The Fantasy Insider: John Deere Classic

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Jul. 8, 2009
By Scott Pianowski, The Fantasy Insider

Get out those red numbers and be ready to put them up on the board -- TPC Deere Run is a track that will allow for lots of birdie and eagle chances, and it's been a putting-friendly surface in recent years. Let's collect some data and start working on that low number.

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Last week: It's not that they were hard selections, but we're going to feel pretty good after giving out Tiger Woods (win), Hunter Mahan (second) and Anthony Kim (third) in this space for AT&T National. We've moved up to the 96th percentile for the season.

Fantasy game basics: We're picking eight players every week from three separate pools: two players from the A-List, four players from the B-List, and two players from the C-List.

From round to round, you'll "start" four of those players (one of your A players, two from B, one from C), making daily changes as you see fit. If your guys play well that day or for the week, you score well.

The eight players you pick at the beginning of the week are the only ones you can use and switch up during a particular tournament; the next week, you'll re-evaluate and refresh your group of eight.

You're allowed to use any player up to 10 starts for the year, and anything from 1-4 rounds in a given event counts as a single "start." As always, choose carefully, and have a long-term plan in addition to your short-term goals.

A-List Selections
KENNY PERRY (Round 1 starter): He's over the Masters; we saw that two weeks ago (win at the Travelers Championship), and he's had plenty of success at the John Deere Classic (five top-10s, including a win last year). The stat sheet gives plenty of backup to a Perry selection; he's currently seventh in total driving, fourth in greens in regulation, fifth in scoring average and 14th in par breakers. You know what to do.

JOHN SENDEN: It's always nice to start with a player who wears out the fairways (fifth in total driving) and greens (first in greens in regulation), and Senden is familiar with the challenge at hand this week -- he won the John Deere Classic in 2006. He enters this week with eight consecutive cashes, including a couple of top-10 finishes. This is a very safe selection, and one with plenty of upside, too.

OTHER A-LIST OPTIONS:
• Ryan Moore hit a rough patch in May for a while, but that's ancient history now; he's been outstanding in his last three events (T11, T4, T10). His individual stats don't explicitly point to contention here, and he's got two ordinary showings on his John Deere résumé (74, 27), but there's a lot to be said for picking a hot, confident player.
• Kevin Sutherland has made the cut seven consecutive times at the John Deere Classic (including a T8 last year), and he's having another consistent year on the PGA TOUR, cashing 14 times in 17 starts. If Sutherland can find a little confidence on the greens early on (that's the weakest part of his game this season), he's got an excellent chance to be a four-round story.
• Brian Davis was in the middle of breakthrough season not too long ago -- he fashioned three consecutive top-five finishes just two months back, including a solo second at the HP Byron Nelson Championship -- but he's slipped off the pace of late, missing two cuts and then tying for 73rd at AT&T National last week. He started strong in his John Deere Classic debut last year (66-67) before faltering on the weekend (73-71). We'll come back to Davis when he shows he's back in form.
• Cliff Kresge has been playing the every-other-event game for a while, alternating made cuts and missed cuts over his last 10 starts. I'd like to go back to him after watching his solid T16 at Tiger's event last week, but we need to see a little more consistency first. He's also missed the cut in two of his three starts at the John Deere Classic, and his one cash was an ordinary T58.
B-List Selections
DAVID TOMS (Round 1 starter): He's got a win at this event if you look back far enough (1997), and Toms has been knocking on the victory door all during 2009 (five top-five finishes, including three second-place checks). Toms hasn't played a lot at TPC Deere Run this decade, but he's got a game that will translate to just about any track -- standing first in driving accuracy, 10th in putting average, second in scoring and first in all-around rank. He'll put circles on the card, too, ranking 21st in par breakers.

STEVE STRICKER (Round 1 starter): He has an ordinary track record at the John Deere Classic, but Stricker's consistent 2009 campaign gets him the check mark in this spot -- he's been T27 or better in each of his last six starts (including the win at Colonial). The likable Midwesterner is capable of stringing together some low numbers at TPC Deere Run -- he's third in putting average, third in scoring and 10th in birdie average.

