The Fantasy Insider: Northern Trust Open
By Scott Pianowski, The Fantasy Insider
Riviera Country Club is my kind of track, a layout where shotmaking, creativity and precision are more important than raw power. With the Oscars just around the corner, let's make a date to be in the L.A. area for four days this week.
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Here are the rules in a nutshell: We're picking eight players every week from three separate pools -- two players from the A-List, four players from the B-List, and two players from the C-List. From round to round, you'll "start" four of those players (one of your A players, two from B, one from C), making daily changes as you see fit. If your guys play well that day or for the week, you score well. The eight players you pick at the beginning of the week are the only ones you can use and switch up during a particular tournament; the next week, you'll re-evaluate and refresh your group of eight.
You're allowed to use any player up to 10 starts for the year, and anything from 1-4 rounds in a given event counts as a single "start." As always, choose carefully, and have a long-term plan in addition to your short-term goals.
A-List Selections
Jim Furyk (Round 1 Starter): Precision trumps power at Riviera Country Club, and anytime you hear that sort of thing, Furyk's name comes to mind rather quickly. Furyk didn't make the cut at the Northern Trust Open last year, but he made the cut in the seven prior seasons, including a tie for third in 2007 and a tie for 12th in 2006. Furyk wasn't on top of his game at Pebble Beach last week, but at least he had a chance to shake the cobwebs out; I'm expecting four strong rounds from the consistent vet in this spot.
Mike Weir: No need to get cute, Weir's one of the most obvious selections of the week. He won this event in 2003 and 2004, and he's already made a couple of deep runs in 2009 (second at Pebble, tie for third at the 5th Bob Hope Chrysler Classic hosted by Arnold Palmer). You can rely on Weir's steady putting just about every week, he's in a ball-striking groove at the moment and he's got a sharp mind when trouble strikes (third in scrambling). Sign me up.
Other A-List Options: It wasn't easy to skip over Robert Allenby here, and I can't blame you if you decide to dial up the sweet-swinging Aussie for the Northern Trust Open. He won the event in 2001, he's contended in four of the last five seasons (7, 3, cut, 7, 15) and he's made 27 consecutive cuts on the PGA TOUR. The only question to Allenby is sharpness, as he's making his 2009 debut on the PGA TOUR, but his sweet iron play always makes him a major threat in L.A. ... Phil Mickelson won the Northern Trust Open last year, and he just missed the previous season (Charles Howell beat him in a playoff), but how can we look past the troubles Mickelson is having so far in 2009 (cut, T42, T55)? I need one good-faith tournament before I start aggressively starting Mickelson again. On the positive side, at least Mickelson got a tiny bit of momentum started at the end of Pebble Beach, making two late birdies Saturday to sneak inside the cut line. ... Kenny Perry is off and running again in 2009 with a victory and two other top 10s, but the Northern Trust Open hasn't been his strongest tournament over the years; while he's made nine of 10 cuts at Riviera, the top finish was a tie for 31st. ... Padraig Harrington looks like another horse for the course, and he's quickly grown comfortable at Riviera, finishing seventh in his Northern Trust Open debut two years ago, then a tie for third last year. ... Vijay Singh has eight consecutive checks at Riviera, but only one of them cracked the top 20. ... This is one of the few weeks we won't consider Geoff Ogilvy for too long; he's slammed the Friday trunk four times in six Riviera visits. ... Justin Leonard's skill set would seem like a fit for the Northern Trust Open, but it hasn't played out that way. He's missed six of 11 cuts here, and only one finish landed inside the top 35. ... Ernie Els won here in 1999 and ran third two years ago, so you have to wonder why the Northern Trust Open isn't on his yearly play list. Els has been exquisite with the irons thus far in 2009 (second in GIR), but he needs to get something working on the greens (160th in putts per round). He's closer to his peak form than you might think; watch out if Els gets a couple of putts to drop early in the week. ... K.J. Choi is another solid play here, taking dead aim with his straight driver (eighth in accuracy) and reliable iron game (16th in GIR). He's made eight consecutive cuts at the Northern Trust Open, including a tie for seventh last season. ... Kevin Sutherland has 11 cashes in 13 starts at this event and was seventh back in 2005, but the depth of the field steers me away from him this week. ... I'm generally a Ben Curtis believer, but he hasn't settled in at Riviera yet (62, 37, 77, cut, cut).
B-List Selections
Zach Johnson (Round 1 Starter): He's got the type of game that fits Riviera (sure driving, consistent irons), he's grabbed six consecutive checks here, and he's off to a dynamite start in 2009 (tied for sixth at the Mercedes-Benz Championship, the win at the Sony Open, ties for 12th at the FBR Open). It's a little surprising that Johnson hasn't cracked the top 20 at the Northern Trust Open yet, but there are too many things in his corner for it not to happen eventually. This has the feel of a four-day starter.
John Rollins (Round 1 Starter): He got his game in gear at the Buick Invitational (second), and he's found Riviera to his liking, running 14th, 18th and fifth the last three seasons. The key for Rollins will be off the tee for the first couple of rounds, but he's brimming with confidence right now, and this looks like one of the better spots on the schedule to roll with him.
Tim Clark: He's missed two cuts in five starts at the Northern Trust Open, and he's certainly no bomber off the tee, but Clark's hits at Riviera have been notable ones (12, 29, 10) and his shotmaker profile fits the challenge of the week. Clark was starting to get some momentum going late last week, and I'm calling for a carryover effect in L.A.
Bob Estes: Meet one of my favorite sleepers of the week -- a solid but often-overlooked veteran who's in a good spot returning to Riviera. Estes has seven top-20 finishes at this event over the years, he's already banked three checks in 2009 (including a tied for fourth last week and a tie for 12th at the Sony Open) and he's got an accurate driver (56th in tee accuracy last year) and radar irons (11th in GIR) -- skills that translate to success at the Northern Trust Open. Estes has a lot of strong golf left in him at age 43.
