The Fantasy Insider: Shell Houston Open
By Scott Pianowski, The Fantasy Insider
PGATOUR.COM Fantasy: It's never too late to play
This has always been one of my favorite stops, in part because so many of my favorite players have done well here. Who can forget the emotional Fred Couples win in 2003, for starters? And if you don't like Stuart Appleby (1999 and 2006 champ), you don't like ice cream.
The touring pros seem to like the event as well -- witness the strong field the Shell Houston Open has drawn even with The Masters looming. Let's swing into spring and make sure there are no fantasy problems in Houston this week.
PGATOUR.com Pick 'em
You need one player in each of the six groups and a wild card selection. Last week's highlights included picking Daniel Chopra over Steve Stricker in the top group, while Woody Austin proved to be a solid play in the final pool, no matter how his tournament ended. (If only we could collect some bonus points for the stand-up way he faced the media afterwards; a hearty doff of the cap for that, Woody. Your candidness couldn't be more refreshing and appreciated.)
Group 1 Pick: Steve Stricker
Other Options: Phil Mickelson, K.J. Choi, Geoff Ogilvy, Justin Leonard
Stricker has a ninth and a third in his last two starts on this course, so let's welcome him back to the fold, expecting him to make amends after last week's missed cut. Stricker's putting hasn't been up to previous standards in 2008, but perhaps a run around the Redstone Golf Club will help cure that.
Choi is always a solid pick, any course, any format, and he's contended in Houston of late (19th last year, sixth in 2006, 11th in 2004). Leonard's done well in his home state, cashing in 8-of-10 visits including a pair of Top 10s. Ogilvy can point to a 10th-place finish in 2004 and a 7th place check in 2003, and obviously his game has come around nicely over the last month or so.
Mickelson is the only player from this pool without a Houston track record to fall back on; he hasn't been here since 2003, and he's never cracked the Top 25 in three starts. It's not often that you can scratch him off the roto sheet quickly, but in this killer group, we've got no choice.
Group 2 Pick: Stuart Appleby
Other Options: Bart Bryant, Steve Marino, Peter Lonard, Andres Romero
Here's the easiest ticket punch of the week. Appleby has two wins and two seconds on his Houston Shell resume, and he's had the putter working for most of 2008. Get him onto your lineup, no matter what game you're playing.
Bryant, Marino and Lonard all missed the cut here in 2007, though Lonard isn't a bad option off last week's near-miss. Romero makes his Houston debut this week.
Group 3 Pick: Padraig Harrington
Other Options: Robert Allenby, Jeff Quinney, Steve Elkington
Australians have traditionally done very well at this event, but surprisingly Allenby and Elkington haven't been in that mix lately. Elkington, now a Houston native, used to roll here, but he's made just one check in his last eight starts. Allenby hoisted the hardware in 2000, but he followed it up with three lukewarm showings (62, 34, 49), and he hasn't been at the event since 2004.
With that, I default to Harrington, who's got two years of Redstone experience to draw on (24th last year, 32nd in 2006). Quinney is making his debut, so it's hard to say what to expect. Brian Gay dropped out of the event Monday.
Group 4 Pick: Hunter Mahan
Other Options: John Mallinger, Troy Matteson, Nathan Green, Nicholas Thompson
Mahan's game came together nicely at Arnie's place three weeks ago, then he took a step back at the World Golf Championships-CA Championship the following week. No worries, we'll take the plunge again as he steps back onto a course he likes; he's finished fifth and eleventh here over the last two seasons. His putter might not be consistent enough to win here, but in this group he's the clear favorite.
Thompson, Green and Matteson all missed the cut in their last Houston start. Mallinger's debut here was a respectable tie for 36th last year and he's one of the best putters around, which makes him a strong option if you prefer not to use Mahan from this pool.
Group 5 Pick: Kevin Sutherland
Other Options: Chad Campbell, George McNeill, Ben Crane, John Merrick
The steady Sutherland has been decent at this stop, grabbing checks in 10-of-12 starts, including three Top-10 finishes. He's quietly having a solid 2008, making the cut in seven of eight events.
Campbell's recent record in Houston is respectable (MC, 21, 31), albeit it's an event he ordinarily skips and I don't always trust him on the greens. McNeill hasn't broken 70 since the PODS Championship, and Crane hasn't been able to get inside the Top 30 in three starts here, so I can't use either over Sutherland. Merrick has been a pleasant surprise over the last five weeks, but his Houston debut last year was forgettable (72-73-74-76), and he's had some trouble closing events.
Group 6 Pick: Dudley Hart
Other Options: Kevin Na, Charles Warren, Matt Jones, Tim Wilkinson
Hart's been a hit-or-miss play in 2008, but when he finds his early rhythm, watch out -- he's been inside the Top 15 in three of his last five stars, and he's finished fourth at Houston a couple of times. It's an easy story to get behind, too; Hart was limited to 12 events last year as he helped his wife battle lung cancer, but he's come back strong in 2008. Nicely played, sir.
Warren was in a six-week slump before last week's rally in New Orleans; it will be interesting to see if that carries over to Houston. He didn't content at this event last year, but he was respectable in 2006 (21st) and 2005 (13th). Na's best form hasn't come out here but his creative short game and solid putting gives him a shot. Jones and Wilkinson are making their first stars over the Redstone layout.
Rest of the Field: Adam Scott won here last year and I can't recall the last time I saw him play poorly. He's probably not the ideal play when we hit Augusta next week (where he's surprisingly been a non-factor), but he's got as good a chance as anyone to win in Houston . . . Aaron Baddeley's track record in Houston isn't much (36, 65, WD), but you never count out someone who's as talented on the greens as he is . . . Fred Couples hasn't missed the cut here since 1981, if you wanted to know -- that's fourteen straight checks. Get the local favorite on your radar as a sleeper pick . . . Trevor Immelman has two solid checks in two Houston appearances (17, 11), the latter one coming on the current course. Keep his name in mind as a sleeper in some of the majors . . . Davis Love hasn't played the tournament since 1992, and he's struggling to find his form in 2008 (three missed cuts over his last five starts) . . . I don't know where Lucas Glover's best game is right now, but other than one round at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, we haven't seen it. I'd like one strong full-week performance before I put him back in my inner fantasy circle.
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