The Fantasy Insider: Waialae
By Scott Pianowski, The Fantasy Insider
Things I learned last week, from the Mercedes-Benz Championships and elsewhere:
A four-hole playoff sure beats six hours of boring football, even if Daniel Chopra and Steve Stricker were mostly making pars in overtime . . . It's best not to travel with bullets in your suitcase . . . If you want to make it to the Masters, have your caddy wear an Augusta-themed lid while he totes the bag around . . . Why shovel the snow when it's just going to melt in a week anyway? . . . I guess I'm to have to root for Stricker all year because I was charmed by his adorable family.
We didn't have Chopra or Stricker promoted in this space last week, but otherwise I feel good about the advice parceled out. And don't worry, I've been in the lab from the moment Chopra lifted his trophy, trying to get us the jump on the second event of the year. Here's a peek inside the notebook.
PGATOUR.com Pick 'em
You need one player in each of the six groups, and every week I'll be opening my books and spelling out the logic behind my selections. When the Salary Cap Cup Game opens in two weeks at the Buick Invitational, we'll tackle those angles as well.
Group 1 Pick: Jim Furyk
Other options: Vijay Singh, K.J. Choi, Rory Sabbatini, Steve Stricker
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Kapalua Resort plays like a driving range at times -- bomb it anywhere you like, attack. This week's layout at Waialae Country Club is more confining, playing right into the hands of a steady ball striker like Furyk. He's made 11-of-12 cuts here, with five top-10s and a win in 1996, and his game was in decent form last week. The home-field advantage doesn't hurt the cause, either.
Don't fret if Furyk isn't your speed -- you've got lots of options in this loaded bracket. Singh has 11 consecutive checks here, including a win in 2005 and a sixth in 2006. The underrated Choi has made five cuts in a row, two of them in the top 10. Stricker likes the layout too, with seven checks in eight starts, including three finishes inside the top seven, and obviously he's been playing superbly over the last few months.
The only name that's easy to eliminate is Sabbatini -- while he did finish tied for second in 2006, that's the only time in nine starts he's cracked the top 25 here. An emotional player if there ever was one, I wonder if the self-imposed silence Sabbatini is taking might wind up affecting his play.
Group 2 Pick: Aaron Baddeley
Other options: Stephen Ames, Zach Johnson, Angel Cabrera, Brett Wetterich
Ames is probably going to be the favorite from this bracket, off his fast finish in 2007 and third-place check last week, but I'm giving Baddeley a slight edge -- he putted well most of last week, and if the iron play comes around a bit, we're onto something. His last three stops here have been messy, but he finished second in 2003 and 15th the year after, not too far in the memory bank. And there was something about Ames's body language late on Sunday that I didn't like; I'll trust my instincts and ignore his solid history here (DQ, T8, T7, T14).
There's not much else on form to suggest in this group -- Cabrera is a first-time starter, Johnson has just two trips (T47, cut), and Wetterich has missed the weekend in all three of his starts, which is why he's fetching 100-1 or better in some pools.
Group 3 Pick: Charles Howell
Other options: Brandt Snedeker, Boo Weekley, Marc Calcavecchia, Robert Allenby
Is it time for fantasy owners to forgive-and-forget with Howell? His second-half fade in 2007 left a mark, but he came out solidly last week, improving every day en route to a tie for eighth, and he's got an outstanding resume at Waialae (six straight checks, including a second last year, a third in 2005 and a fourth in 2002). Howell also came out smoking to open last season, let's not forget that.
I almost picked Snedeker -- you watch him swing the club for 10 minutes and you think "there's a future superstar" -- but he's only been here once, a missed cut last year. Still, if you want him in your stable, I can't blame you. Allenby's swing and easy-going gait have a similar effect on me, and he's done very well here, taking five checks in six starts including a pair of top-10s.
I'm a Weekley fan, really I am, but when a guy admits he didn't play much over the layoff, then comes to the first event and opens 80-74, it's going to take me some time to regain trust. As for Calcavecchia, I can't get over the vibe that he's headed for a cliff season of sorts, turning 48 this summer and all. Nothing I saw last week got me away from that thought. I'd love him to prove me wrong -- it's always more fun when Calc is in the hunt.
Group 4 Pick: Jerry Kelly
Other options: Jonathan Byrd, Carl Pettersson, John Senden, Peter Lonard)
Kelly fans have a strong case -- only Ernie Els has earned more money at this tournament than the Madison, Wisconsin product. Kelly won the event in 2002, and he's been 13th or better in five of the last six seasons. Pettersson has the consistent style that in theory should do well here, but he's wrapped two MCs around his 10th-place finish in 2006. Senden has three trunk-slams in five starts, Lonard hasn't done anything of note in his last three visits, and while Byrd has made four straight cuts, he's yet to contend here and he's struggled a bit on Sundays.
Group 5 Pick: Pet Perez
Other options: Heath Slocum, Kenny Perry, Sean O'Hair, Steve Flesch
When you hear the word "consistency" you don't think of Perez, who's had a volatile six years on tour. Alas, he's been pretty darn steady at Waialae, cashing five solid checks including four inside the Top 20. Perhaps he's about ready to turn all of his lessons of the 20s into a career year, just shy of his 32nd birthday.
As for the rest of the pool, good luck finding a resume to feel good about. Perry must love the sunsets, because he's made the Top 20 just once in 12 starts here. Flesch hasn't shown anything in four turns (nothing in the Top 50) and he had an uninspiring effort last week. Slocum tied for 20th last year but he's also missed three cuts in six turns. O'Hair is teeming with talent, but it hasn't shown up at the Sony (cut, T72).
Group 6 Pick: Nathan Green
Other options: Chad Campbell, Troy Matteson, Shaun Micheel, Vaughn Taylor
Green was in fine form in the second half of 2007, finishing 23th at the PGA and grabbing a pair of top-20s in the playoffs. He's also been solid here, with two checks, including a fifth in 2005. That makes him the clear choice in an uneven group. Plus I'm a sucker for guys who can putt, and Green's been one of the best the last two seasons.
Campbell actually hit the ball pretty well last week, but a mediocre putter let him down. I guess we can't be all that surprised, he's struggled with the flat stick for five years now. Micheel didn't make the cut here the last two years, Taylor's missed twice in three seasons, and Matteson's yet to crack the top 25.
Tie-Breaker Pick: Jeff Maggert
I've always admired Maggert's steady play, especially in any major where accuracy is demanded. He's acquitted himself nicely at Waialae over the years, making seven cuts in nine years including four Top 20s.
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