The Fantasy Insider: FBR Open
By Scott Pianowski, The Fantasy Insider
Who needs a party for the big game when there's a four-day fiesta on tap at the FBR Open, one of the liveliest stops on the TOUR every season. It's the place to be if you're a red-number fan; the average winning score at TPC Scottsdale over the last seven years is a blistering 20-under. Apply some sun block, get on your flip-flops and let's find some birdies in the desert.
PGATOUR.com Pick 'em
You need one player in each of the six groups and a wild card selection. We did our part here last week giving you a stunning pick of Tiger Woods (first), along with Stewart Cink (third), Charles Howell (tied for 13th) and Camilo Villegas (tied for 13th).
Group 1 Pick: Phil Mickelson
Other Options: Vijay Singh, Rory Sabbatini, Steve Stricker
Mickelson's won twice here, and he's the all-time money leader for the FBR Open, feeding off the enthusiasm of those Arizona State fans. He missed the cut last year, but no worries, there's a pretty resume just before that (seventh, first, seventh, ninth). With Tiger not in the field, the road to the winner's circle clearly goes through Mickelson this week.
If you'd prefer a right-hander on your ticket, Singh is a solid pick. He's also bagged a pair of trophies at the FBR Open and he's made 12-of-13 cuts, with a handful of Top-10s in the mix. I'd feel a little better if he showed more in January, but, nonetheless, Singh looks like the clear No. 2 option for this week.
Sabbatini and Stricker have made this trek often and cashed plenty of checks, but, collectively, they have just two Top-10s over 22 starts here. That's not enough of a track record to get play in the top group. Ogilvy's resume eliminates him quickly (cut, 20th, 27th, cut, cut, 40th).
Group 2 Pick: Stewart Cink
Other Options: Aaron Baddeley, Trevor Immelman, Arron Oberholser, Andres Romero
It comes down to Cink or Baddeley in this group, and I'm going to shade away from Baddeley given my general bias against any defending tournament champion who isn't named Woods. Cink's game is in fine form anyway -- off a third last week, and he's posted four Top-15s in his last five visits to the desert.
Immelman (rib surgery) and Oberholser (hand surgery) are both making their seasonal debuts, so they need to prove their way onto our rosters. Some skepticism on Romero also makes sense; he's yet to play the course.
Group 3 Pick: Hunter Mahan
Other Options: Woody Austin, Stuart Appleby, Brett Wetterich, Mike Weir
Perhaps I'm chasing a little on Mahan, afraid to miss a birdie barrage if I leave him on the bench at the wrong time. But he did grab a ninth-place check in Scottsdale two years ago, and if you're going to play against the rising star in this spot, who do you opt for?
Austin must be a fan of Arizona cuisine, because he's missed six cuts in his last eight visits to the FBR Open. Appleby hasn't been here since 2002, and his prior Scottsdale resume is underwhelming (cut, 49th, 18th, 69th, cut). Wetterich made his debut last year and didn't crack the top 40, and Weir's steady if unspectacular game doesn't translate to what wins in the desert.
Group 4 Pick: David Toms
Other Options: Charles Howell, Brandt Snedeker, Boo Weekley, Nick O'Hern
It should be an easy ticket punch on Toms, who's made nine straight cuts here, including four finishes in the Top 11 - you just hope he's completely over the calf injury he suffered playing tennis a few months ago. I'll give him the benefit of the doubt.
I'm a little surprised Howell hasn't made a run here because he should be a horse for the course. He's made six cuts in a row in Scottsdale but finished in nothing better than 18th place. Snedeker was a solid 23rd in his FBR Open debut, but, without a ton of length or course knowledge, I'd prefer to look elsewhere. Weekley has just one start here (54th), and O'Hern is making his desert debut.
Group 5 Pick: Camilo Villegas
Other Options: Mark Calcavecchia, Robert Allenby, John Senden, Rod Pampling
Villegas justified the faith last week, so let's look his way again. He's a good fit for the track, he finished second in 2006 and he's got the best hair in this pool. Go ahead, beat that argument.
If Calc wasn't playing for the fifth straight week, I'd probably dial him up here. He used to own this event back in the day (three wins), and even as the results have dipped since the 2001 title, he's still the first guy I think of at the FBR Open. Still, without a break in the early schedule, I worry about fatigue for the 47-year-old.
I can't send it in on Senden, not off his four desert starts (50th, cut, 54th, cut). Allenby's last five turns are slightly better than that but nothing to write home about. Pampling has cashed five straight times at the FBR Open, with two checks inside the Top 14.
Group 6 Pick: Carl Pettersson
Other Options: Peter Lonard, Sean O'Hair, Jerry Kelly, Jonathan Byrd
The program isn't going to offer much at first glance. O'Hair hasn't made a cut here in two tries, Kelly's slammed the trunk three times in a row and Byrd had three forgettable turns (61st, cut, cut) before last year's seventh-place finish. Lonard ran 14th last year, but he's yet to make a cut this season.
So let's make a safe pick with Pettersson, who's at least played four rounds in both of his starts here. He was 23rd in birdie average last year, and you need a collection of those to contend in Scottsdale.
Rest of the Field:
Justin Leonard is an easy tie-breaker pick off his blistering start to the year (eighth, second, fifth). He's been hit-or-miss at this event, missing the cut four times in seven turns, but the hits have been worth it (seventh, ninth, 24th) ... K.J. Choi changed his mind and decided to come back to Scottsdale after initially crossing it off his schedule. He finished 11th in 2005, but he's missed the weekend in his other four turns here ... Kenny Perry has a game that suits this week's test, and he's made the Top 10 in four of his last 11 starts here. He also looked ready for a comeback year with a solid push-off in California ... Dean Wilson isn't a bad sleeper play; he's been in the Top 10 the last two stops here, and he finished a respectable 29th last week ... Bubba Watson's game wasn't in fine form over the first month -- no getting around that -- but he's capable of going on a birdie run over this track. He collected four rounds in the 60s en route to an eighth-place finish at last year's FBR Open ... Let's close this week's column with a word about Heath Slocum, who's grabbed four straight checks here including a sixth and a 14th. I'll sign off on a Slocum play.
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