The Fantasy Insider: FBR Open at TPC Scottsdale
By Scott Pianowski, The Fantasy Insider
Put on your sunscreen and flip-flops, pour a beverage of your choosing and let's set sail for the FBR Open, one of the most raucous parties of the year. Birdies are plentiful at the TPC Scottsdale track -- in part because of the dynamite putting conditions -- so we'll probably be looking at a leaderboard on Sunday that's painted Arizona Cardinal red.
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Here are the rules in a nutshell: We're picking eight players every week from three separate pools: Two players from the A-List, four players from the B-List, and two players from the C-List. From round to round, you'll "start" four of those players (one of your A players, two from B, one from C), making daily changes as you see fit. If your guys play well that day or for the week, you score well. The eight players you pick at the beginning of the week are the only ones you can use and switch up during a particular tournament; the next week, you'll re-evaluate and refresh your group of eight.
You're allowed to use any player up to 10 starts for the year, and anything from 1-4 rounds in a given event counts as a single "start." As always, choose carefully, and have a long-term plan in addition to your short-term goals.
Alright, time to put the rulebook aside and head to Arizona for some Week 3 winners.
A-List Selections
Phil Mickelson (Round 1 Starter): If you're going to leave Mickelson on your bench, you better have a good reason, and you're not going to find it at this event. He's an adopted son in Arizona as you know (ASU salutes you, Phil), he's won here twice, and he's got five top 10s at the FBR Open over the last six years. Better yet, a lot of his chief rivals don't have sterling track records at TPC Scottsdale. We obviously can't dial up Lefty every week, but I can't build a case for passing on him in what should be a strong debut. Mickelson will start for us on Thursday, and there's a sold chance he'll go all four rounds.
Kevin Sutherland: He's been a little hit-or-miss at the FBR Open, but when he plays all four rounds, healthy scores go up -- he's finished fourth, 19th, ninth and eighth this decade. Sutherland hit the ball well for four days at the Bob Hope Chrysler Classic last week before a step-back on Sunday, but I saw enough to put him on the squad this week.
Other A-List Options: Anthony Kim is dealing with the sore shoulder (remember he withdrew last week), and he's got an ordinary record here (30, MC), so we'll play the waiting game with AK. ... Initially this looked like a course that would suit Geoff Ogilvy's skill set, but he's had ordinary results in Scottsdale (MC, MC, 20, 27, MC, MC, 40). There will be plenty of appetizing stops later in the year to dial him up. ... Big hitters get a leg up at the FBR Open, and as much as I like Mike Weir's game, he's not the mad bomber off the tee (119th in driving distance last year, 92nd the year before). He grabbed some heavy checks at this event in the middle of the decade, but it's been a little dry of late (43, 32, MC, 61). ... Ryuji Imada finished 14th at the FBR Open two years back, and he's been a favorite in this space for a couple of years, but I worry a little about fatigue catching up to him; he's playing for the fourth straight week (and he's yet to miss a cut). It's not that I'm telling you to run from him, but eventually this sort of schedule will take a toll on anyone, and given that we have a limited start-count in this format, I'm going to save Imada for another week. ... I'll sign off on Camilo Villegas if you want to select him; he's got the long-ball driver and smooth putter needed to win here, and he just missed back in 2006 -- settling for second. ... Justin Leonard has a pair of seconds here and two top 10s this decade, if you wanted to know. ... I fully believe in the Ben Curtis emergence we saw last summer, but his modest driving distance, and ordinary track record at the FBR Open steers me away (65, 62, 20, MC). ... Stewart Cink has struggled the last two times at this track (69, MC), after a nifty run of three top 20s in a row. He's not my primary play in the A-Group, but you'll normally get a four-round showing from the steady pro.
B-List Selections
J.B. Holmes (Round 1 Starter): It's a course that suits the long-ball, and who better than Holmes to take advantage; he's only won this event in two of the last three years. There's no reason to go deep into the analysis vault when you have something so obvious staring you in the face.
Steve Marino (Round 1 Starter): His first stop here was a respectable 34th , and he hasn't taken many bad swings through two solid tournaments this year (T7 at the Sony Open in Hawaii, T25 at the Bob Hope Classic). He is going to win this year (the flaw-free stat line inspires a lot of fantasy confidence), and we're going to take an aggressive approach trying to time that victory. I'm confident Marino lands in the top 20 again this week, and a Sunday to remember would not surprise me at all.
