to Doral, but he hasn't made a serious run since his tie for 12th in 2001. Given how loaded the A-List is this week, Cink won't be on my starting roster ... Robert Allenby can strike the ball with anyone when he's sharp; it's just a matter of how many putts he's going to make. He's fresh off a strong tie for fifth at The Honda Classic (though he left some birdies on the table Sunday), and he grabbed a third-place check at this event two years ago.
B-List Selections
Zach Johnson (Round 1 starter): He didn't make the cut in his last stroke-play event, but Johnson's three prior starts were outstanding (win, T12, T6) and now he heads to a course he's comfortable on (T9, T9, T15, T3 the last four seasons). Johnson enters this week fifth in greens in regulation, 12th in driving accuracy and sixth in scoring, and that's a profile that will give you a chance against anyone.
Aaron Baddeley (Round 1 starter): He's contended in both of the CA Championships that have been held at Doral (T15, T6), and when push comes to shove in a very deep field, don't you want Baddeley's magic putter on your side? He's yet to miss a cut this year, and it seems about time for him to throw himself into the four-day argument at a big event.
Stephen Ames: While he's only cracked the top 10 once at Doral this decade, he generally plays well here, finishing in the top 30 six times (including a tie for 15th last season). The stat sheet backs up an Ames selection: He's 20th in GIR, 12th in putting, and eighth in birdie average. He'll put plenty of circles on the card.
Billy Mayfair: March is all about Cinderellas in sports, and with that I present to you Mayfair, a player a little off the radar. He knows his way around Doral -- that's for sure -- cashing 11 times in his last 12 stops here, including a second-place finish and five top-20 checks. You probably don't want to use Mayfair for all four rounds, but he's a handy, experienced choice coming out of the bullpen.
Other B-List Options: Steve Stricker has seen his share of troubles at the Blue Monster over the years (he missed the Doral cut in 2004, 2005 and 2006), but last season's tie for sixth suggests that he's finally comfortable here. He's been a little wayward off the tee in 2009, but his iron play (13th in GIR) and putting (17th) have been superb, as usual ... There's no doubting Rory McIlroy's ability, but he's yet to play here, while just about everyone else has. Maybe you can look past that on your card, but I'm not going to
There's a lot to like about Sean O'Hair's game, but it hasn't always translated to success at Doral. His best finish in three starts is a tie for 48th ... Tim Clark is never intimidated by a big-name field -- note his win over Tiger Woods two weeks back -- and he's capable of contending at Doral, with a couple of top 20 checks in the last four seasons. He's another capable grinder who has a better chance to win if the weather gets funky
Davis Love III played three sterling rounds at The Honda Classic last week, following an opening-round 73, and he's been 12th or better in four of his last six Doral stops. I've already used a chunk of my Love starts this season, and that keeps him off my card, but if you're still well stocked in this area, he looks like a solid fantasy play ... Hunter Mahan has been close to a breakout tournament a couple of times this season, and you won't find an obvious weakness on his stat profile, but the Blue Monster doesn't seem to be his favorite track. He's yet to do better than a tie for 44th showing over three starts here
Rory Sabbatini has already started to pen the comeback story, cashing four times in stroke-play events this season (three of them top-12 finishes). Alas, Doral and Sabbatini haven't been friends over the years, with three lukewarm results (70, T35, T70). We'll be happy to use Sabbatini 10 times in the game this campaign, but let's look for friendlier landing areas ... Stuart Appleby has been over the Blue Monster grounds plenty of times, but he doesn't have anything better than a tie for 30th in his last seven visits. That's not enough to get our play this week
Where is Carl Pettersson's game right now? Sure, he's made four cuts in a row, but nothing better than a tie for 50th over the last three weeks. He's generally one of the most consistent players on the circuit, but we're not going to roll with him now, in this strong a field, while he's searching for some confidence ... Likeable vet Dudley Hart had a tie for 10th run at Doral back in 2005, but otherwise he's had a rough go at the Blue Monster in recent starts (four missed cuts, one T60)
Adam Scott looked a little rusty off the layoff two weeks ago, losing in the first round at the Accenture Match Play, and although he ran ninth here last season, I'm going to give him more prep time before I find a spot for the talented Aussie ... I know you want to use Dustin Johnson, and I'm right there with you, but keep in mind it's his first look at Doral and just his second World Golf Championships start ever. The talented 20-something has been a fantasy Godsend this year, but I can't pull the trigger on a speculation start ... Pat Perez missed three consecutive Doral cuts earlier this decade and hasn't been over the course since it became a World Golf Championships event. It's not the ideal spot to dial him up.
C-List Selections
Retief Goosen (Round 1 starter): Man, I've missed this guy, the ultimate cool customer (when you shrug off teenage bouts with lightning strikes, there's something special in you). Goosen has three top-10 finishes at the Blue Monster this decade, and he was part of a group chasing Ogilvy last year before eventually settling for second. I won't be surprised if the South African gives us four usable rounds in this spot.
Ian Poulter: Honestly, I can't give you the strongest case for him in this position, other than this: Poulter won me over at the British Open and Ryder Cup last year, and I swore I would make him an aggressive fantasy start in the new season. He showed some run at Match Play two weeks ago, and he tied for 16th at the first CA Championship held at Doral.
Other C-List Options: Luke Donald hasn't done better than a tie for 20th at Doral, and who's to say how healthy he's feeling these days? We'll have plenty of chances to roll with Cool Hand Luke, but he needs to show us that he's 100 percent first ... Henrik Stenson has been at Doral the last two years, with ordinary results (T57, T19). His European success this year jumps out at you, but he didn't look sharp in Arizona two weeks ago
Cheers to Y.E. Yang for grabbing his first PGA TOUR victory last week, but that doesn't mean we'll double up and use him in this spot against this field. He qualified for the CA Championship two seasons ago, but didn't crack the top 60 ... Richard Sterne is another intriguing foreign player to consider if you don't like the picks above; don't forget his double-dip on the European Tour back in December (winning consecutive weeks). His first Doral trip last year was tripped up by a 77 on Friday, but he rebounded with a strong finish out the door (67, 70).
Last Week: The redemption song continues to play in this space, as we saw another positive showing, collecting 175 points and 1,823 ranking slots. Seven of our eight players made the cut and six landed in the top 25, paced by Ben Crane (third) and Robert Allenby (fifth).
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