The Fantasy Insider: AT&T Classic

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Nationwide Tour graduate Nicholas Thompson is playing a home game this week at TPC Sugarloaf. Thompson, a graduate of Georgia Tech, has already secured his 2009 PGA TOUR card with over $1 million in earnings this year. (Getty Images)
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May. 13, 2008
By Scott Pianowski, The Fantasy Insider

Target golf with challenging greens, that's the order of the day at TPC Sugarloaf. It's a thinking-man's course, and a track where gargantuan length off the tee won't help you too much. Let's have a look at the trends and track records and see how sweet of a lineup we can assemble.

PGATOUR.com Pick 'em
AT&T Classic:
Round 1 Tee Times | Field

You need one player in each of the six groups, one wild card selection, and a hearty appetite for all that great southern food.

Group 1 Pick: Stewart Cink
Other Options: Ryuji Imada, Nicholas Thompson, D.J. Trahan

Cink is the unofficial favorite this week and it's not hard to see why. He's having the best year of any player who hasn't won a 2008 event, he lives a 3-iron away from the TPC Sugarloaf , and he's done well at this event in the past (nine checks in ten starts; six top-10s). Pick against him at your own risk; the Georgia Tech grad will be in contention on the weekend.

Imada's play around the greens serve him well at this track; he lost to Zach Johnson in a playoff last year, and he's been in the Top 15 for three years running. I can't pick Imada over Cink, but I'd opt for him in some other formats. He's another player with local ties, playing his college golf at the University of Georgia.

Thompson's lone start here was a missed cut, and Trahan hasn't seen the Top 40 in three turns. Steve Lowery withdrew on Monday, so keep him off your roster this week.

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South Carolina native Jonathan Byrd's game is well-suited to TPC Sugarloaf. (Getty Images)

Group 2 Pick: Steve Elkington
Other Options: Paul Goydos, Brian Gay, Kevin Sutherland

Elkington's in the midst of a nifty comeback year, and he's always negotiated his way around this track very well (seven checks in eight starts), so he gets the call. His ordinary length off the tee shouldn't be a big factor at TPC Sugarloaf, and he's strong in so many other key areas (accurate off tee, hitting plenty of greens, putting).

If Goydos had any sort of track record here, I'd pick him for the fun of it (thanks for the PLAYERS memories, big guy). Alas, he's missed five cuts in his last seven stops at the event, and he hasn't seen a significant check here since 1994. I'll still root for Goydos, but he's not my pick from this pool.

Gay has made a couple of deep runs here but I don't like where his iron game has been this season. Sutherland's seen the weekend just once in his last four visits. Steve Marino was also in this pool, but he dropped out of the event earlier in the week.

Group 3 Pick: Ben Crane
Other Options: Briny Baird, Kenny Perry

I'm surprised Crane hasn't been a regular participant here, because he won the event in 2003 and came in sixth a year later. He's in fine form right now (sixth at the TPC), so let's get him in those AT&T Classic lineups wherever possible.

Baird's game has also come around nicely the last two months; he's made six cuts in a row, with five of the checks landing in the Top 20. A fourth-place finish at the TPC certainly gets your attention, and he's cashed six straight times over these grounds (9, 10, 20, 19. 63. 68). You know he's going to hit plenty of greens (11th in GIR), but can he drop enough putts? He's just 131st with the flat stick this season.

Perry has been a cut-making machine this year, but I wonder if his messy final round at Sawgrass will carry over to this event. He's also missed the cut in 3-of-4 starters at the AT&T Classic. Hunter Mahan and Pat Perez are no longer in the field, so keep them off the sheet.

Group 4 Pick: Retief Goosen
Other Options: Charles Howell, John Mallinger, Troy Matteson

We've seen flashed of the old Goosen over the last few weeks, and he's had plenty of career success in the state of Georgia. Looking specifically at the AT&T Classic, we see a win, a third, and a fourth during the decade. I'm sold. Dial up the South African.

Matteson's game has been off for a while, with six missed cuts already in 2008. He did play four rounds at Sawgrass last week, but he wasn't able to break 80 on the weekend.

Howell ran sixth here in 2001 but he's returned just twice, missing the cut each time. Mallinger is making his Sugarloaf debut. Kevin Na dropped out Monday, so keep him on the bench.

Group 5 Pick: Jonathan Byrd
Other Options: Steve Flesch, Matt Kuchar, Heath Slocum, Charles Warren

The greens at TPC Sugarloaf are going to challenge you, and that's just fine with Byrd, one of the best rollers on Tour. He finished ninth here last year, and sixth in 2006.

Flesch also has a nice resume at the AT&T, with five checks inside the Top 20. He didn't get comfortable at THE PLAYERS last week, but he played very well over the four previous starts, and his outstanding sand game will serve him well at Sugarloaf.

Slocum hasn't been able to get comfortable here, missing five cuts in six starts. Warren has a consistent resume at Sugarloaf (30, 24, 10, 60), making him a nice sleeper play. Kuchar finally figured out this track last season, making a nifty third-place run.

Group 6 Pick: Zach Johnson
Other Options: Shane Bertsch, Dustin Johnson, Corey Pavin, Dean Wilson

There's no great debate needed in this pool -- Zach Johnson has two wins and a second at Sugarloaf, and he's another player who does his best work in Georgia. Don't get cute here -- take the low-hanging fruit on Peachtree Street.

Bertsch is a heck of a story, putting a nice 2008 run together pretty much out of nowhere. He's 36th in driving accuracy and 16th in putting, and he finished seventh here in 2006, so get him on the sleeper list.

Pavin hasn't done much at this event since a seventh-place check in 1006. Wilson was in contention back in 2005 (15th), but he slipped to 77th a year later. Dustin Johnson is making his debut here.

Rest of the Field: Camilo Villegas has been in a slump for much of the year, but maybe a trip down South will perk him up. He finished third last season . . . Scott McCarron won the event in 1997 and 2001, but maybe that's too long ago to consider. He's broken 70 just once since February . . . Lucas Glover needs to rebuild his confidence if he's going to be a factor this week. He closed Wachovia with an 80, then struggled at THE PLAYERS last week (80-79). He did run 10th here in 2005 . . . David Toms still has a straight driver and a steady putter, and that gives you a chance here. He's made 11-of-14 cuts at the event, with eight straight in the Top 30 . . . Kevin Stadler deserves a mention off two nifty results (25th at Wachovia, 15th at TPC Sawgrass). He's got two ordinary starts here but a confident player is a dangerous one.

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