Jun. 30, 2009
By Scott Pianowski, The Fantasy Insider
Power and creativity are the order of the day as we head to Tiger's annual party. You generally can't contend at Congressional Country Club without some juice off the tee, and you'll need a variety of other shots in your bag -- and in your mind -- as you negotiate the rest of the track.
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Last week: Half of our card missed the cut, but the hits were worth it -- Kenny Perry won the Travelers Championship and we got strong pushes from Hunter Mahan (fourth), Scott Verplank (ninth) and Bubba Watson (14th). The sum of the week was a zesty 218 points, and we're in the 96th percentile for the year.
Fantasy game basics: We're picking eight players every week from three separate pools: two players from the A-List, four players from the B-List, and two players from the C-List.
From round to round, you'll "start" four of those players (one of your A players, two from B, one from C), making daily changes as you see fit. If your guys play well that day or for the week, you score well.
The eight players you pick at the beginning of the week are the only ones you can use and switch up during a particular tournament; the next week, you'll re-evaluate and refresh your group of eight.
You're allowed to use any player up to 10 starts for the year, and anything from 1-4 rounds in a given event counts as a single "start." As always, choose carefully, and have a long-term plan in addition to your short-term goals.
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| A-List Selections |
TIGER WOODS (Round 1 starter): It's not always easy to enjoy the party when you're the host, but we'll take the bait anyway. Distance will never be a problem for Woods, of course, and he's mentally as tough as they come when it comes to recovery shots (ninth in scrambling). He finished sixth in his first go-round here in 2007; the knee problem kept him out last season. You need to have a solid reason to look past Woods, even in a limited-start game, and I don't see it at Congressional.
ANTHONY KIM: We see the swagger starting to come back a little bit with Kim -- he finished T16 at the U.S. Open and T11 at the Travelers Championship -- and his confidence won't suffer at AT&T National, where he's the defending champion. Standing 17th in driving distance and third in putting average, Kim looks awfully dangerous if he gets off to a quick start Thursday.
OTHER A-LIST OPTIONS: Paul Casey has earned the right to be considered anywhere, anytime, but it doesn't look like the best week to dial him up. He's making his debut at Congressional, and he's been in a funk of late -- the missed cut at the U.S. Open came on the heels of a 75-78 finish at the Memorial Tournament. Let's see him get back in form before we revisit Casey . . .
Jim Furyk is proof that shorter hitters can thrive at Congressional -- he's finished third at this event two years running and he ran fifth when the U.S. Open was held here in 1997. To get away with that weakness, Furyk needs to be good almost everywhere else, and he truly is: eighth in tee accuracy, fourth in GIR, eighth in putting, fourth in scrambling. Get ready to see a lot of Furyk on Sunday . . .
The sweet ball striking of Robert Allenby (11th in greens, fifth in total driving) plays well at Congressional -- he's run sixth and third in two stops at AT&T National -- but his putting issues keep him off my card for this week. There's pressure to pick winners when we get this deep in the fantasy season, and as much as I admire Allenby's game and makeup, the fact remains that he hasn't won a PGA TOUR event since 2001 . . .
John Senden is another ball-striking ace -- he's first in GIR this year -- and he's made seven straight cuts into this event. You do have to worry a little bit about rust, however; he's making his first TOUR appearance since his T4 run at the St. Jude Classic three weeks back. He's cashed in both stops at AT&T National, including a T18 check last season . . .
Mike Weir has the mind to negotiate Congressional even if the driving isn't there -- witness the 64 he shot at Bethpage Black at the U.S. Open despite a messy driving day. He ran eighth at AT&T National two years ago, then missed the cut last year . . .
Vijay Singh has taken a step back of late after putting together a strong May push, but Congressional is a course that plays to his strengths and he was T12 at the debut of this event in 2007. The two stats that concern me with Singh are his putting (159th) and scrambling (164th). |
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| B-List Selections |
HUNTER MAHAN (Round 1 starter): Here's a pretty easy pick -- Mahan's coming off two consecutive top-10s, his ball-striking has been letter-perfect (at times, too perfect), and he's been comfortable at AT&T National over the last two years (12th, 8th). Remember the mad run Mahan went on in the second half of 2007? Don't be surprised if it happens again this season.
CHARLEY HOFFMAN (Round 1 starter): If you could design a car around Hoffman's game, I'd buy it -- plenty of power (ninth in driving distance), plenty of control and handling (14th in putting average). He's yet to miss a cut in 2009, and he knows his way around Congressional (T19 two years back).