LUCAS GLOVER: I was concerned about a possible letdown after the U.S. Open win at Bethpage Black, but that hasn't been the case at all -- Glover grabbed a T11 at the Travelers Championship, then ran fifth at AT&T National last week. His track record here isn't anything special (two missed cuts, nothing better than T32 over four starts), but Glover's too hot to sit right now. I'm late to the party, sure, but there's a limit to my fantasy stubbornness.

MATT BETTENCOURT: Here's another sizzling player who you want in your plans right now; the 34-year-old Californian has quietly cashed five solid checks in a row, including a fifth at the Memorial, a T10 at the U.S. Open and a T11 last week at AT&T National. Bettencourt is 51st in birdie average, and he's strong on the par 5s -- two things that point his way in this spot.

OTHER B-LIST OPTIONS:
• Chad Campbell knows what to do at TPC Deere Run (witness the T7 finish last year), but his game hasn't been sharp since the playoff loss at the Masters. He's missed the cut in four of his last seven starts, and his best finish over that run is a mere T59 at the Travelers Championship (a calf injury has also played into the slump). Let's see a bounce-back event from Campbell before we re-invest.
• I've run up a lot of Woody Austin starts already, but I can't blame you if you opt for him here. He's made four consecutive cuts at the John Deere Classic (including a snappy ninth last year), and he's got a sneaky little season going, with 13-of-15 cuts made and three six-digit cashes over his last eight events.
• I'll buy all the stock in Steve Marino's future that you allow me, but I'm going to wait until we see him get back in form. He missed the cut at the Travelers Championship two weeks back, and although he had a great middle run at AT&T National last week, he slipped back with a 76 on Sunday. He tied for 41st in his John Deere debut last season.
• It's always amazed me that Briny Baird hasn't won an event on the PGA TOUR, though he's had his share of runs, including a couple at the John Deere Classic (second in 2001, fifth in 2005). If he can get the putter working this week, he's got a shot to go low; we know he'll hit plenty of greens (third in greens in regulation), and he's a respectable 29th in scoring and 28th in all-around rank.
• Why am I not picking Zach Johnson, one of the biggest names in the field, this week? His John Deere Classic history leaves me a little cold, that's why. He's missed the cut twice in six starts at this event, and his cashes haven't been gigantic ones (20, 36, 33, 69). Let's wait until we find a course that better suits his eye.
C-List Selections
MATT KUCHAR (Round 1 starter): Consistency and check-cashing will always get you into my fantasy good graces, and Kuchar has generally come through when endorsed in this space (he's 11-for-15 on cuts made in 2009). Kuchar's one of the more underrated putters around, and I like that he's consistently able to score better than the sum of his stats would suggest. He's quietly in the middle of a breakthrough year, and I'm comfortable using him again.

SCOTT VERPLANK: This was one of his favorite stops back in the 1990s during the Quad City Classic days; Verplank made six starts and never finished worse than T15 during that time. He didn't get off the mark strongly at the beginning of 2009 (two early missed cuts), but he's been rock-solid since, cashing in 12-of-13 events. You always seem to get a steady run from this estimable pro.

OTHER C-LIST OPTIONS:
• Charlie Wi finished fourth here last season, and I can't blame you if you keep rolling along with him. I'm looking away because of two reasons: I've already burned a lot of his 2009 starts, and he's missed the cut in two of his last three events.
• Brandt Jobe qualified for this event on Monday, and he's the top name on the C-List sheet when you peruse the entrant list -- he's made five consecutive cuts in 2009 when he's been able to get to the starting box. But the John Deere Classic hasn't been kind to him over the years; he's slammed the trunk five times in six visits.
• Jason Dufner is another consistent player vying for your attention (14 checks in 17 starts) and the Cleveland native should be comfortable at this Midwestern event. He's 39th in birdie average and 44th in par breakers, which is what you want to see here.
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