The Fantasy Insider: Sony Open in Hawaii
By Scott Pianowski, The Fantasy Insider
Our first crack at Fantasy Handicapping 2009 was a good-not-great effort -- 182 points puts us in the 82nd percentile in the PGATOUR.COM Fantasy Game, and we got better as the week went along. Sure, we missed winner Geoff Ogilvy, but we did land three in the top six with Davis Love III, Sean O'Hair and Ernie Els, and our scores had plenty of red numbers over the last 36 holes. Let's keep the momentum going and see what we can do at the Sony Open in Week 2.
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Here are the rules in a nutshell:
We're picking eight players every week from three separate pools: two players from the A-List, four players from the B-List, and two players from the C-List. From round to round, you'll "start" four of those players (one of your A players, two from B, one from C), making daily changes as you see fit. If your guys play well that day or for the week, you score well. The eight players you pick at the beginning of the week are the only ones you can use and switch up during a particular tournament; the next week, you'll re-evaluate and refresh your group of eight.
You're allowed to use any player up to 10 starts for the year, and anything from 1-4 rounds in a given event counts as a single "start." As always, choose carefully, and have a long-term plan in addition to your short-term goals.
Alright, time to put the rulebook aside and let's get down to brass tacks -- some Week 2 winners.
A-List Selections
Ernie Els (Round 1 starter): He earned a lot of cred in our eyes with his snappy debut at Kapalua, and now he's returning to a Waialae Country Club-- a layout that's always been good to him (two wins, and nothing outside of fifth over five starts). Els hasn't made this stop in the last three seasons, and you have to wonder why given that dynamic resume. There's no way we're not using him here.
K.J. Choi: It's not how far you blast the ball at Waialae, it's where you put it and how creative you are around the greens. Sounds like a track suited for Choi, who won here in 2008 and was fourth the previous season.
Other A-List Options: Geoff Ogilvy ran eighth here last time, but his previous four starts at the Sony Open resulted in Friday night trunk slams. I'll wait before I put him in play. ... Kenny Perry likes the area but hasn't figured out the course; just one top-20 finish in 13 starts here. ... Stewart Cink is a tricky call; he's made a couple of top 10s at the Sony Open, but he's also missed four cuts, and I didn't like seeing his weekend scoring problems start early in 2009. I'll pass on him here. ... Parker McLachlin returns to his home course, and he was tied for 10th here last year. Not the worst sleeper play in the world.
B-List Selections
Davis Love (Round 1 starter): Love ended the 2008 campaign with momentum, and it carried over to the Mercedes-Benz Championship, where he played beautifully from beginning to end (especially with his irons and putter). He's got four top-10 checks over nine starts at Waialae Country Club, so look for the comeback story to continue.
Steve Stricker (Round 1 starter): He's generally a fast starter, and success at the Sony Open has played into that. He's been fourth in each of the last two years, and he's got four other finishes here in the top 14. His precision iron game will serve him well at Waialae.
Steve Marino: I fully expect him to grab a victory at some point this season, and why not at a shotmakers paradise like Waialae? Marino was a decent 34th at the Sony Open when he first walked the grounds, and he bumped that up to a tie for fourth last year.
Steve Lowery: He's made this a regular stop so he certainly knows the course, and he probably played better than his finish showed last week; he was fourth in driving accuracy and fourth in putting. Let's get one more veteran on the roster for Week 2, Mr. Lowery.
Other B-List Options: Adam Scott's yet to make a serious run at the Sony Open in three starts, and as I've said a few times already in 2009, I'm in "prove it to me" mode with the talented but inconsistent Aussie. I'm not dialing him up this week . . . Waialae is a track that rewards accuracy over pure power, and J.B. Holmes didn't come out of the chute firing on all cylinders last week anyway (30th in driving accuracy, 28th in GIR, 29th in putting), so let's look for other options . . . Daniel Chopra has made three cuts here but nothing better than 28th . . . Zach Johnson struggled some with his driving and iron play at Kapalua, and his best showing at the Sony Open in two starts is a tie for 47th . . . I'd love to say a few nice words about Tim Clark this week -- he's a key to my hometown auction team -- but he's yet to play this event, so temper your expectations . . . Carl Pettersson was one of the best putters on TOUR in 2008, but he looked like he was fighting his stroke a little bit at the Mercedes-Benz Championship. Let's give him some time to get in gear . . . Bubba Watson slipped to 48th here last season after finishing fourth the year before. I'd like to save him for a course that is more geared to his prodigious length.
C-List Selections
Luke Donald (Round 1 starter): I've had him on all my sleeper and target lists the last few weeks, and I love his chances to get off to a strong push here. Donald's game has always been more about precision than power, and the Sony Open in Hawaii has agreed with him (2, 13, 20, cut, 13).
Charles Howell: It's a course that suits his eye, and he often hits the ground running at the beginning of a new season. Howell has never missed a cut at Waialae, and that includes a tie for second and two other Top-5 finishes.
Others C-List Options: I'm not going to be shy about using Chez Reavie as a sleeper pick this year and I like how he finished last week at the Mercedes-Benz Championship, but we also have to be mindful that he's making his Sony Open debut this week, and that keeps him off my sheet . . . Welcome back, Notah Begay, and here's hoping you can cash in on your world of talent this year. I'm going to wait to dial up Begay, however; in five turns here, his best showing is a T26 . . . Arron Oberholser has star potential if he can just stay healthy, I don't think anyone disputes that. His game might not match up ideally for Waialae, however; he's yet to crack the Top 25 in three turns at this track . . . Harrison Frazar made a run here four starts back, finishing in second, but since then the story has been "Down Goes Frazar" -- cut, cut, 34th. I can't ignore the current trend, but I know we'll be using Frazar plenty in the C-list this year.
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