SEAN O'HAIR: He hasn't done better than T25 in two stops at AT&T National, but we'll throw that out. The growth O'Hair has shown this year puts him on the short list of favorites anytime he tees it up. The stat sheet is your friend on any O'Hair selection: he's second in GIR, fourth in birdie average, seventh in scoring, and first in all-around rank. If there's a weakness to O'Hair's game, I can't find it.
NICK WATNEY: The only chink in his game these days is the occasional wayward drive, and that shouldn't be a big deal at Congressional. Watney's results have been a little boom-or-bust over his last five events -- three missed cuts against two top-25 checks -- but he comes into this event rested and he's got the power profile that I expect from a winner at AT&T National.
OTHER B-LIST OPTIONS: I can't blame anyone who keeps rolling along with the Lucas Glover train; he fashioned a solid T11 at the Travelers Championshp last week on the heels of his sterling U.S. Open win. My concern here is fatigue -- a lot of demands come with winning a major, and obviously he didn't have any time to rest last week, though it didn't seem to hurt his game much. Glover finished T12 at the initial AT&T National event two years back, then fell to 54th last year . . .
Generally I've been endorsing Steve Marino in this space, and his wonderfully balanced stat profile and consistent season have me convinced that his breakthrough win is coming soon, but I'll take a step back after watching him miss the cut in Connecticut last week. Marino was a respectable T24 at AT&T National last season after missing the cut in 2007 . . .
Davis Love is usually a solid pick on traditional courses, and he's got some experience at Congressional (T27 last year, T16 at the U.S. Open in 1997). His last event this year was a superb T5 at the Memorial, and Love's driver still has plenty of kick in it (14th in distance) . . .
Fred Couples still has plenty of game shots left in that beautiful swing of his -- don't forget his deep run at the Colonial -- and he was a respectable T27 at AT&T National last year. Couples has been very smart with his schedule and training over the last part of his career; I won't be surprised if he finds his way into contention on the weekend . . .
If Boo Weekley can get some early momentum on the greens, he's got a great chance to make a run here. He's got a steady driving game and he's going to hit plenty of greens, but he's lagging in the putting and scrambling numbers. His one start at AT&T National was a strong T12 two seasons back. |
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| C-List Selections |
NICK O'HERN (Round 1 starter): He's quietly rounding back into form -- he's made four cuts in a row -- and he negotiated Congressional like a seasoned pro last year, finishing third. O'Hern doesn't have the perfect statistical fit for what we're looking for at AT&T National -- he's a shorter hitter, for one thing -- but he's the type of player who generally outscores the sum of his numbers on the stat sheet, and that sort of resourcefulness will give you a chance anywhere.
ROCCO MEDIATE: It's always fun to pick the players you like in this fantasy racket, and Mediate always gives you something back when he's endorsed -- he's yet to miss a cut in 13 starts this season despite a very ordinary stat profile. The smiling veteran has two solid checks to point to at Congressional, and that makes him a solid backup plan for this week.
OTHER C-LIST OPTIONS: Traditional layouts generally agree with Charles Howell and he was a solid T22 at AT&T National last year after missing the cut in 2007. Howell's driving and iron play will put him in favorable positions more often than not; ultimately his winning chances will come down to putting, scrambling, and getting some early-week confidence . . .
Charlie Wi's iron play and putting (fifth) puts him in a good position most weeks, but I'm not sure his ordinary driving length (111th) makes him the right pick this week. He didn't reach the weekend in his AT&T National debut last year, shooting 73-71 . . .
George McNeill has made 7-of-9 cuts entering this week and while his AT&T National debut was ordinary last season (T49), at least he got in four rounds of experience. He has the length off the tee that we want to see in this spot (290 yards a pop), but he needs to cash in a little better on his birdie opportunities (100th in birdie average) . . .
Ted Purdy has been a steady fantasy play for most of the year, but he's heading to AT&T National with two straight missed cuts to think about, and this is his debut at Congressional. Let's see a rebound week from Purdy before we go back to dialing him up here . . .
Lee Janzen didn't have his sharpest game at the Travelers Championship last week, but he has made seven cuts in eight starts and you can see the confidence blooming again here. Janzen's tee-to-green game might not be what it once was, but he's still got a reliable putter, a crafty eye, and a determined will. I'm expecting another solid check from him. |
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