Fantasy Insider: John Deere Classic at TPC Deere Run

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Jul. 9, 2008
By Scott Pianowski, The Fantasy Insider

I've always wanted one of those riding mowers, but the modest patch of land we have at the homestead doesn't really justify the move. Just know that as you're taking the rider out for a spin, I'm filled with jealousy. Maybe it's time for me to score a John Deere hat.

Let's see what we can figure out in the Prairie State, aiming to make you the envy of your fantasy league. Birdies are plentiful over the TPC Deere Run track, which means we'll be looking for aggressive players who can paint the leaderboard red.

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You'll be hard-pressed to find someone who doesn't think Kenny Perry will be hot again this week.

PGATOUR.com Pick 'em

You know the rules - one player in each of the six groups and a wild card selection. We snagged a third last week with Robert Allenby, but we lost ground to anyone who had Anthony Kim in the same group.

Group 1 Pick: Kenny Perry
Other Options: Bart Bryant, Sean O'Hair, J.B. Holmes, D.J. Trahan

Here's a pick that takes all of five seconds. Perry's won twice in the last two months, he hasn't missed a cut since the Sony Open, and he's sixth in birdie average. He hadn't seen the TPC Deere Run layout until last year, but he acquitted himself nicely with a tie for 11th. I don't see how you can bench the hottest player in the world in this spot.

This is not to suggest that the others in this pool don't have credentials. Holmes is 10th in birdie average, Trahan is 14th, and O'Hair won this event in 2005. In other fantasy formats where Perry isn't an option, I can justify using anyone in that trio. Bryant is generally a strong play over any track, but he's yet to do a lot here (nothing better than 25th over five starts).

Group 2 Pick: Brian Gay
Other Options: Woody Austin, Chad Campbell, Steve Lowery, Johnson Wagner

Gay finally clicked over this track last year with a tie for 18th, and he's been posting plenty of red numbers this season (21st in birdies). It's always nice to have an ace putter on your side as well; Gay ranks fifth with the flat stick in 2008.

I'll generally look for any reason to pick Austin, but he's only contended once in his last 12 starts here, and he's buried in the birdie stats. Campbell might not know the layout well enough; he hasn't been here since 2002. Wagner missed the cut last year, and Lowery hasn't managed anything better than 27th over his last four visits.

Group 3 Pick: Heath Slocum
Other Options: Aaron Baddeley, Bubba Watson

Is this the week Slocum strings together four strong rounds? He's been a force on Thursdays and Fridays this year, ranking 11th in pre-cut scoring, but things haven't always fallen his way on the weekend. This is a good spot for the straight-driving Slocum to make a move -- he's finished sixth, third and 13th in his last three trips over the Deere Run course.

Baddeley missed the cut in his lone try at this event, and he hasn't broken 70 since the Verizon Heritage back in mid-April. Watson's capable of going on a birdie binge at any time, but it hasn't happened at Deere Run -- he's yet to make a cut in two starts here. Keep Tommy Armour III and Briny Baird off your ticket this week, as both players have dropped out of the event.

Pettersson

Group 4 Pick: Carl Pettersson
Other Options: Pat Perez, Steve Marino, Ben Crane

Pettersson was fifth at Deere Run last year and 15th in 2003, and he fits the profile we're looking for (11th in birdies). Like Slocum, he's been somewhat of an early-week wonder this season (12th in scoring before the cut), but I like how Pettersson fits the course, and, obviously, he's got some confidence on this track.

It's hard to find a resum� pick from the rest of the pool. Perez ran 12th at the John Deere Classic in 2003, but he hasn't done anything with three starts since (66, w/d, cut). Crane has three ordinary turns to offer (w/d, 32, cut), and Marino is making his debut here. Villegas withdrew from the event.

Group 5 Pick: Jerry Kelly
Other Options: Kevin Sutherland, Ryan Moore, Peter Lonard, Nicholas Thompson

The stat page isn't going to endorse Kelly, and he hasn't made a cut since his near-miss at the Memorial, but perhaps he'll be inspired by the home-region crowd. The Midwesterner hasn't made the John Deere Classic a regular stop of his, but he did finish eighth in 2002 and 12th in 2000. Sometimes it's OK to let the heart overrule the head in this fantasy pursuit.

The racing form would suggest Sutherland, off his tie for sixth last year and a ninth-place check in 2001. Lonard hasn't seen the course yet, while Thompson's lone start was a missed cut in 2006. Moore isn't a bad sleeper play, with a steady game off the tee (25th in total driving) and a reliable putter (15th). He ran 27th in his lone start at TPC Deere Run back in 2006.

Senden

Group 6 Pick: John Senden
Other Options: Dean Wilson, Matt Kuchar, John Merrick

Senden won here in 2006, and he's got an easy stat profile to get behind: He's 11th in ball striking, 39th in birdies and 12th in greens in regulation. Send it in.

Kuchar ranks 30th in scoring and 34th in birdies, but he needs to show he can get it done on a Sunday (he's 112th in final-round average). He knows his way around the course, finishing 13th in 2005.

Wilson's been here four times but hasn't gotten inside the top 35 yet, while Merrick is making his debut at TPC Deere Run. Keep Alex Cejka out of your plans for the week -- he dropped out.

Rest of the Field: Jonathan Byrd shouldn't get tripped up by the defender's curse -- he's never missed a cut in five stops here (win, 13, 64, 2, 26), and he's capable of making enough birdies. Use him if you can ... Tim Clark was last year's runner-up, and he's been in fine form of late, grabbing four straight checks including a second at the Crowne Plaza Invitational. His play at the AT&T National was better than it looked -- he had three excellent rounds after an opening 73 -- and I expect Clark to be heard from in this spot ... Nathan Green hasn't been sharp of late, but he did grab a third-place check at TPC Deere Run last year, and we know the guy can putt and post red numbers (18th in birdie average) ... Does Zach Johnson want to win this event too badly? He's on the board of directors at the tournament, but he's only made three cuts in six starts, with nothing better than 20th ... Cagey pro Billy Mayfair still has to be accounted for, especially over these grounds (tied for 11th last year, seventh in 2006). He's cashed a check in 11 of 13 starts at this event.