The Fantasy Insider: Buick Invitational at Torrey Pines
By Scott Pianowski, The Fantasy Insider
Close your eyes and do a little (Southern) California Dreaming as we head to beautiful La Jolla for a week at Torrey Pines.
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Here are the rules in a nutshell:
We're picking eight players every week from three separate pools: two players from the A-List, four players from the B-List, and two players from the C-List. From round to round, you'll "start" four of those players (one of your A players, two from B, one from C), making daily changes as you see fit. If your guys play well that day or for the week, you score well. The eight players you pick at the beginning of the week are the only ones you can use and switch up during a particular tournament; the next week, you'll re-evaluate and refresh your group of eight.
You're allowed to use any player up to 10 starts for the year, and anything from 1-4 rounds in a given event counts as a single "start." As always, choose carefully, and have a long-term plan in addition to your short-term goals.
Alright, time to put the rulebook aside and head to California for some Week 3 winners.
A-List Selections
Phil Mickelson (Round 1 Starter): Here we go again. It's a home game for Phil, it's a course that fits him to a tee, he's the favorite -- and oh yeah, he's coming off that stunning missed cut at the FBR Open (where all the same conditions applied). But I gotta give Lefty a pass; he's got three wins at Torrey Pines (2001, 2000, 1993), he's been in the top 6 on eight occasions and this is a layout that welcomes power and often forgives a wayward tee shot. That's right up Mickelson's alley, and I'm expecting him to make amends, and quickly.
Kevin Sutherland: He was solid for us last week (T21) and he's been a steady check-grabber at the Buick Invitational, making 11 cuts in a row (seven top-20s). If Sutherland can tighten up his scoring a little bit on Sunday here (that's been the issue the last three years), he could make a run at a top-10 finish. He's off to an excellent start striking the ball in 2009, ranking 42nd in driving distance, 52nd in accuracy and sixth in GIR.
Other A-List Options: Camilo Villegas is hard to look past on any track, and he played well at Torrey Pines last year (13th at the Buick Invitational, T9 at the U.S. Open). Nonetheless, I'm going to let him work through his putting slump before I go back to him . . . Ryuji Imada is one of the most reliable fantasy players around these days, and he's improved in his last three visits at the Buick Invitational (2, 16, 39, 76). Had I not been sold on Sutherland, Imada would be in my starting lineup . . . Paddy Harrington normally doesn't play this event so I'm not going to get star-struck by the name. Still, it's always more fun when elite European players come over and add to the field, and this seems like a course that he could do well on . . . John Senden has four checks in five starts at the Buick Invitational, including an eighth and a 13th . . . John Merrick figured out Torrey Pines during last year's U.S. Open (T6), and he's made three straight cuts this year (including a sole second at the Bob Hope Classic) . . . Cliff Kresge hit a rough patch to end 2008 (missing seven straight cuts), but he's quickly erased the memory with three straight cashes in 2009. He's yet to break the Top 30 at the Buick Invitational, but he has made three cuts in four starts.
B-List Selections
Rory Sabbatini (Round 1 Starter): Here's a very sneaky comeback story that's yet to draw a ton of attention. Sabbatini finished T12 at the Sony Open and then did the same at the FBR, and he's always liked the layout at Buick Invitational (third last year, 16th three years back, and a handful of other strong finishes). I definitely regret not pursuing Sabbatini more seriously in my hometown Calcutta league, but I'll happily hitch up to his game for this week.
Davis Love (Round 1 Starter): Sticking with the comeback theme, let's give Love a shot at a course that's always fit his eye (he won here in 1996, and has two recent top-5s on the resume). The fall victory took a ton of pressure off of Love's shoulders, and don't forget he finished second right out of the chute at the Mercedes-Benz Championship. There's a lot of good golf left in the UNC grad.
Carl Pettersson: He contended at last year's U.S. Open (T6), and he's had some good runs at the Buick Invitational (19, MC, 43, 30, MC, 2). There's something reassuring about having strong putters on your team, and Pettersson has turned into one of the best around, finishing 29th and 37th in putts per round the last two seasons.
Aaron Baddeley: He's made six straight cuts at Torrey Pines, including a T13 at the Buick last year and a T29 at the U.S. Open. Two good rounds and two mediocre ones at the FBR Open added up to a T35 finish, but we all know how dangerous Baddeley can be when his angelic putter falls into a groove.
