Scouting report: Ogilvy, Casey evenly matched on Sunday

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Will Geoff Ogilvy's experience give him the edge in the 36-hole showdown on Sunday? Or will Paul Casey's desire for his first PGA TOUR win help him overcome Ogilvy? We've given you three reasons to pick each candidate for the title.


THREE REASONS WHY GEOFF OGILVY WILL WIN

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Does Geoff Ogilvy have the advantage?

1. Ogilvy has a ridiculous 16-2 record in this event and has now reached the final match here three of the last four years, winning it once in 2006 when he beat Davis Love III 3 and 2. He's also coming off two rounds in which he birdied three of his last four holes -- not including an eagle on the par-4 15th in Saturday afternoon's match. Translation: He's playing some seriously good golf when it matters the most. Both his quarterfinal and semifinal matches were tight until he went on a birdie binge with the kind of golf that wins championships.

2. Casey is a veteran of three Ryder Cup teams and obviously with that comes a ton of match play experience, but Ogilvy's game is on another level. He's won a major championship and two World Golf Championships events. Casey is still looking for his first win on the PGA TOUR. Casey will break through at some point, but beating a guy like Ogilvy, no matter how well you have been playing, seems awfully tough.

3. He and Casey are good friends who have spent time together both professionally and socially. They live just a few miles from one another in nearby Scottsdale and both play out of Whisper Rock. Ironically enough, they played a practice round here a couple of weeks ago together and while neither felt very comfortable on the course then given the severity of the greens, it's clear it has grown on both of them.

THREE REASONS WHY PAUL CASEY WILL WIN

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Or is Paul Casey finally going to win?

1. In case you hadn't noticed, Casey has led for 79 of his 80 holes this week and hasn't lost a single hole all week. If he wins Sunday, without falling behind, he would also be the first player in tournament history to do so in all six rounds. If that's not an indication of how well Casey is playing, I don't know what is.

2. Like Ogilvy, Casey lives in the desert and loves playing desert golf. He was the first player this week I've actually heard say they "like the golf course." There's no question it's grown on Ogilvy, too, but Casey knows how to play in these conditions and on these courses every bit as well as Ogilvy does and that's going to help on Sunday. He's also shown some progression here, having lost in the first round four straight years before reaching the quarterfinals in 2007 and the third round in 2008. If you have to crawl before you learn how to walk, Casey has certainly done that.

3. He and Ogilvy are good friends who have shared a lot of time together on and off the golf course. Ask Phil Mickelson how important it was to play the final round of the 2006 Masters with buddy Fred Couples. Even though Couples was battling Mickelson for the Green Jacket, the comfort level Freddy brought to the round helped set things at ease for Mickelson, who went on to win. Casey and Ogilvy will be at ease and chatty with each other and that'll help settle whatever nerves Casey has while trying to win for the first time on TOUR.