The Fantasy Insider: AT&T Pebble Beach Nat'l Pro-Am
By Scott Pianowski, The Fantasy Insider
The event is worth watching for the aerial shots alone, and according to a recent Golf Digest player survey, Pebble Beach is the consensus choice among current courses. Sounds like a good place to be for four days, let's have a look around the ol' Clambake.
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Here are the rules in a nutshell:
We're picking eight players every week from three separate pools: Two players from the A-List, four players from the B-List, and two players from the C-List. From round to round, you'll "start" four of those players (one of your A players, two from B, one from C), making daily changes as you see fit. If your guys play well that day or for the week, you score well. The eight players you pick at the beginning of the week are the only ones you can use and switch up during a particular tournament; the next week, you'll re-evaluate and refresh your group of eight.
You're allowed to use any player up to 10 starts for the year, and anything from 1-4 rounds in a given event counts as a single "start." As always, choose carefully, and have a long-term plan in addition to your short-term goals.
Alright, time to put the rulebook aside and head to Northern California for some winners.
A-List Selections
Mike Weir (Round 1 Starter): He's been on top of his game from the middle of last summer, and the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am has usually agreed with him (14, cut, 3, 2, 4, 3 over his last six visits). Patience and shot-shaping are keys to a strong week here, and that sounds like an order tailor-made for Weir. Maybe he's not the left-hander you expected, but he's the right play in all formats.
Jim Furyk: It's his first start of the season, and it's a good place to break the ice; Furyk has cashed 11 times in 12 starts here, with an average finish of 17th. All three of the courses used at the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am are under 7,000 yards, and that's probably advantageous to a grinding technician like Furyk. His beloved Pittsburgh Steelers hoisted a trophy not long ago, and Furyk might keep the Steel City vibe rolling this week.
Other A-List Options: OK, Phil Mickelson has those three pretty wins here (2007, 2005, 1998) and he was third in 2004, but given the way he's driving and putting it right now, how can we use one of our 10 Lefty plays? I can't do it. ... Kenny Perry hasn't been here since 2003, and his long ball off the tee is negated some by the length of the courses. It's a bit surprising he phased the event out, as his last three finishes were good ones (22, 13, 20). ... Vijay Singh won the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am in 2004 and he's been second three times (including a 2008 playoff loss), but his sharpness off of knee surgery is anyone's guess. ... I wanted to use California native John Mallinger in this spot -- he's run third at the Clambake the last two seasons -- but his slow start in 2009 (three missed cuts in four starts) forces him to my bench. ... K.J. Choi had a profile that should lead to success here, but he's only cracked the top 20 twice in seven stops. ... Padraig Harrington has two decent checks in two Clambake starts (30, 14), and he didn't look bad in his PGA TOUR debut last week at the Buick Invitational (T24). You don't need me to hold your hand here, the steady Irishman is a solid play as usual. ... Kevin Na's already got two top fives on the new season, so maybe he's ready to make a run at the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am. He's putting as well as anyone these days, but his first two stops here were ordinary (43, 69). ... Steve Elkington has made it to the weekend in four of his last five visits, but he hasn't cracked the top 45 since the 1990s. Let the estimable vet get back in form first.
B-List Selections
Tim Clark (Round 1 Starter): He's made a deep run in three of his last five stops here (12, 4, 10), and the course setup matches up well with his skill set (putting is more important than brute force off the tee). Clark showed excellent form in his two January starts (second in driving accuracy, seventh in GIR, fifth in scoring, 37th in putting), and I'm fully expecting four strong rounds from him at the Clambake.
Nick Watney (Round 1 Starter): He's playing too well to bench now: T25 at the Bob Hope Classic, T12 at the FBR Open and last week's win of course. A little confidence on the greens goes a long way, doesn't it? Only one of Watney's four checks at the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am was anything to speak of (T7 three years ago), but I can't see why you'd want to look away from someone who's this locked in at the moment.
Charley Hoffman: I'm throwing his ordinary AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am history out the window and trusting what he's shown over the first month of the season: A devastating driver (we knew that all along), radar-lock irons (fourth in GIR) and creativity around the green (fifth in scrambling). He's cashed twice in three stops here but hasn't contended yet; Hoffman can break through this time around.
Davis Love III: We're using him aggressively early in the season and why not - he's visiting courses where he's got a history of success and he's got a win (Children's Miracle Network Classic) and a near win (Sony Open) over the last couple of months. Love won the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am in 2001 and 2003 in addition to five other top 10s; if he gets a little momentum with the putter early in the week, watch out on Sunday.
