The Fantasy Insider: Valero Texas Open

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May. 12, 2009
By Scott Pianowski, The Fantasy Insider

It's time for a little Texas Three Step as we head to the Lone Star State for the balance of May. There's plenty of history to consider at the Texas Open -- this tournament dates back to 1922 -- and it's our last chance to get a look at La Cantera Golf Club, which has hosted this event since 1995. La Cantera is of the shorter courses we'll see this year, and players generally putt very well here, so there should be plenty of red posted on the leaderboard. Saddle up and let's collect some birdies, pahdner.

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Last week: It was one of our best weeks of the season at TPC Sawgrass, grabbing a win (Henrik Stenson), a second (Ian Poulter) and a tie for fifth (Jim Furyk). The rest of the selections weren't as fruitful, but we still grabbed 176 points and moved into the 92nd percentile for the year.

PGATOUR.com Fantasy Golf -- here are the rules in a nutshell:

We're picking eight players every week from three separate pools: two players from the A-List, four players from the B-List, and two players from the C-List.

From round to round, you'll "start" four of those players (one of your A players, two from B, one from C), making daily changes as you see fit. If your guys play well that day or for the week, you score well.

The eight players you pick at the beginning of the week are the only ones you can use and switch up during a particular tournament; the next week, you'll re-evaluate and refresh your group of eight.

You're allowed to use any player up to 10 starts for the year, and anything from 1-4 rounds in a given event counts as a single "start." As always, choose carefully, and have a long-term plan in addition to your short-term goals.