Other B-List Options: Rory Sabbatini has plenty of success banked at Riviera (including a win in 2006), and he opened the new season with a couple of strong finishes (T12, T12) before a struggle at the Buick Invitational. If the confidence comes back quickly for Sabbatini over this familiar track, he's got an outstanding chance to contend again. ... Aaron Baddeley's angelic putting stroke gives him a shot anywhere, and he's cashed six straight times at the Northern Trust Open, including a tie for 13th in 2007 and a tie for seventh four starts back. ... Chad Campbell is one of the best iron players around (13th in GIR last year, fifth this season), and he's made six straight cuts at Riviera, including a tie for second in 2005. ... Give it up for Pebble Beach champ Dustin Johnson, who's now got two career victories and is quietly making a name for himself as one of the 20-something players to watch. I'm going to wait before I slide him onto the roster; his driving-accuracy rank (147th) isn't ideally suited for the challenge at hand. ... Steve Stricker came back to L.A. last year after a brief absence and quickly got reacquainted with Riviera, finishing tied for 11th. His accuracy off the tee is an issue now and again, but the rest of his game has been in fine form thus far this season (16th in GIR, 50th in putting, 17th in scoring). ... D.J. Trahan might be having the best under-the-radar start to 2009 (6-32-14-17-6), and he's made three consecutive cuts at Riviera; albeit he hasn't tapped the top 20 yet. It will be interesting to see how he rebounds from the disappointment of last week's Pebble Beach conclusion; he had a chance to earn a slot in the World Golf Championships-Accenture Match Play Championship with a strong Monday, but the weather had other ideas. ... Pat Perez is a cut-maker at the Northern Trust Open (eight in a row), but he's only been in serious contention once, the tight for eighth check two seasons back. ... Steven Ames skipped this event last season and didn't make it to the weekend the three prior seasons, so let's wait for a better position on him. ... Nick Watney didn't make the cut at Riviera the last two seasons, and he doesn't fit the profile of a Riviera favorite (121st in driving accuracy, 111th in GIR). That to the side, he did run 19th here in 2006, and his results so far this season speak for themselves (25-12-1-22); you have to at least consider Watney this week. ... Stuart Appleby can point to five consecutive checks at the Northern Trust Open, with a pair of top 10s. ... Carl Pettersson is a solid selection at just about any event, and he's made the weekend five times in six Riviera stops, including a 13th two years back and a tie for seventh in 2006. ... Fred Couples knows his way around Riviera as well as anyone, with 24 cuts made in 26 starts over the years. He won the tournament twice in the 90s, and he finished fourth as recently as 2007. ... UCLA product Corey Pavin is another "experience sleeper" to consider; like Couples, he has a pair of Riviera wins from the 90s, and he's stayed through the weekend in 10 of his last 13 starts here. Pavin's modest length off the tee isn't as much of a factor this week.
C-List Selections
Luke Donald (Round 1 Starter): He's been able to score consistently this year despite some inconsistent ball striking; that's what a composed makeup and a strong putter will do for you. Donald's chances always rate a bump forward when it's a course that rewards shotmaking over the home-run ball, and he's been a factor at the Northern Trust Open in three of the past four seasons (3, cut, 12, 13).
Matt Kuchar: He's been on top of his game for three consecutive weeks (T25, T6, T14), and he's already comfortable at Riviera, making the cut four years running. Get out the post-hype sleeper list, it's time to make another entry; the breakthrough many expected from Kuchar during his 20s might just sneak up on everyone now that he's hit the 30 mark and isn't under quite the same amount of pressure. If he can hold onto his 2009 confidence on the greens, Kuchar might be hoisting a trophy at some point in the coming months.
Other C-List Options: If you don't like the two Group-C starters I've selected, maybe Charles Howell III is more your speed. He won it all at Riviera in 2007 (beating Mickelson in a playoff), and he ran second to Mike Weir (also in a playoff) back in 2003. Howell has seven consecutive checks over the track, and he's off to a steady start in 2009. ... I'd love to dial up Scott Verplank in this spot; the amiable Texan has eight consecutive checks here, he ran fifth at the Northern Trust Open in 2008, and he's always a solid pick on this type of setup. That said, Verplank's also coming off a pair of missed cuts, which means he needs to play his way back onto my roster. ... Retief Goosen hit the States with a bang this month, grabbing a tie for 26th at the Buick Invitational and then finishing in solo third at Pebble Beach (even with Saturday's disappointing 74). He's got an ordinary form at Riviera (cut, 51), but he's a name you need to at least think about any time he's teeing it up. ... Steady Nick O'Hern got a lot of play in this column last year, and I'm sure he will again, but this is his first start off a torn thumb ligament, so we'll need to see a few game shots first. ... George McNeill has two respectable checks at this event and although his stat line is a little all over the place, he's found a way to rank 12th in scoring through the opening six events. That shows resourcefulness, and that puts him on my radar. ... Harrison Frazar got back on the ball at the Buick Invitational (T19), and he's grabbed a top-20 check in his last two trips to Riviera. ... Ben Crane has made it to the weekend in four of five visits to the Northern Trust Open, but he's yet to break the top 50. ... Charlie Wi should be a nice fit for Riviera, bringing a true driver, steady irons and a smooth putter. He figured out things quickly in his Riviera debut last season (T14).
Last Week: I was as sad as anyone to see the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro Am end prematurely - all eight of our selections in this space finished in the top 40, spearheaded by Mike Weir in second place. As a result, your humble correspondent jumped 1,760 slots in the national standings. Let's keep the ball rolling this week.
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