Don't be surprised if it all comes down to the 17th

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PLAYERS leader Alex Cejka has played the par-3 17th in 1 under this week, but will the Sunday pressure affect him?

PONTE VEDRA BEACH, Fla. -- Imagine this: You're leading THE PLAYERS Championship as you reach the 17th on Sunday. There, the island hole awaits, a 4,000 square-foot green surrounded by liquid trouble.

Nerves will be tight. A dry throat will ensue. The pressure will be intense. That green -- large by Stadium Course standards -- will look like the size of that missing button off your favorite well-worn shirt. If you miss the green and find the water, you might very well be throwing away the championship.

Stephen Ames doesn't recall feeling any pressure when he reached the 17th green on the final day in 2006. Of course, it helped that he had a six-shot lead at the time.

"If you're one shot ahead or one shot behind, it changes things," said Ames, whose tee shot that Sunday landed safely on the green for an easy par. "Six shots ahead? Not really much to worry about."

Even though Alex Cejka will go into the final round with a five-stroke lead, it's doubtful the leader will arrive at the 17th tee so comfortably ahead this Sunday. The Stadium Course, vulnerable in the first two days, turned inhospitable in the third round, thanks to firmed-up greens baked by the First Coast sun, an uptick in wind, and harsh pin placements.

Take those conditions again Sunday and you wouldn't expect anybody -- well, unless Cejka, who has never won on the PGA TOUR, decides to put an Ames-like stranglehold on the rest of the field -- to run away with this thing.

Thus, you can expect the par-3 17th, as it often does in THE PLAYERS Championship, to come into play. It decided the winner in last year's playoff when Paul Goydos found the water and Sergio Garcia didn't. It could very well decide the 2009 title, too.

"A great drama hole," Ames said. "You can go for broke, or play it safe. It just depends on your situation."

Recent history suggests that Sunday's winner will be someone who successfully plays it safe. Of the nine winners this decade, only one -- Craig Perks in 2002 -- made birdie at 17 on the final day. And Perks had to drain a 30-footer (his only putt in that final three-hole stretch, by the way) to do that.

On the flip side, Fred Funk (2005) and Steve Elkington (1991) are the only PLAYERS champions in the last 20 years to bogey the 17th on Sunday and still survive.

The traditional pin placement on Sunday will likely be on the right side just over the bunker in the front. The play will be to land your ball on top of the plateau past the flag.

"If it happens to catch the ridge and go down toward the pin, great," said Jim Furyk, the Ponte Vedra Beach resident who knows the 17th as well as anyone. "If it doesn't, you'll have a really quick putt at it."

While the angle may remain the same, the hole may be playing a little different in terms of the club. Kenny Perry said he usually has used an 8- or 9-iron, but now he's reaching for a wedge. That might explain why the 17th has played to a scoring average of 2.940 through the first three rounds -- the first time it has played under par for the week since 1997.

Even more amazing is this: Almost 84 percent of the field has hit the 17th green in regulation through the first three rounds. That's the highest greens in regulation percentage through three rounds on the 17th since ShotLink began tracking the data in 1992.

"The hole is playing so much shorter than I ever remember in my 21 years in this tournament," he said. "I've never seen it play that short."

And as for aiming beyond the pin for that plateau?

"Anybody that flies it over toward that pin tomorrow is in trouble," warned Perry, noting how firm the green became Saturday. "It's probably going to bounce two hops and skip right into the lake."

So will the thought of the island hole possibly deciding his fate keep Cejka awake overnight? No. If anything makes him restless, it might be the thought of being paired with Tiger Woods.

But when it comes to the 17, Cejka actually likes the hole, and his record this week on it has been solid -- a birdie on Thursday when he drained an eight-foot putt, followed by two-putt pars the next two days, each from 30-plus feet.

Whether he's still ahead by five or fighting for the lead, Cejka doesn't anticipate changing his strategy.

"I've played it solidly in the past," he said after Saturday's third-round 72. "It's a tough hole ... but I'm just trying to go for the middle of the green, trying to hit it safe, trying to two-putt it.

"We'll see what tomorrow is. I really don't know. I personally haven't had trouble so far with 17. I like that hole."

The key, of course, will be whether he likes it when he and Tiger reach the tee Sunday and look out toward the vast crowd on the hill beyond the green. No one wants to die in a watery grave ... especially when THE PLAYERS Championship is on the line.

"With the pressure and trying to win THE PLAYERS on the line," Perry said, "definitely, that's an awesome hole."

That would be one way to describe it. And if you end up in the water and sink your chances? Well, then you're probably searching for another, less enthusiastic, possibly R-rated characterization.