The Fantasy Insider: Buick Invitational
By Scott Pianowski, The Fantasy Insider
Golf fans have plenty to be excited about this week, and that goes double for the fantasy players in the crowd. Tiger and Phil make their 2008 debuts, Southern California is always a welcome sight at this time of year, and we get a sneak preview for the 2008 U.S. Open (to be held at Torrey Pines in June). Clear your schedule for the end of the week, you're going to need a healthy chunk of viewing time.
PGATOUR.com Pick 'em
You need one player in each of the six groups, a wild card selection, and a little luck. We didn't have D.J. Trahan last week -- did anyone? -- but Justin Leonard and Anthony Kim were promoted in this space, providing a healthy chunk of FedExCup points to the faithful.
Group 1 Pick: Tiger Woods
Other Options: Phil Mickelson, Jim Furyk, Vijay Singh, K.J. Choi
If you're going to play the "beat Tiger" game, at least try it on a course he doesn't care for. Torrey Pines is one of the most Tiger-friendly tracks you'll find, a layout that favors the long hitter and isn't too penal on the occasional wayward shot. The Woods resume for this tournament is unreal: five wins (three in a row) over 10 starts, nine top-fives, and a 10th for the heck of it. Even in formats where you're limited to the amount of Tiger use, you have to dial him up here.
Mickelson would be the clear choice in a Tiger-less field -- he grew up playing Torrey Pines and he's won three times here, albeit the last trophy came in 2001. Since then we're seen three top-10s over five starts, a record that most players would happily accept. You can be sure Lefty will have the driver out early and often, having fun and looking to attack.
Furyk is one of many players using this event as a U.S. Open scouting trip -- he's missed the cut in both of his Buick Invitational appearances, and he hasn't seen the grounds since 2001. Singh hasn't made the top 10 in any of his five starts, and Choi hasn't done better than 18th in his seven trips.
Group 2 Pick: Stewart Cink
Other Options: Rory Sabbatini, Aaron Baddeley, Geoff Ogilvy
Lots of big names here, but they haven't been big factors at the Buick Invitational. Sabbatini finished fifth in 2001 but he's missed four cuts in his last eight visits; Baddeley's average finish over four starts is a mediocre 53rd; Ogilvy has two missed cuts and a 67th on his resume. And Trevor Immelman dropped out Monday so don't factor him into your plans this week.
That brings us back to Cink, who's been steady over seven visits (14, 28, 10, cut, 28, 26, 13). He fits the profile that works at Torrey Pines -- a long hitter who isn't always in the short grass. Don't overthink this position -- Cink is the smart play.
Group 3 Pick: Hunter Mahan
Other Options: Tim Clark, Woody Austin, Stephen Ames, Brett Wetterich
Mahan doesn't have much of a history here but give him time, he's just 25. His 69-64 finish at the Mercedes-Benz Championship made an impression on me, not to mention the blistering second-half run he put together in 2007. Here's one of the breakthrough stars on the TOUR, and I want in while the stock is still rising. He can hit it long enough -- and straight enough -- to paint the leaderboard red.
Clark has done well here (10, cut, 12) despite being one of the shortest hitters around. With the field more padded than usual this week, I'm less inclined to use him. The rest of the pool is still trying to figure out Torrey Pines: Austin has six missed cuts in 11 starts, and nothing in the top 20; Wetterich hasn't broken 70 in 12 rounds here; and Ames has yet to see the top 40 in seven tries.
Group 4 Pick: Charles Howell
Other Options: Boo Weekley, Stuart Appleby, Nick O'Hern, Mike Weir
Howell is another player who fits the suit this week, a big hitter who sprays the ball around now and then. That's OK at Torrey Pines, as Howell well knows -- he came in second here in 2007 and 2005, and he also ran seventh in 2003. He's had some time to rest after his missed cut at the Sony Open; I think he'll be strong right out of the chute here.
I challenge you to find another logical angle in the pool. Weekley's yet to play the weekend at the Buick Invitational; Appleby's missed two cuts and hasn't cracked the top 20 over five starts; O'Hern is making his tournament debut; and Weir hasn't returned since his fifth-place finish in 2001.
Group 5 Pick: Brandt Snedeker
Other Options: Mark Calcavecchia, Robert Allenby, John Senden, Rod Pampling
Snedeker will need to be precise with his irons, but the concrete blonde found a way to finish third at Torrey Pines last year, he comes in rested, and I'm not in love with the rest of the Group 5 pool.
Calc's got a nice Buick Invitational resume, but at what point does fatigue become an issue with the 47-year-old? He's yet to take a week off this year. Senden needs to play better on the weekend; he's shot 75 in his last three Saturday rounds at Torrey Pines. Allenby cashed a ninth-place check in his last visit, on the heels of three mediocre showings (CUT, 40, 30). Pampling's been hit-or-miss over five starts, but I don't think he has enough length to make a serious run.
Group 6 Pick: Camilo Villegas
Other Options: Peter Lonard, Sean O'Hair, Carl Pettersson, Jerry Kelly
Villegas hasn't made the cut in two starts here, but I'll give the youngster some slack. He's a bomber off the tee, he's rested and prepared for the event, and he's too talented to not figure out Torrey Pines sooner or later.
Lonard is the form play, with two decent checks in three visits (CUT, 14, 22). I'm surprised O'Hair has struggled here (three missed cuts, scoring average of 73.3), but that's enough to get me off the scent. Kelly's missed the last two Buick Invitational cuts and he's giving up too much ground off the tee, I'm thinking. Pettersson made a run in 2003, but he's done nothing in four starts since.
Tie-Breaker Pick: Anthony Kim
I like how he hit the ball last week, and while Kim didn't make the cut at the Buick Invitational in 2007, he did card a respectable 68 on Friday. He's got the length to make this one of his favorite stops, potentially joining the Tiger and Phil club.
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