The Fantasy Insider: EDS Byron Nelson Championship
By Scott Pianowski, The Fantasy Insider
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The TPC Four Seasons Resort Las Colinas has undergone a facelift, so handicapping becomes harder than normal as we try to figure out the EDS Byron Nelson Championship. Given the uncertainty before us, let's stick with the basics -- consistent ball striking, fairways and greens, the sort of game that puts you in good position anywhere. That's our underlying theme as we fill out this week's dance card.
PGATOUR.com Pick 'em
You need one player in each of the six groups, one wild card selection, a little luck, and some putts to drop on Sunday.
Group 1 Pick: Sean O'Hair
Other Options: Trevor Immelman, Ryuji Imada, Justin Leonard
It's not easy to pick against Immelman, given that he's just off the Green Jacket, and he came in second here in 2006. But O'Hair has three strong finishes at the EDS Byron Nelson Championship as well (25, 19, 2), and I want at least one Texas player this week if at all possible.
Why no Leonard love, then? He hasn't done enough in his recent visits -- while he's cashed 13 times in 14 trips, he hasn't cracked the Top 25 in his last four turns.
The steady Imada is always a respectable play -- he finished ninth last season, and he's never been outside of the Top 35. When his putter gets going -- Imada is one of the best around with the flat stick -- he's got a chance to go real low.
Boo Weekley is no longer in the field, so make sure you keep him out of your lineup for this week.
Group 2 Pick: Rory Sabbatini
Other Options: Luke Donald, Chad Campbell, Daniel Chopra, Johnson Wagner
Donald will get the most play from this bracket, given how well he's done at the event (2, 6, 18, 14, 19 the last five years). A shorter but trickier track, that plays right into Donald's game.
But there's plenty to like about Sabbatini -- he finished third at the EDS Byron Nelson Championship last year, and he's missed just one cut this season. From a stat perspective, I don't see a weakness to his game (ignore the current sand-save number -- he's always been a strong bunker player). I'm always a fan of the quick, decisive player, and with that, here's a quick and decisive pick for the South African.
Campbell's another Texan in the field, and this is clearly one of his favorite stops (six straight checks, including a 13th last year and a fifth in 2006).
I'm not sure where Chopra's game is right now; he's done next to nothing since the win at the Mercedes (four missed cuts, nothing inside the Top 30). Wagner's season is similar, a notable win but not much else going on.
Group 3 Pick: Steve Marino
Other Options: Jeff Quinney, Anthony Kim, Steve Elkington, Bart Bryant
Sign me up for the Marino bandwagon; there's plenty to be impressed about with the second-year pro. A long and straight driver, reliable irons, solid putting, it's only a matter of time before he bags a victory. He finished 10th in his EDS Byron Nelson Championship debut last year.
Elkington's comeback year has been fun to watch, and he's comfortable at this event, with six straight cashes (including a 10th and a 14th). Bryant's profile seems to fit what works here, but that hasn't been the case over six starts (three missed cuts, no Top 20s). Quinney (cut) and Kim (51st) didn't show much in their lone stops here.
Group 4 Pick: John Senden
Other Options: Kevin Sutherland, Nathan Green, Brian Gay, Cliff Kresge
No one in this pool has a fantastic track record here, so it's more of a gut-feel pick with Senden. I'm always a sucker for consistent types who wear out the fairways and greens, and that's Senden's game. He's yet to go deep at the EDS Byron Nelson Championship, but he has cashed in four of his last five stops.
Sutherland offers five straight checks here, but he's yet to crack the Top 25. Senden, for my money, offers better upside. Green's having a super putting year, but I don't like where he's at in the ball-striking stats.
I was tempted to go with Kresge off his fine play last week, but his history here scared me off (62, cut, cut, cut). Gay is another player who's struggled at this event, missing four cuts in five starts, though he did come in 19th two years back.
Group 5 Pick: Billy Mayfair
Other Options: Mark Calcavecchia, Pat Perez, Troy Matteson, John Mallinger
Another feel pick because the form doesn't tell us much. Calc has five trunk slams in six starts here, Perez hasn't cracked the Top 60 in five turns, Mallinger missed the cut in his debut last year, and Matteson has one good start at the EDS Byron Nelson Championship (29th), and one bad one (cut) . So we look back to the old reliable vet, Mayfair, who generally plays four days here (seven checks in eight turns, albeit nothing too hefty).
Group 6 Pick: Ben Crane
Other Options: Kenny Perry, Kevin Na, Hunter Mahan, Nicholas Thompson
You can call Crane methodical, deliberate -- okay, maybe even slow -- but there's no escaping that he's consistent. He's yet to miss a cut this year, and he's got four decent showings in five EDS Byron Nelson Championship appearances, including a second-place run five starts back. Let's see how he meshes with Sabbatini on my fantasy team; fear the turtle.
Mahan's overdue for a strong showing, but he hasn't done anything in four starts here (cut, 67, 70, cut). Perry's got three checks in four starts at this event but he didn't really contend. Na didn't stop here the last two years after missing the cut in 2005, and Thompson's lone visit ended on Friday.
Rest of the Field: If Sergio Garcia can just get out of his own way a bit, he can win anywhere. He's worked a bunch on his putting, but really, it's the inner confidence that needs to come around if he's going to be a factor. I think he's ready for a Top-15 finish ... Adam Scott is so hard to look past, and he grabbed a big check two years back at the EDS Byron Nelson Championship (third). Assuming he's over the sore throat that hampered him at the Masters, you have to figure he'll be heard from ... Scott Verplank isn't having his best season, but he is the defending champ, and this event has tons of extra importance to him, given his relationship with Nelson. Verplank's post-tournament interview last year was one of the highlights of the season, and I expect him to will his way into contention this week ... Carl Pettersson was eighth at this event just four turns back, and he's got the sort of game that should translate to this week's test ... Ian Poulter ran third here last season, but can he get things going off the tee? He's currently 201st in total driving, which steers me away ... J.J. Henry and Harrison Frazar helped D.A. Weibring with the course re-design, so get them on your sleeper list on that reason alone.
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