Fantasy Insider: Pebble Beach
By Scott Pianowski, The Fantasy Insider
AT&T Preview
Talk about an upset for the ages, one that took your breath away in the desert. Who expected J.B. Holmes to take down Phil Mickelson, anyway?
Okay, if you missed some of the Sunday action, you'll get a pass just this once. This weekend, you can make it up to your inner golf child, as we hit one of my very favorite events, the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am. Celebs join the fun, and we see three courses in all, but the gem of them all is Pebble Beach -- a tight and tricky layout that produces some of the prettiest aerial shots you ever did see. My girlfriend isn't a big golf fan, but she'll watch plenty of the action with me. It's almost like a weekend at the beach.
PGATOUR.com Pick 'em
You need one player in each of the six groups and one wild card selection. Last week was our first drive out of the fairway this season -- while Phil Mickelson was promoted in this space, the rest of the team didn't live up to expectations. Don't worry, we've been on the driving range ever since, paying the penance.
Group 1 Pick: Daniel Chopra
Other Options: Phil Mickelson, Justin Leonard, D.J. Trahan, J.B. Holmes
The favorite this week is certainly Mickelson, who's in fine form right now and absolutely owns this event. He's won two of the last three years here, and he's also got another win and a pair of thirds if you go further down the resume.
So why am I picking Chopra? Maybe it's an inspiration from the Super Bowl -- picking favorites gets passé after a while. I like how Chopra's hit the ball all year, and he's been quietly efficient at the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am (11, 5, 16, 25). I don't blame you for dialing up Mickelson, but I'm taking a big swing on the underdog.
Holmes won last week, and, outside of the true superstars, I'm not going to expect a repeat. Sorry J.B., it's a rule. He had a respectable 16th at his first Clambake.
Trahan hasn't made a cut since his win at the Bob Hope Chrysler Classic, and he's missed two straight cuts here. The last time we saw Justin Leonard, he was firing a 77 at the FBR Open -- I wonder whether that will cut into his confidence a bit. He's also missed two straight cuts here.
Group 2 Pick: Steve Marino
Other Options: Brandt Snedeker, Kevin Sutherland, Kevin Na, Steve Elkington
Marino might seem like another off-the-board pick -- he's been to the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am just once, missing the cut last year. But I like his consistency in 2008 (a fourth at the Sony, three respectable checks since), and this isn't a pool loaded with Pebble Beach experience.
Snedeker has been here once, checking in at 36th. Sutherland came in second last year and usually makes the cut, but 2007 was the first time he was in serious contention at the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am. Na's got one visit, a 69th-place check in 2004. Elkington was a consistent factor here during the 1990s, but he's struggled in recent visits (cut, 69, cut, cut, 69).
Group 3 Pick: Jim Furyk
Other Options: Nick Watney, Mike Weir, Dustin Johnson
Furyk's game translates well to this sort of event, patience, consistency. He's been sixth or better in four different stops at the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am. Weir's track record is actually better -- before last year's cut, he was on a mad seven-year Clambake run (3, 2, 4, 3, 52, 8, 7), but his 2008 swing hasn't been in place since the Mercedes Benz Championship (one missed cut, two other finishes outside the Top 40).
Dustin Johnson's got plenty of game, but keep expectations in place as he makes his AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am debut. Watney's four stops here include a seventh-place finish two years back.
Chez Reavie withdrew from the event Tuesday, so don't factor him into your plans this week.
Group 4 Pick: Hunter Mahan
Other Options: Pat Perez, Mark Wilson, Charlie Hoffman, Tom Pernice
Mahan wasn't a factor at the FBR Open, but he's bagged a couple of Top 20s here, and, honestly, I'm afraid to leave his upside on the bench. He's also leading the TOUR in greens in regulation, a stat to which you have to attach a lot of importance. Perez probably should have won this event in 2002, but his four visits since haven't been that fruitful (47, cut, 14, 57).
Wilson has four straight checks at the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am but nothing better than 25th, and Hoffman's best posting here is 50th. Pernice came in second in 1998, but, otherwise, he's missed nine cuts in 15 starts.
Group 5 Pick: Vijay Singh
Other Options: Jonathan Byrd, Ryan Moore, Charlie Wi, Parker McLachlin
Finally, I'm making a chalk selection -- I expect all of my opponents to dial up Singh, too. He won here in 2004, ran second in 2000 and 2001, and was 11th last year. He's a horse for the course.
Byrd's the alternative if you want to roll the dice, although he did little in four starts here before last year's third-place effort. He's hitting the ball straight as a string this year, and Byrd is always one of the best putters on TOUR, but that might be less of an advantage this week with the bumpy greens the players will be navigating.
Moore came in 19th last year, if you'd like to know, but I can't see how you use him over Singh. Wi and McLachlin have both been here twice and made one cut each.
Group 6 Pick: Briny Baird
Other Options: Jeff Quinney, Matt Jones, Brett Rumford
Baird had a couple of outstanding rounds at the FBR Open, and he came in 23rd at the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am in 2006, so he gets the nod in this pool with not a lot of other options.
Jones and Rumford are both making their debuts here, and Quinney doesn't have a track record to get behind (cut, cut, 64). Brian Gay was also in this pool, but he's withdrawn from the event.
Rest of the Field:
Say hello to Padraig Harrington, who's got the game to win anywhere even as he's been to this event just once (30th last year) ... Davis Love has an outstanding AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am resumé, but, given that this is his first start off ankle surgery, I'll probably wait and see on him in most fantasy formats ... Andres Romero missed the cut at the FBR Open after a 78 on Friday, and he's making his first appearance here ... Paul Goydos has four solid checks in his last five Clambakes, making him an interesting sleeper pick. His personality and makeup would seem to translate well to what works here ... Corey Pavin has missed three cuts in his last five stops at the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am, but he made the Top 10 in his other two starts. That at least puts him on our sleeper radar ... My feelings on Camilo Villegas border how I feel about Mahan -- I'm afraid to bench the talented youngster and miss out on a bunch of FedExCup points. Villegas ran 11th here in 2007, and he's made nine cuts in a row dating back to last year.
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