The Fantasy Insider: Shell Houston Open

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Geoff Ogilvy has two wins under his belt already this season and heads to a track he knows and plays well this week.

This has always been one of my favorite tournaments for a few seasons: I'm excited about spring, I like so many of the past champs here (Fred Couples, Stuart Appleby), and I love that this event draws such a strong field on the eve of the Masters. Houston, we've got no problem, I'll be tuned in for all four days.

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Last Week: My picks were somewhat chalky at Arnie's Place, but you can't argue with the results; all eight of the selections made the cut, led by Tiger Woods (winner), Sean O'Hair (second), Nick Watney (fourth) and Kenny Perry (eighth). Add it all up and the haul was 222 points, good enough to jump 1,654 slots in the standings. Let's keep it going into the Spring Session.

PGATOUR.com Fantasy Golf -- here are the rules in a nutshell:

We're picking eight players every week from three separate pools: two players from the A-List, four players from the B-List, and two players from the C-List.

From round to round, you'll "start" four of those players (one of your A players, two from B, one from C), making daily changes as you see fit. If your guys play well that day or for the week, you score well.

The eight players you pick at the beginning of the week are the only ones you can use and switch up during a particular tournament; the next week, you'll re-evaluate and refresh your group of eight.

You're allowed to use any player up to 10 starts for the year, and anything from 1-4 rounds in a given event counts as a single "start." As always, choose carefully, and have a long-term plan in addition to your short-term goals.

A-List Selections

GEOFF OGILVY (Round 1 starter): He's known for playing his best on tough courses, and he's done just fine at Redstone Golf Club, thank you (2, 62, 10, 7, 34). First in putting average and birdie average, 34th in GIR, 18th in scoring, that's almost unfair to have all of that in the bag. Ogilvy's Sunday scoring hasn't been ideal this year, but it's pretty darn tough to touch this guy over the first 54 holes (he's fourth in scoring before the cut, and seventh in Saturday scoring). I'm going to give him at least two rounds in the driver's seat, and a four-day hitch would not surprise me. K.J. CHOI: He's one of my favorite fantasy picks -- a consistent player who so often plays to the results on the form. Choi feels comfortable over the Redstone track (11, 19, 6, 11 over his last four visits), and his iron game should translate again this week (fourth in GIR, 28th in hole proximity). Other A-List Options: • It's scary to leave Vijay Singh on the bench, a guy who's won here three times this decade (2005, 2004, 2002), but there are obvious question marks here. Is the knee healthy? Is Singh's confidence in place? How do we spin last week's T59 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, on another course he likes? I know this could bite me in the leg, but I'm going to roll without the Big Fijian this week • Phil Mickelson hasn't made this tournament one of his regular stops, and he's got four ordinary results (for him) to point to on the resume: T23 last year, T28 in 2003, T30 in 1998, cut in 1995. We'll come back to Lefty next week at Augusta • Anthony Kim finished fifth when he first toured Redstone two years back, but he didn't see the weekend last year. Now, it's similar to Singh, you wonder about Kim's health and confidence; I'm not going to make a speculation play on him now • Justin Leonard has made 10-of-13 cuts at the Houston Shell Open, but he really hasn't contended since his T6 in 2002. The last six visits stack up this way: 39, 36, cut, cut, 29, 49 • Sergio Garcia and Paul Casey will get a lot of play from the name chasers, but neither player has made a start at this event. Ernie Els hasn't been on the grounds since his T17 run in 2003, and Justin Rose's last Houston pilgrimage came in 2004 (cut) • Padraig Harrington has three solid results on his Houston form (26, 24, 32), but his 2009 stats make me plenty nervous (178th in driving accuracy, 158th in GIR, 132nd in putting). While I recognize top players will often score far better than the individual stats suggest, it doesn't look like Harrington's on top of his game at the moment.

