Fantasy Insider: Buick Open
By Scott Pianowski, The Fantasy Insider
Last week, they teed it up in my old stomping grounds -- New England -- and this week, they hit the links a short ride from where I currently reside, the suburban-Detroit area. No one in the field knows it, but they're once again playing for top-secret Pianowski Points this week. Do well in these events, and you'll probably find your way onto my fantasy auction roster for 2009.
The rough isn't too penal at Warwick Hills, so long hitters and birdie makers get a leg up to start. Nonetheless, the headliner to this week's TFI checks in just 161st on the driving-distance page.
PGATOUR.com Pick 'em
You know the rules - one player in each of the six groups and a wild card selection. We missed by taking Kenny Perry over winner Stewart Cink last week (albeit Perry played well as usual), but Hunter Mahan (second) and Heath Slocum (ninth) were useful picks.
Group 1 Pick: Jim Furyk
Other Options: Jeff Quinney, Justin Leonard, Kenny Perry
It's a tricky opener for us, as three guys have a Buick Open trophy on the mantle. Perry probably has the best fit to the course on paper -- he's far and away the longest hitter, he's seventh in birdie average and his 2008 play has been outstanding -- but I had a hard time looking away from Furyk's remarkable resume at Warwick Hills (second, 10th, first, sixth, second, fifth). It hasn't been Furyk's best season to date, but here's a vote for the comeback to start Thursday.
Quinney's going to be heard from this summer, and he's another red-number machine (eighth in birdie average), but he's only been to Warwick Hills once -- a 64th-place check last season. I wonder why Leonard doesn't come here more often; he came in second last year, his first visit since a 10th-place run in 2001. He hoisted the Buick Open hardware back in 1996, and he's recently added distance off the tee. Ryuji Imada is no longer in the field so keep him out of your plans this week.
Group 2 Pick: Brandt Snedeker
Other Options: Rod Pampling, Daniel Chopra, Steve Lowery, Johnson Wagner
Snedeker is another player primed for a big summer; he had just one bad round at the St. Jude Classic, then ran ninth at the U.S. Open. His Warwick Hills debut last year was a snappy 10th-place finish. He can make enough putts and enough birdies over this layout, and his occasional dalliances with the driver won't hurt him too much here.
I generally don't need much prompting to get Pampling on my fantasy roster, but this hasn't proven to be his ideal layout (cut, 70th, 66th, 39th, 54th). Lowery has made six of seven cuts at the Buick Open, but just one of those checks landed in the top 25. Wagner's debut at Warwick Hills was an ordinary tie for 64th last year. Chopra grabbed two big paydays here in the middle of the decade (12th, eighth), but he hasn't done much in the last two starts (cut, 49th).
Group 3 Pick: Heath Slocum
Other Options: Brian Gay, Briny Baird, Ben Crane
Slocum is in the middle of a nifty run, with 13 straight cashes including a fourth at the Travelers Championship and a ninth at the U.S. Open. He's got a curious resume at this tournament; while he's missed the cut in three of his last five stops, the two cashes were healthy ones (eighth, 14th). I wasn't going to pick Slocum over the long- hitting Steve Marino, but now that Marino is out of the field, let's give Slocum a long look.
Baird has some sleeper value in this spot, with three top-20 showings in his five most recent stops here (including a second in 2003). Gay nearly won this event earlier in the decade, but I have a hard time selecting him looking at his stat profile (185th in driving distance, 178th in GIR). Crane's two starts here were ordinary (cut, 43rd).
Group 4 Pick: Rocco Mediate
Other Options: Paul Goydos, Matthew Goggin
Mediate hasn't done a lot at the Buick Open since his win in 2000, but I can't look away from the story here. Let's pick him in part as a tip of the cap for the thrills he gave us two weeks ago at Torrey Pines, though it's also a logical choice in what's turned out to be a thin pool (Pat Perez and Ryan Moore dropped out this week).
I'm dying to pick Goggin for something, he's got the look of a player who's very close to winning, but his resume at Warwick Hills gets me off the case (cut, cut, 50th, cut, cut). Goydos has 11 checks in 13 stops at the Buick Open, but he was in contention just once over that span (sixth in 2003).
Group 5 Pick: Dudley Hart
Other Options: Peter Lonard, Cliff Kresge
Hart's got a funny resume at the Buick Open -- while he's missed the cut in eight of 15 starts, his hits over this track are heavy ones (fifth, fourth, sixth, 25th, 12th, 19th, 13th). Give Hart a good start Thursday, and this story has some legs.
Kresge is another good guy I'm always ready to select, but he's yet to see the weekend in three stops here. Lonard's Buick Open debut last year ended on Friday (missed cut). Keep Nicholas Thompson and Tommy Armour out of your plans, as they've withdrawn from the event.
Group 6 Pick: Woody Austin
Other Options: Charles Howell, Billy Mayfair, John Senden, Nathan Green
Austin won the event in 1995, and he's kept the mojo running in subsequent visits grabbing four more top 10s over the track (including a second last year and a seventh in 2006). We haven't seen vintage Austin so far in 2008, but here's another player who's very dangerous if he gets off to a decent start Thursday, especially given his history on the grounds.
Green's magical putter always gives you a shot, but keep in mind he also is 127th in driving distance and 186th in GIR. His first trip over the course turned into a tie for 50th last year. I'd love to see Howell have four good rounds -- he's on my hometown auction team -- but I've stopped trying to figure out when his big paydays are coming. He didn't make the Buick Open cut last year, and he was 38th in 2003.
Mayfair smiled with a Buick Open trophy back in 1998, but he's only been in contention once at the event since then. Senden's got a pair of solid checks over five starts here (22nd, 29th), but he's also slammed the trunk three times.
Rest of the Field: The Chris DiMarco comeback story is already under way, with four checks in five starts, and he knows what it takes to contend at Warwick Hills (two seconds this decade). Maybe it's 60 percent heart and 40 percent head, but I'll find a way to use the gritty Gator this week in my fantasy lineups. ... Nick O'Hern is making his Buick Open debut, and his game is better suited to a short and tight track -- not the friendly driving range of Warwick Hills -- but it's hard to ignore six decent checks in a row, with three paydays inside the Top 20. He's got the head and the patience to adapt, to figure out the course quickly. ... Lucas Glover has played well at Warwick Hills before (tied for 10th last year, 15th in 2006) and his game was rounding into form nicely at the Travelers last week, fashioning four strong rounds in a row. Look for a carryover this week. ... Dustin Johnson is long but somewhat erratic with the driver, but that's not going to be a problem with this setup. He's capable of putting up a bunch of red numbers, and the rookie should find the Michigan track to his liking. ... Bubba Watson deserves a mention as well -- he is first in driving distance, and he's thinking birdie (and eagle) on the juicy holes. It's a little surprising he's never been to Warwick Hills, because the layout should suit his game.
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