Fantasy Insider: (Tiger's) AT&T National
By Scott Pianowski, The Fantasy Insider
Tiger's not in the field, but there's still plenty to be excited about this week -- a strong field and a grand old course. Players are looking to fine tune their games with the British Open not far away, and we'll look to match that effort with a sharp week of handicapping. Let's get to the racing form.
PGATOUR.com Pick 'em
You know the rules - one player in each of the six groups and a wild card selection. Jim Furyk over Kenny Perry was a misstep last week, though this column has been ahead of the curve on Perry most of the year (he's carrying the flag proudly in my hometown auction league).
Group 1 Pick: Robert Allenby
Other Options: K.J. Choi, Trevor Immelman, Anthony Kim, Ryuji Imada
It's not easy to go away from Choi -- he's the defending champ, a super iron player, and a crafty scrambler. But his game hasn't been right since the S.K. Telecom Open win in South Korea two months ago, and defending is a tough job, so we'll keep him off the sheet.
Imada wasn't in the hunt last year, but he did finish fifth at the Booz Allen Classic (at Congressional Country Club) in 2005. Kim's got the skills to win anywhere, and he had three strong rounds here last summer before a 73 on Sunday. Immelman is always a formidable contender, but his putting has been spotty since the Masters win, and this is his first look at Congressional.
I've buried the lede because there's a lot to like about Allenby, the cool Aussie who's in the middle of a great year that's under the radar (15 straight cuts made, five top 10s, ten top 20s). His can't-miss irons (third in GIR) will serve him well here, and he's fared well in recent Congressional visits (sixth last year, tied for 13th in 2005). I couldn't feel any better about this pick.
Group 2 Pick: Bart Bryant
Other Options: Steve Stricker, Jeff Quinney, J.B. Holmes, D.J. Trahan
Bryant has the type of consistency a fantasy player loves -- just two missed cuts all year, fifth in driving accuracy, 27th in GIR. His putting has been good -- not great -- this season, but it's certainly not a weakness by any means. Get him in there.
Stricker is the name player here, and he finished second at the inaugural AT&T National last season, but where's his game right now? How quickly can he get his confidence back? I need to see a show-of-faith tournament first.
I'm generally reluctant to play home-run hitters on a course with a healthy rough, so I'll steer away from Holmes. Trahan has the ball-striking profile for Congressional, but scrambling (130th) could be a concern. Quinney would be my second choice in this pool -- he's not the longest guy off the tee, but he's got every other shot in the bag. He tied for 12th at this event last year.
Group 3 Pick: Jim Furyk
Other Options: Sean O'Hair, Steve Lowery, Andres Romero
Furyk didn't fire for us last week in Michigan, but it's hard to look past him at Congressional -- he tied for third here last year, and he ran fifth when the U.S. Open visited in 1997. Furyk's ball striking isn't far off, he just needs to get his putter going again.
O'Hair was sizzling in the spring, but he's been off his game of late (three missed cuts out of five, and nothing inside the top 20). He did play four solid rounds here last year, finishing tied for 25th. Lowery missed the cut here last year, and he's been too inconsistent in 2008 for my liking -- even with the win at Pebble Beach; he's only had three strong showings overall. Romero doesn't have the stat profile I'm looking for at this course -- he's a bomber who misses a bunch of fairways, and the rough at Congressional is a cruel tax collector. Keep Daniel Chopra off your ticket; he withdrew from the tournament Monday.
Group 4 Pick: Stuart Appleby
Other Options: Rod Pampling, Hunter Mahan, Brian Gay, Johnson Wagner
Appleby was in great shape to win here last season before a Sunday stumble, and he ran seventh at Congressional in 2005. Let's give him a shot to make amends; in my perfect world, he'd be paired with Allenby on Sunday.
I'm always scared to pick against Mahan, so I'll sign off on that direction if you prefer. He finished eighth at the AT&T National last year, he had his moments at the U.S. Open last month, and he was razor sharp at the Travelers Championship a week later.
Pampling looked to be back in form at the Buick Open, and his versatile stat profile is a fantasy player's dream. This gives you a sense of how deep this week's field is, when I'm semi-endorsing a guy who winds up third on my ballot.
Gay's a consistent driver and a heck of a putter, but his iron play hasn't been consistent enough (171st in GIR). Wagner's ordinary play around the greens (122nd in scrambling), and general lack of experience, keep him off my fantasy roster for this week.
Group 5 Pick: Ben Crane
Other Options: Aaron Baddeley, Brandt Snedeker, Mike Weir
I'm generally wrong on my Crane advice, so you have my permission to take this pick and put it in the shredder. That said, I can't ignore the facts: He ran second in his last Congressional stop (Booz Allen, 2005), he's a true driver and strong putter, and his play around the green is excellent (third in scrambling). Fear the turtle.
Granted, there are plenty of strong alternatives in this pool: Snedeker and Weir tied for eighth here last year, and Baddeley had three strong rounds before it all came unraveled with a 79 on Sunday. Weir's patience and consistency ultimately make him my second option in this group, after Crane. Keep Briny Baird off your roster for this week; he dropped out of the event.
Group 6 Pick: Pat Perez
Other Options: Ryan Moore, Camilo Villegas, Dudley Hart, Steve Marino
Perez finished third last year, and although he's not the best scrambler around, I can't find another weakness in his game. Confidence is an elusive thing, but if Perez gets off to a good start on Thursday, I see a four-round story.
Marino and Villegas both missed the cut here last season, while Moore tied for 25th. Hart's ball striking might not be consistent enough to grab a big check here, but he's always a sentimental favorite in this space.
Rest of the Field: Fred Couples is still one of the best ball-strikers around (21st in that stat), and he's crafty enough around the greens. Like so much of the field, it will come down to how quickly he gets comfortable on the greens. I'm feeling a top-25 check for Freddie ... Few roll the ball any better than John Rollins, and he came on like gangbusters last week in Michigan, so make sure he's on your sleeper list ... It would be fun to see Rocco Mediate contend again, and he's got a possible British Open berth on the mind, too. He's comfortable on the course, running eighth last year, and, when his back cooperates, there aren't many better ball strikers on the circuit ... Davis Love III's game is slowly rounding into form: he's grabbed four checks in a row, and he also grabbed a British Open spot through qualifying this week. Don't overlook what a confident DL3 can do on a tricky setup; he was second at the Booz Allen at Congressional in 2005 ... Steve Elkington generally gives you a good run -- 11 checks in 14 starts -- and tougher conditions won't faze this wily pro. A look under that stat umbrella endorses the selection -- 17th in driving accuracy, 14th in GIR, 37th in putting.
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