Stuart Appleby: He's got a history of playing well right out of the chute, and he grabbed a fourth-place check at the FBR Open party last year. Appleby comes to the track with a heavy driver and a rested body and mind; I'm happy to put all that into play right away.
David Toms: He continues to flash his mid-decade form, and this is a tournament he knows well. Prior to last year's missed-cut, Toms had nine straight checks cashed at the FBR Open, including six top 20s in a row. I gotta keep riding with the confident veteran while he's locked in like this.
Other B-List Options: Steve Stricker is a heck of a player and a heck of a nice guy, easy to root for, but after Sunday's slump at the Bob Hope Classic, I think we need to give him a week or two to get back in form. ... It's a tall order to win back-to-back on today's talent-loaded circuit, and Pat Perez hasn't been altogether comfortable at the Scottsdale layout (43rd last year, preceded by six cuts). Tip your cap to the first-time winner, but let's not call for a repeat. ... Sean O'Hair has a game that should do well here, but he's never done better than last year's tie for 50th. I'm still using him on my hometown fivesome, but for the PGA TOUR game, we need to stick with more established Arizona vets. ... Aaron Baddeley won here in 2007, but otherwise it's been a house of horrors: Four missed cuts wrapped around a tie for 49th. You know he always has a shot when that angelic putter of his gets rolling, but I'm not going to roster him in Week 4. ... Stephen Ames is a risk-reward play; I love how he was striking the ball at the end of last weekend, and he's had his share of success at the FBR Open if you look back a few years, but he also slammed the trunk early in 2007 and 2008. ... Hunter Mahan continues to be a bit of a fantasy tease; all that talent, but at times there's an issue putting it together. He ran ninth here three seasons back but hasn't contended since. ... Brian Gay has improved his standing at the FBR Open in four straight seasons, reaching a tie for 17th last year. He's certainly worth consideration again here. ... Ken Duke is one of the steadiest guys on the circuit, but he's yet to see the weekend in two Scottsdale starts. ... Brandt Snedeker's stat profile doesn't fit this event per se (driving distance is not his strong suit), but the cagey young pro has nonetheless run 23rd and ninth in his two starts at the FBR Open, and he's got no obvious weakness in the rest of his game.
C-List Selections
Charles Howell (Round 1 Starter): Here's another player with a track record of playing well early in the season, and he's made seven straight cuts at the FBR Open -- respectable finishes every time (25, 23, 40, 40, 24, 18, 28). We can't call him Charles in Charge at TPC Scottsdale until he cracks the top 10, but remember he grabbed a fourth-place check in his only start of 2009; perhaps this is the next great breakthrough story on the PGA TOUR. The talent has never been in question.
Webb Simpson: Rookies aren't supposed to become reliable fantasy plays almost overnight, but Simpson is quickly making it clear that he's no ordinary freshman. He's been in the 60s in eight of his nine rounds this year en route to a pair of top 10s; his long driver is going to play very nicely here, and he's shown plenty of skills and smarts elsewhere on the course. The fans in Scottsdale are going to love pulling for this kid, and this story.
Other C-List Options: Luke Donald is a heck of a talent and never easy to pass over, but he's missed two straight cuts at the FBR Open, and his game is better suited for a shot-makers course. ... Scott Verplank didn't play the weekend in Scottsdale last year, but his record prior to that is outstanding (2, 19, 7, 32, 22, 4, 75, 33, 14, 21). If not for the sizzling Simpson, I'd be using Verplank this week, and I suspect a lot of PGA TOUR nation will go with the veteran as well. ... Ryan Palmer finished second here three years ago but hasn't returned since. He was on my sleeper list entering the year, and I'm not backing off that now. ... Arron Oberholser just needs a full season of health to be a legitimate star on TOUR; he's that talented. Injuries have kept him away from the FBR Open too many times, but he did finish 10th here in 2006. ... Charlie Wi is another player with a wonderfully-balanced stat profile -- longer than you think and crafty all around the course. He's shown he can handle TPC Scottsdale, finishing 13th and 32nd in his two stops, and his versatile game makes him a viable play on just about any course.
Last Week: The selections weren't bad last week -- seven of my eight picks made the cut, including four cashes in the top 25 (T9, T9, 19, 25), but the timing was horrendous. With seven of my eight golfers, I left their best round of the week on my bench. Maybe I need to do less lineup jockeying this time around and only adjust around the cut, or maybe it's a case of sit the hot players and start the cold guys mid-tournament. We'll keep working on it. The step back has me in the 72nd percentile through three weeks, a number that cannot and will not be acceptable in this space. But there's plenty of time to get that placement pushed forward.
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