Other B-List Options: . . . Brandt Snedeker contended at last year's U.S. Open (T9) and he finished third in his Buick Invitational debut a few years back, so he's gotten comfortable here quickly. Obviously he didn't hit the ground running at the FBR Open last week (72-71), but a name player like Snedeker will get the benefit of the doubt from me . . . Brian Gay deserves consideration with those three snappy Top-20 finishes on his 2009 resume, but he's never done much at Torrey Pines (one check in four starts, a T68) . . . Hunter Mahan has made the weekend in his last two Buick Invitationals, but his best finish is an ordinary 29th and I'd like to see more 2009 data before I sign up . . . Pat Perez is an interesting gambit this week with his maiden win fresh in everyone's mind, but he's missed four cuts in seven turns here, and only one check landed inside the top 35 . . . Nathan Green doesn't have the course-fitting profile for Torrey Pines (he's not a bomber off the tee), but he ran second in his debut here and he was tied for 11th last year. He's shown some form early in 2009, with a T12 at the Sony Open and a check last week at the FBR Open (T48), and the missed cut at the Bob Hope Classic was really just one bad round (69-65-75-67). A good sleeper . . . Charley Hoffman's always been a dangerous ball striker, so if he maintains his confidence on the greens, look out. Torrey Pines used to be a house of horrors for him (one made cut in seven stops), but he's made four cuts in a row since (67, 31, 16, 56) . . . I'm pretty much always wrong when I dispense J.B. Holmes advice, so you're on your own with the Wildcat Wonder. His skill set does seem to fit what would succeed at Torrey Pines (long drives, the occasional miss), but he's got an ordinary record so far at the Buick Invitational (44, cut, 28) . . . Woody Austin will get plenty of chances to play into our good graces, but he's been ordinary here (5-for-12 on cuts made, nothing inside the top 20) . . . Mathew Goggin and Steve Marino will win this year, this is a recording. Marino has a pair of decent cashes over this track (23, 20), while Goggin has four checks in six trips (35, 27, 22, 82). If you were torn between the two as your final pick this week, I'd steer you towards Marino, who's done a little more so far in 2009 . . . Fred Couples has a long-running history of success here (17-for-19 on cuts), and he quietly finished T8 last year. Not the worst deep-sleeper play of the week, that's for sure.
C-List Selections
Luke Donald (Round 1 Starter): He looks healthy and comfortable back on the beat, grabbing a pair of top-25 checks to open the season. Donald has finished second twice at the Buick Invitational in recent years (running second to John Daly and Tiger Woods) and he's never done worse than 24th over five starts, so he knows what you need to do at Torrey Pines. I'll be surprised if Donald isn't the C-List consensus player here, and I'm not going to rock the boat.
Charles Howell: Another potential horse for the course, as Howell has six straight cashes here and four of them have been heavy (13, 2, 2, 7). He's coming off a missed cut at the FBR Open, of course, but I like the confidence Howell showed at the Sony Open and I see him as a very safe pick in this spot.
Others C-List Options: Rocco Mediate would be an interesting sleeper play this week (remember his brilliant duel with Tiger last summer?), but he's withdrawn from the tournament . . . It's been a whirlwind run for rookie Webb Simpson, but he did struggle on the weekend in Arizona (77-75) and he's playing for the fourth week in a row and on a course he's not familiar with. We'll come back to him . . . It's the first Buick Invitational start for Retief Goosen, so we can't be too aggressive, but he's got the length and the smarts to figure out things quickly . . . Brandt Jobe has a hit-and-miss record at the Buick Invitational (4-for-9), but the cashes have been solid ones (10, 18, 10, 13) . . . Give Arron Oberholser a few years of good health and I bet anything he turns into a star. He's from the area and he's always liked playing here (15, 6, 72, 4), though his last Buick Invitational start was in 2006 . . . Charlie Wi ran ninth at this event last year and he's coming off checks the last two weeks, albeit nothing inside the Top 30. You generally get a solid start from him, with 21 made cuts last season.
Last Week: I'm just glad it's a long season and a new month because we haven't been quick off the mark so far in 2009. The experiment at the FBR Open was not to chase Round 1 trends -- for the Round 2 starters I stuck with anyone coming off a poor opener and needing a bounce-back score -- and that strategy, for one week anyway, didn't work at all. David Toms (T4) and Kevin Sutherland (T21) had their moments, but we didn't get to Simpson until his weekend struggles, and obviously two rounds of Mickelson (76-73) failed to produce a fantasy point. The sooner we can get to Torrey Pines and start over, the better.
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