The Fantasy Insider: Mayakoba Golf Classic
By Scott Pianowski, The Fantasy Insider
It's time to make a run for the border as we set up for the third year of the Mayakoba Classic at Riviera Maya. Greg Norman's El Camaleon Golf Club is a short but tricky beauty (6,923 yards) with plenty of agua on the premises -- precise driving and ball striking will be critical for the field this week, especially if the winds feel like kicking up.
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Here are the rules in a nutshell: We're picking eight players every week from three separate pools -- two players from the A-List, four players from the B-List, and two players from the C-List. From round to round, you'll "start" four of those players (one of your A players, two from B, one from C), making daily changes as you see fit. If your guys play well that day or for the week, you score well. The eight players you pick at the beginning of the week are the only ones you can use and switch up during a particular tournament; the next week, you'll re-evaluate and refresh your group of eight.
You're allowed to use any player up to 10 starts for the year, and anything from one to four rounds in a given event counts as a single "start." As always, choose carefully, and have a long-term plan in addition to your short-term goals.
A-List Selections
Cliff Kresge (Round 1 starter): His 2008 debut at this event was a nifty one: A strong 64-66 push on the weekend earned him fifth place all to himself. Kresge's got a very balanced and even stat profile, something I like to see when we head to a course where most of the field has limited experience. Yes, he has missed two cuts in five starts this year, but at least his "hits" have been strong ones (T23, T48, T10). I like the veteran's chances at another deep Mayakoba Classic run this week.
Brian Davis: He's reliable off the tee, and his winning chances probably go up on a track where accuracy is preferred over power. Davis also comes into the event with some confidence, fresh off a solid T17 at last week's Northern Trust Open.
Other A-List Options: Kevin Na is one of the bigger names in this week's field, and it's hard to say no to his beautiful putting stroke, but he's also lagging in some of the key stats that fit El Camaleon (124th in driving distance, 116th in GIR), and he's yet to play this tournament -- a notable disadvantage ... Michael Letzig has yet to miss a cut this year (5-for-5), and he's been over the El Camaleon track before (42nd last year). Ultimately, it comes down to putting with Letzig; if he gets something rolling early in the week, watch out ... Tim Wilkinson has the best driving-accuracy stats in the A-Group this week, and he ran 28th here last season, but it's hard to dial him up after three missed cuts in a row ... John Merrick has been here twice, and he finished T3 last season, so I can't blame you if you opt for him in this spot. He's got four checks in five starts this year, including a second-place finish at the Bob Hope Classic ... Vaughn Taylor had three solid tournaments before last week's backslide at the Northern Trust Open, and he's got a profile that can win in Mexico (60th in driving accuracy, 64th in putting, 69th in scoring). He didn't make a run last year, however, finishing T55.
B-List Selections
David Toms (Round 1 starter): He's making his debut at the Mayakoba Classic, but I'll cut him some slack because his game fits the demands of the course so well (fourth in driving accuracy, 50th in GIR, fourth in putting). Toms enters this week rested and plenty confident (he's already bagged two top-five finishes in 2009), and in most circles, he's seen as the favorite this week. I'm not bucking that.
Steve Marino (Round 1 starter): Here's another player with a tremendously-balanced stat sheet, there's just no obvious weakness to Marino's game. He's already got a nice thing going at El Camaleon, finishing second and eighth in the last two seasons. He's going to win sooner or later, why not here?
Brian Gay: He won here last season, and he's one of the truest drivers on the circuit, so that's a good start. Gay didn't have his best form at the Northern Trust Open (cut), but he was sharp as can be in his opening four events (T18, T5, T19, T6). You'll want this Gator on your side this week.
Joe Ogilvie: He was steady if unspectacular at Riviera last week (70-70-69-71), and he's got a good thing going at El Camaleon, finishing 12th and 18th the last two seasons. Ogilvie's driving stats don't fit the profile we're looking for this week, necessarily, but he's got a superb putting stroke and plenty of success at this event, so we can look past that.