A-List Selections
JUSTIN LEONARD (Round 1 starter): The easiest pick of the week by far, as the Dallas native Leonard has three wins (2007, 2001, 2000) and two seconds at this event, and he's in the midst of a solid year (17th in driving accuracy, 18th in putting, 26th in birdie average). Leonard has made six cuts in his last seven starts, including three finishes in the top 20; look for more of the same here. There is one notable oddity to Leonard's 2009 resume: He's currently first in Round 3 scoring, but it dips to 112th for the final round. That said, there's too much back class with this established pro to worry too much about that stat. Don't get cute with this pick, Leonard has to be used here.
JOHN MALLINGER: He's having a sneaky-good season, but the cover is just about to be blown on that; when you make eight of nine cuts and tie for third at TPC Sawgrass and sixth at the Shell Houston Open, people tend to notice. Mallinger grabbed a tie for 15th in his Valero Texas Open debut two seasons ago, so he knows a thing or two about how to get it done at La Cantera.
Other A-List Options:
• Brian Davis comes into this week on a roll; he got a lot of air time en route to a tie for fifth at The PLAYERS Championship, he tied for 19th at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans, and he 14th at the Shell Houston Open. I'd feel better about selecting him now if he had some past success at La Cantera; in two starts at this event, he's yet to crack the top 45.
• It's never easy to sit a big star like Anthony Kim, and he's got some past success at La Cantera (he tied for second in 2006), but the recent struggles have me a little spooked. Kim didn't make a run at Quail Hollow, for starters (T47), and he missed the cut at The PLAYERS Championship after shooting an 82 on Friday.
• Tim Wilkinson tied for second here last fall, and he looked like a player on the move after a tie for sixth at the Verizon Heritage, but he's been off his game since, missing the cut in New Orleans (71-76) and at THE PLAYERS (77-77). Let's see a bounce-back week before we return Wilkinson into the circle of trust.
• Cameron Beckman knows the track as well as anyone, with 13 Texas Open starts over the years. The results have been a little hit-and-miss; he's got two checks in the top 20 and six inside the top 40, but he's also missed the cut six times.
• Steve Elkington's extensive course knowledge should keep the veteran in the story for four rounds, but he's only been in serious contention in one of his last six visits to La Cantera, and he's been struggling a bit with his game in 2009 (136th in GIR, 124th in birdie average). I'll put Elkington in the top 40 on back class, but I'm not ready to pick him as a primary contender.
B-List Selections
CHARLEY HOFFMAN (Round 1 starter): This looks like a track where the blonde bomber can do some damage; Hoffman sits eighth in both birdie average and par breakers, and that's the profile of someone to watch at La Cantera. You get consistency when you sign off for a Hoffman selection; he's made 20 cuts in a row dating back to last year, and you'll contend almost every week when you're hitting greens (31st in GIR) and rolling the ball well (18th in putting average).
ZACH JOHNSON (Round 1 starter): He's the highest-ranked player in the field, and he's the defending champ -- a nice way to start your argument. You need to go pretty low to win at La Cantera, and Johnson's more than capable, standing 17th in holes per eagle, 36th in par breakers and 11th in scoring average.
TIM CLARK: He might be the best player on the PGA TOUR without a victory, but it's just a matter of time with the talented Clark. He had success when he last came to the Valero Texas Open (tied for fifth in 2004, 24th in 2003), and his skill set is portable for a run on just about any course (sixth in driving accuracy, 23rd in GIR, sixth in putting, fifth in birdie average).
BOB ESTES: He's one of the pillars of this tournament, winning it in 1994 (on a different course) and teeing it up 20 times with nine top 10s. Estes isn't one of the longest hitters on TOUR, but he's consistently playing from the fairway (16th in driving accuracy), he's hitting greens (44th in GIR) and he's rolling the ball well (34th in putting).
Other B-List Options:
• Daniel Chopra didn't have a thing going in the early part of the season (missing five straight cuts at one point), but he's rallied nicely with five checks in his last six starts, including a tie for 14th last week and eighth at the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by MasterCard. He finished third in his last visit to the Valero Texas Open two years ago.
• Dustin Johnson has slowed down a bit in 2009 after a fast start, but he's got the red-number stats you want for this event (fourth in par breakers), and he tied for 15th at the Valero Texas Open last year. He's certainly someone you have to consider.
• Texas natives seem to play well in their home state, and with that we'll consider Chad Campbell as a Valero Texas Open pick. He's made five consecutive cuts at the event, with three of the checks landing in the top 20. If he can straighten out the driver a little bit, the rest of the game is there.
• Stephen Ames hasn't broken 70 since the Masters, and he's missed a couple of cuts since then as well, but he's heading to a course that can help him find his game. He's got ties for sixth and eighth on his Valero Texas Open resumé, over just five starts, and he's a tasty 17th in par breakers.
• You generally get a solid return from Mark Wilson, who's cashed in seven of his last 10 events, including the win at the Mayakoba Golf Classic. He tied for second at the Valero Texas Open last fall.
• Bart Bryant knows his way around the layout, winning here in 2004 to go along with some other healthy checks. He hasn't played much lately, but the Gatesville native remains an intriguing sleeper pick.
• Alex Cejka has three consecutive cashes here (26, 50, 19), and obviously he showed us a lot at TPC Sawgrass last week, even with the disappointing final round. Look for another finish inside the top 30.
C-List Selections
DEAN WILSON (Round 1 starter): Yes, he's missed five of the last six cuts, but this is the perfect track for Wilson to get back on the mark. He's got four top-10 finishes at La Cantera over his last five visits (44, 6, 2, 7, 3), and I don't know how we can discount player history when it's that strong at a particular event. The smiling Hawaiian can pack a punch for you this week.
CHARLIE WI: He tied for second at La Cantera last fall, and he's been knocking on the door this year with three top 10s. Wi's confidence has been soaring since last year's tie for ninth at the PGA Championship, and I imagine he'll be joining the list of PGA TOUR winners in the near future. Fifth in putting, 28th in birdie average, tenth in all-around ranking -- that works for me.
Other C-List Options:
• I thought Nick O'Hern had turned the corner after his tie for third in Houston, but he's been a little erratic since then (T30, cut, cut, T49). His patient game probably translates better to some other tracks; aggressive play is more the order of the day at La Cantera.
• I generally want to pick Scott Verplank for anything played in Texas, but this hasn't been his best stop over the years (36, 59, cut, cut, cut, cut, 18). That established, we have to give a lot of weight to how he's playing now (eight consecutive checks, and his stat profile shows a game that will translate anywhere (fifth in driving accuracy, 52nd in GIR, 12th in putting).
• Rocco Mediate still hasn't missed a cut this year, and he's played the weekend in five of his last six stops at the Valero Texas Open. As per usual, he's a safe pick and a fun one as well.
• Ted Purdy knows his way around the layout, with four checks in five starts including a tie for fifth in the middle of the decade. If he gets some early confidence with the putter, this could be a four-round story worth following.
• Lee Janzen has three top-10 checks at La Cantera not that long ago, though he's struggled over his last four visits (cut, 57, cut, 31). In some formats I'd consider him as a sleeper play here; he's got a sneaky four checks in his last five starts this year, with three finishes inside the top 20. There's plenty of good golf left in the 44-year-old veteran.
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