The Fantasy Insider: Arnold Palmer Invitational

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Hitch up those slacks and mix some iced tea with lemonade; it's time to pay homage to The King. And what better way than on a fabulous course with a strong field -- welcome back, Tiger, Phil, Vijay, Sergio.

PGATOUR.com Pick 'em
You need one player in each of the six groups and a wild card selection. Picking Ernie Els over Stewart Cink wound up being the notable regret of Week 10, but I feel confident we'll have a heavy point haul with this week's army.

Condon/PGA TOUR

Tiger Woods has four wins at Bay Hill.

Inside the Numbers

Tiger Woods at Bay Hill

Year Finish 2007 T22 2006 T20 2005 T23 2004 T46 2003 1 2002 1 2001 1 2000 1 1999 T56 1998 T13 1997 T9 1994 CUT

Group 1 Pick: Tiger Woods
Other Options: Phil Mickelson, Ryuji Imada, J.B. Holmes, Daniel Chopra

Arnold Palmer was famous for taking chances, so let's start off this week's tip sheet with -- a very conservative play. Sorry, just can't pick against Tiger on a course where he's won four times, no matter than he hasn't cracked the top 20 since. He's playing too well right now, and you lose too much ground to the pack if you stray here.

I'm surprised Mickelson has skipped Bay Hill so often in recent years; he won in 1997 and he had near misses in 2002 (second) and 2003 (third), but then he took three years off. His return to the grounds last year resulted in a 36th-place check.

Imada missed the cut here last year, but he's impressed me greatly with his shot-making this season. Holmes (77, 48) and Chopra (cut, 59) have yet to do anything of note at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

Group 2 Pick: Vijay Singh
Other Options: Luke Donald, Sean O'Hair, D.J. Trahan, Steve Lowery

Bay Hill is a course where tee-to-green play generally trumps putting, and what better setup for Singh? His resume at Arnie's place jumps off the sheet: the win last year, three seconds, a fourth, 11 top-20s and 15 consecutive cuts made. Get risky with the rest of your picks if you like, but this isn't the spot for a hunch play.

The sentimental play might be O'Hair, the young star, Florida native, and off last week's win. He ran 14th at Bay Hill last year. Donald missed the cut in his first two Bay Hill starts before an eighth-place finish in 2007. Trahan has one start over the course (36th last year). Lowery's history at Bay Hill is hit-or-miss; he's missed seven cuts over two decades of play here, but he's also come in the top 20 four times.

Group 3 Pick: Stuart Appleby
Other Options: Jeff Quinney, Troy Matteson, Steve Marino, Brian Gay

Appleby's having a strong year after a mildly-disappointing 2007, and he's had a couple of runs here (second in 1997, second in 2004). He's yet to grab a check under six figures in five starts this year, so for the third consecutive pool, we'll opt for the chalk.

It's not easy to find an angle for the other plays on this card. Quinney, Matteson and Marino all made the cut in their Arnold Palmer Invitational debut last year, but none of them cracked the top 60. Gay has more experience over the track (five checks in seven starts), but none of his finishes landed inside the top 25. At the end of the day, Matteson looks like the best choice from the quad, off a strong second-place run at the PODS Championship last week.

Group 4 Pick: Kenny Perry
Other Options: Stephen Ames, Boo Weekley, John Senden, Nathan Green

Perry is another outstanding tee-to-green player, and he's been successful here (win in 2005, second in 2003, 10 checks in 12 starts). He's made six straight cuts this season, and if Perry can get his swing tuned just a little bit more on Sunday, he's got a shot to make the top 10 here.

Ames also seems to fit the layout and he's been a factor at Arnie's place many times (eight consecutive cuts made, four top-10s). Senden made a splash with his 67 to close last week, but Bay Hill hasn't been that friendly to him (cut, 50, cut).

Weekley finished 14th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational in 2007, but his game hasn't looked right since the 80 on the final day of the Honda Classic. Green's two starts here (cut, 70) haven't been notable.

Group 5 Pick: Jerry Kelly
Other Options: Brandt Snedeker, John Mallinger, Steve Elkington, Ben Crane

Kelly goes against the theme of player we're using this week -- the strength of his game has always been putting -- but it's hard to ignore how he's run at Bay Hill in recent years. He missed the cut in his first five stops at the tournament but rather than give up he stepped it up; Kelly's cashed five solid checks in his last six stops here, including a fifth, a ninth and a 15th. He's clearly learned how to navigate the track and that's enough to get the checkmark.

This hasn't been Elkington's best event (four missed cuts in six starts, nothing better than 24th), and Crane hasn't been on the ground since 2004. Snedeker (22) and Mallinger (70) both made their Arnold Palmer Invitational debuts last year.

Group 6 Pick: Chad Campbell
Other Options: Kevin Na, George McNeill, Dustin Johnson, Matt Jones

If there's a reason to not use Campbell here, it's slipped past me. He won the tournament in 2004 and he's made six decent checks in a row at this spot. A horse for the course, Campbell can play tee-to-green as well as anyone when he's in a groove.

And then there's the rest of the pool, lacking in course experience. Na hasn't seen the weekend in two starts here, and McNeill, Johnson and Jones are making their Bay Hill debuts this week.

Rest of the Field: Jim Furyk returns to Bay Hill for just the second time this decade. He probably can remember what works well enough; he's made five straight cuts here, including an eighth-place run in 1998 . . . Rod Pampling won at Arnie's place in 2006 and his game has been in fine form over the last few weeks . . . Geoff Ogilvy's game seems to be back after a slow start, and his last three visits to the Arnold Palmer Invitational have gone well enough (14, 26, 36). The buy-low window on this star may have closed for good . . . Sergio Garcia has five top-10 finishes here over the last seven years, so put him on your short list of favorites . . . This hasn't been a yearly stop for Fred Couples, but he did win the event in the 1990s and he ran eighth at recently as 2005. And as this season has shown us, he's still a heck of a ball striker . . . Zach Johnson has never missed the weekend in four starts here (42, 43, 8, 6), and he's always a threat to win in this part of the country . . . Lee Westwood makes this trip semi-regularly and why not, with eight solid checks in nine starts (fifth in 2006) . . . I like the way Bart Bryant is swinging right now and he's been 20th or better in all three of his Bay Hill stops.