Other B-List Options: Chad Campbell is 3-for-3 in made cuts this year, though he slipped a little after that opening tie for ninth at the Bob Hope Chrysler Classic. It's not easy to leave a big name like Campbell on the bench for this week, but he's yet to play the Mayakoba Classic, and the course specs don't suit his game as much as they do some of the other players in this pool ... Bo Van Pelt is having a nice season driving the ball, and he finished with a rush at the Northern Trust Open (65), so don't be surprised if he carries that over to this week. It's his debut at El Camaleon ... Bill Haas finished fifth at the first Mayakoba Classic two years back, and he's quietly grabbed three top-25 checks this season. He's very close to putting it all together and surprising a lot of people ... Brendon de Jonge remains under the radar despite four checks in his last five starts, including a tie for 10th at the Northern Trust Open. Driving accuracy isn't the strongest part of his game, but he's steady elsewhere, and he finished tied for ninth at the first Mayakoba Classic two seasons back ... John Rollins is outside the top 100 in both driving accuracy and GIR, which steers us away from him in this spot. He's also making his debut at El Camaleon ... Briny Baird is one of the more underrated ball strikers around (38th this season), and he's got two years of knowledge acquired at the Mayakoba Classic, including a tie for 12th last year ... Don't sleep on Shigeki Maruyama, who had two super finishes to open the year (T12, T10) before a misstep at the Northern Trust Open (cut). He looks healthy again and primed for a comeback season ... The best part of Scott Piercy's game is his distance off the tee, and that's of limited help at El Camaleon. He's been to the Mayakoba Classic twice, with mediocre results (T60, cut) ... Joe Durant enters this week off a pair of missed cuts, but his straight driving will play nicely south of the border, and he was tied for 12th at the Mayakoba Classic last season. Get him on your sleeper list.
C-List Selections
Dean Wilson (Round 1 starter): He's hitting it straight this year, he's always been a heck of a putter, he's cashed in five consecutive events, and Wilson consistently scores better than his cumulative stats would suggest. That's a nice mix to put into play at El Camaleon, and he had a respectable tie for 36th when he first saw the course last season.
Heath Slocum: He's somewhat of a reach play given what he's done this year (one cut in four starts), but Slocum's true driving (11th in accuracy) and steady putting (25th) give him a chance at this event. Don't close the door on Slocum yet; he's been in the top 100 on the money list for seven years running, and it's only a matter of time before he gets his game together.
Other C-List Options: It's very difficult to look past Peter Lonard's history at the Mayakoba Classic (seventh last year, third in 2007), but he's made just one cut in five starts this year, and he's yet to break 70 at any event other than the Bob Hope Chrysler Classic. We're too deep into the new season to discount the evidence in front of us ... Webb Simpson has been a fantasy bonanza for anyone willing to take the plunge on the breakout star, but given where he fits in driving accuracy (101st) and GIR (100th), I'm not riding with the kid here, especially considering he's never seen the course before ... Scott Verplank has the skill set you want for this event, but keep in mind he's yet to play the tournament, and he's still looking for his best stride in 2009 (cut, cut, T64) ... George McNeill's pretty scoring average is mostly driven by his distance off the tee and scrambling around the greens; the distance is unlikely to help much here. He made the cut but didn't really contend at this event two years ago (72nd) ... It's Charles Howell's first walk over the El Camaleon track, and he's more of a power driver than a precision guy, so we'll keep some of his valuable C-List starts in the bag for later in the year ...Steady Ted Purdy has four straight cashes this year, and his strong iron play gives him a chance at El Camaleon. He's got some local knowledge of the track, though he's yet to get inside the top 45 in two starts.
Last Week: I picked up another 3,000 slots in the overall standings, in part because Luke Donald, Tim Clark, Bob Estes and Jim Furyk all played well on Sunday. One misstep was benching Donald for Matt Kuchar on Saturday; it turned out to be the only day Kuchar played poorly last week (70-68-75-69). And so it goes.
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