World's top three face tough challenge over weekend

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Nos. 1, 2 and 3 in the world will need superb weekends to be in contention for the win this week.

May. 8, 2009
By Mike McAllister, PGATOUR.COM Managing Editor

PONTE VEDRA BEACH, Fla. -- Twenty-one players stand between Tiger Woods and the lead at THE PLAYERS Championship. Seems like a big hurdle going into the weekend, but it's not nearly as daunting as the 60 players who stand between Phil Mickelson and Sergio Garcia, two guys who are just glad to still be playing.

Those are the three biggest names we've kept an eye on this week. Woods. Mickelson. Garcia. The top three players in the world, each a former champion on the Stadium Course, larger-than-life figures on a stage overloaded with talent.

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We keep waiting for them to make a move, but time is quickly evaporating. During two days of perfect scoring conditions, with 46 sub-70 rounds recorded, the Tiger-Lefty-Sergio troika managed just one of those. And it wasn't even that low, Tiger's 69 on Friday was fairly lost amid the 65s and 66s and 67s dropped on the Stadium Course.

We keep waiting for the leaderboard to shake out, and Saturday's Moving Day should sort out the contenders from the pretenders. But while some of those names at the top certainly will backtrack with the pressure ratcheted up, you can't expect EVERYONE to back up, right?

Yes, some players who aren't used to leading such a big tournament will wake up Saturday morning in a cold sweat. But there are several who should be fairly impervious to the weekend pressure.

Take Ian Poulter, for one. A controversial Captain's Pick for Europe at last year's Ryder Cup, Poulter made a statement with a 4-1 record, best in a losing cause. Not only did he use that performance to step up his game, it also provided much-needed perspective.

Think Poulter -- in second place, two strokes off Alex Cejka's lead -- is worried about a pressure-filled weekend? He had half of Great Britain calling him out for not being a worthy selection by European captain Nick Faldo.

"I don't think I could probably play under as much pressure, to be honest with you," Poulter said.

And take Angel Cabrera, fresh off his second major win last month at Augusta National. Think he's feeling pressure? Heck, no. Overachievers don't feel pressure, and while Cabrera may be just meeting his expectations, many of us think he's far exceeded them.

Whatever he does from here on out is gravy. And now he's got a burst of confidence. Must be a nice feeling.

Speaking of confidence, take Henrik Stenson, who likes everything about the Stadium Course except the 237-yard par-3 eighth (he thinks it's too long). Stenson has two top-10 finishes in three starts here, and he's lurking quite nicely in a six-way tie for third.

Of course, he knows first-hand that big moves can be made in one day at TPC Sawgrass; he jumped 15 spots a year ago on the final day when the winds blew most golfers into a blind rage.

But those kinds of winds are not in the weekend forecast. In fact, the weather should be pretty much as it has been the first two days. Sure, the greens will be dry and firm, and the pin placements will be tougher.

"I've seen a few of the pin positions (for Saturday), and they're going to be short on a few of the greens," Stenson noted. "I think you're going to be putting a lot of times from 20-odd feet for birdie."

Yet, low scores are still attainable. More importantly, they'll still be attainable for a large pack of players. If you go low this weekend -- toss up a 65 or so -- then you're likely to have company.

Tiger could go out and shoot a course-record 63, for instance, but just how much ground would he really make up? Especially with so much traffic in front of him.

Tiger -- and Phil and Sergio to an even bigger degree -- will need a lot of help. And without windy conditions, that may be asking for the impossible.

Poulter expects the winning score to be 16 or 17 under. "Guys are going to still shoot some good scores (Saturday)," he said. "With the weather forecast that I've seen, it's perfect."

So say that it's 17 under. Tiger is at 4 under. He'd need to shoot 65-66 (or some other combination of 13 under) to get to that mark. Doable? Of course. He did that as recently as last year at the Buick Invitational. But then, that's at a course -- Torrey Pines -- which he owns.

Make no mistake -- the leaderboard that we see at the end of Saturday's third round should look significantly different than the one Friday night. But without a change in the weather, the three biggest names in the field may see their chances evaporate amidst the sunny skies, warm temperatures and calm conditions.