Other B-List Options: It's great to see Paul Goydos back on a golf course, and he's got a chance to do something here. He's got four top 15s, including a fourth-place check in 2005. ... David Toms has been good to us several times in 2009, but this hasn't been his sharpest event over the years (three missed cuts in his last four starts). ... Mathew Goggin has three straight cashes here but nothing better than 43rd. He's going to win at some point in 2009, but I'll chase it a different week. ... I like Sean O'Hair's makeup and his game tee-to-green, but the putting hasn't been as consistent during his brief career, and he's missed two straight cuts here. ... Hunter Mahan bagged a couple of top 20s at the Clambake before last year's missed cut, and he's been in fine form so far this year (T11 at the Buick Invitational, T35 at the FBR Open). ... Pat Perez is comfortable at this event, grabbing five checks in six starts including three top-25 finishes (his near-miss at the 2002 Clambake might have had some scarring effects, but now that Perez has broken through and won, it's just part of the tapestry of his career). ... J.J. Henry is still a heck of a ball striker, but this is a tricky event to be at if you're not feeling good about your putting. Henry hasn't played the weekend in four of his last six stops here. ... Dudley Hart returned to the Clambake last year after a five-season absence and came in third. The resume goes back into the last decade, but he has made the cut in his last six starts here. ... Comebacking Shigeki Maruyama is going to sneak up on a lot of fantasy golf players this year, write that down in ink. I was all set to give him a shot this week until I realized he's got almost no history at Pebble Beach; just a T63 back in 1997. We'll wait on this one. ... Peanuts creator Charles M. Schultz loved to play in this event, and as a salute to him, we'll put Bo Van Pelt (no relation to Lucy or Linus) on our sleeper list. Van Pelt earns the nod on merit, of course; he's grabbed five straight checks at the Clambake, four of them inside the top 25. ... Joe Ogilvie has three strong finishes in his last four visits to the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am (9, 14, 16), so let's consider the brainy Duke grad in this spot (assuming he doesn't wear himself out rooting for his alma mater against North Carolina on the hardwood Wednesday night). Ogilvie's creativity and confidence on the greens gives him an excellent shot to contend here.
C-List Selections
Matt Kuchar (Round 1 Starter): He's stayed for the weekend in four of his last five stops here, including a top-10 check two years back, but this pick is more about what he's shown recently (T25 at the Bob Hope Classic, T6 at the FBR Open). Kuchar's 2009 stat profile is very balanced and doesn't reveal an obvious weakness, something that always gets my attention. Let's give the smiling Georgia Tech product a start this week.
Charles Howell III: I'm using a lot of plays on him early, but you let it fly when you're feeling good, and I've always liked picking Howell early in the year, especially in California events. He didn't go deep at the Clambake last year, but he had a nice three-year run prior to that (11, 35, 12), and he's only had two off rounds out of 10 so far this season.
Other C-List Options: I know you see Retief Goosen's name and you're dying to use him, but it's his debut at the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am -- you have to play it cool. There will be better spots to roll with the cool South African. ... The hits keep coming for Webb Simpson (T19 at the Buick Invitational), but I have to slide the rookie to the bench as he plays for the fifth week in a row. Eventually that's going to catch up to anyone. ... Kevin Streelman hasn't found his best foot at the Clambake yet, missing the cut in both of his visits . . . Tom Pernice isn't the biggest bomber on TOUR, but that's less of an issue at these three courses, and Pernice has proven in the past that he can compete at the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am (seven checks, three top-15 finishes, one second-place run). His iron play and putting has been steady so far in 2009, and he's quietly cashed in all three of his starts (including a T9 at the Bob Hope Classic). ... Charlie Wi has been over the grounds three times but has yet to crack the top 50. ... Ryan Palmer didn't make the cut at the Clambake last year, but he turned in three solid finishes prior to that (23, 51, 35). I still see plenty of sleeper potential with this versatile player, and I wouldn't hesitate to use him in deeper formats this week.
Last Week: Some progress, but it's still baby steps -- while seven of our eight selections made the cut last week, none of them were able to shoot into the 60s on the weekend. At least we got four rounds out of Luke Donald (T7), and Aaron Baddeley stood up with a T11 check. The key to making a serious move up the leaderboard is bagging a few top-three finishes -- where the bonus points are.
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