B-List Selections

STEVE STRICKER (Round 1 starter): You know he's one of the best putters around, and he's having a very precise year with his irons -- a must when you head to the large greens at Redstone. Stricker has contended at the Shell Houston Open the last three years (11, 9, 3), and I can't see how you skip over him now. CHARLEY HOFFMAN (Round 1 starter): He'll be a popular play in this group, but I'm not going to swim against the consistency Hoffman has shown this year (all finishes inside the Top 30). He certainly knows his way around Redstone, with three solid checks to his credit (6, 31, 21), and he's been one of the better putters and iron players on the PGA TOUR this season. The breakthrough is real: Hop on board. FRED COUPLES: You eat a cheese steak when you're in Philly, you try some deep-dish pizza on a Chicago trip and you pull for Boom Boom when the PGA TOUR stops in Houston -- his old college stomping grounds. Some rules and traditions simply can't be ignored. Freddie's emotional win here in 2003 was one of the highlights of the decade, and he's made 15 consecutive cuts at this event, including 11 finishes in the top 25. Trust the back class on the form. STUART APPLEBY: It's not easy to leave him on the bench to start (Appleby has won here twice and finished second two other times), but the 2009 results make you a little nervous; outside of the T8 at the Transitions Championship he's got nothing inside the top 30, and he finished 72-80-70 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational last week. Appleby stands 167th in driving accuracy and 139th in hole proximity, and that's a tricky thing to be carrying into the test of Redstone Golf Club. At the end of the day, I've decided he's too intriguing to ignore completely, but I'm not going to make him live unless the three names above force me into it. Other B-List Options: • David Toms has the skill set to contend here, that's for sure (straight driving, precise irons), but he didn't have the putter working at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and that's my tie-breaker in this spot. He's cashed seven times in 11 starts at the Shell Houston Open, including a T9 in the middle of the decade • Steve Marino's been routinely endorsed in this spot, but let's wait for a better course fit. He's yet to break the top 60 in two starts at Redstone • Angel Cabrera is a streaky player, but watch out if he gets some early confidence going off the tee. His one visit to the Shell Houston Open was a success, a T19 in 2007 • Davis Love III took this event off his calendar for 15 years before returning last season (T26). I'm not sure if there's an emotional effect to just missing the Masters field, and he's also coming off a missed cut at Arnie's Place (73-74); given that I've already used Love a bunch this year, I'm not going to spend a start on him now • Chad Campbell isn't a bad play if you want to dial up a Texan for this week, and he's done reasonably well in his last four visits to the Shell Houston Open (T2, cut, T21, T31) • Aaron Baddeley has become something of an enigma the last few seasons, and I've had some trouble finding logical angles towards when he'll play well. As for this week, let's keep it simple and note that he's improved his Shell Houston Open standing in each of his last three visits (13, 36, 65, WD) • Dustin Johnson's dynamic season to this point makes him a strong option just about anywhere, but I'd feel better if he had more experience at Redstone (just one start, a missed cut). His driving accuracy has been a little erratic this season, but just about everything else in his game is clicking: Eighth in driving distance, eighth in GIR, first in birdie average, 16th in scrambling, 32nd in putting. If I write anything else on Johnson, I'll talk myself into using him • Hunter Mahan has missed the cut three times in five stops here, but his two cashes were strong ones (T11, T5). He hasn't made a deep run yet this year, but he's still six-for-six in cuts made; a big check could be just around the corner • Lucas Glover likes the layout, and his results back that up (14, cut, 21, 7, 29). His balanced and consistent stat profile (fourth in total driving, 15th in scoring average, 46th in hole proximity) validate him as an intriguing Shell Sleeper.

C-List Selections

BEN CRANE (Round 1 starter): He's quietly off to an excellent start in 2009, grabbing a sole third at The Honda Classic, a T11 last week at Bay Hill, and a T7 at the Buick Invitational. The checks haven't been as rich in Houston, but he has made three straight cuts here (20, 37, 39), while most of the other C-list favorites have struggled at Redstone. Crane hits it straight off the tee (11th in accuracy), and he's sharp with his irons (37th in hole proximity) -- that's a good combo to have in the bag for this test. HENRIK STENSON: I'll openly admit I'm just chasing the name here; Stenson has yet to play the event, and he's struggled in the States this season. But there's too much talent for it not to turn at some point, and I'm not asking him to be a starter, merely a high-upside backup. He's got too much back class, and too much recent success overseas, for me to overreact to a few missteps on our side of the pond. Other C-List Options: • Johnson Wagner has to deal with the defending-champ curse this week, and he's already missed five cuts in 2009 (he's only broken 70 twice since the first month of the year, albeit both of those rounds did come last week). It's not the right time to roll with him • Jeff Maggert is an other interesting veteran to consider here; while he's missed the Houston cut in five of his last eight starts, the cashes were all rich ones (14, 7, 6). He finished second at this event three separate times in the 1990s • Luke Donald has been to this event just once (T31 in 2002), and it's hard to start him confidently when we're not sure on his health status (remember he had a sore wrist earlier this month, forcing him to skip The Honda Classic). Let's give him some time before we dial Donald up • Webb Simpson's having a heck of a rookie year playing on a host of unfamiliar courses, but given where he stands in driving accuracy (117th) and GIR (153rd), I'd prefer to keep him on the bench for this week • Scott Verplank had four straight trunk slams in Houston before last year's T14. His skill set should translate well to the test at hand.