Placing odds on the Rookie of the Year candidates

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Andres Romero, the Zurich Classic of New Orleans winner, was the top FedExCup performer among all rookies in 2008.

If history is a yardstick, there may be a major championship or two in the future of this year's rookie winners on the PGA TOUR.

Four rookies -- Andres Romero, Chez Reavie, Dustin Johnson and Marc Turnesa -- have reached the winner's circle in 2008 and with three events left in the Fall Series, the list could grow to five, matching a record set in 2004.

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That year, the rookie winners were Todd Hamilton (Honda Classic, Open Championship), Zach Johnson (BellSouth Classic), Vaughn Taylor (Reno-Tahoe Open), Andre Stolz (Michelin Championship) and Ryan Palmer (FUNAI Classic). Hamilton won rookie honors by a wide margin. His two victories were enough to secure that vote. Toss in a major as the second win and it was no contest.

Three years later Zach Johnson became the next rookie from that crop to win a major with his victory at the 2007 Masters.

But before the four rookie winners this year start dreaming of major glory, the more immediate question is which one will win the TOUR's Rookie of the Year award? After all, that might be a more significant precursor to a major title, considering three of the last five Rookie of the Year winners -- and seven of the last 17 -- have won majors.

At this stage, Romero is the favorite for rookie honors. In addition to his victory at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans, Romero finished 28th in FedExCup points and is 31st on the money list, eight spots ahead of Dustin Johnson.

Reavie, Dustin Johnson or Turnesa would, at least, have to pass Romero on the money list to stake their claim for rookie honors. But another victory would change the snapshot entirely for any of the contenders. Dustin Johnson and Reavie are in the field this week at the Frys.com Open.

More significant are Romero's big finishes in major championships: in eight career majors he's finished in the top 10 four times, including a T8 at this year's Masters and a T7 at the PGA Championship at Oakland Hills.

Romero, 27, burst onto the scene with a third-place finish at last year's Open Championship at Carnoustie. He had a two-shot lead with two holes to play but finished double bogey-bogey and opened the door for Padraig Harrington's playoff victory over Sergio Garcia.

Romero won his first European Tour title the week after Carnoustie at The Deutsche Bank Players Championship of Europe and followed it up with a T6 at the World Golf Championships-Bridgestone Invitational.

"I learned a lot after that week (at Carnoustie)," Romero said during this year's PGA Championship, where he equaled the course record at Oakland Hills with a 5-under 65. "Not to go down after that loss helped me a lot. It was a very good experience."

A look at the top contenders for Rookie of the Year honors (click here for more coverage of this year's rookies):

Andres Romero

FedExCup ranking: 28 Money list/earnings: 31/$2,064,612 Best finishes: 1, Zurich Classic of New Orleans; T7, PGA Championship; T8, Masters Best rounds: 65 - PGA Championship (Rd. 3), Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Rd. 3) Skinny: Made it to the PGA TOUR by finishing in the top 125 in non-member earnings last year. The victory at the Zurich Classic came in his 12th start, as he shot 69-65-68 in the first three rounds and eventually finished one shot ahead of Peter Lonard. Romero joined Robert De Vicenzo, Jose Coceres and Angel Cabrera as Argentines who have won on the TOUR. Odds: He's the front-runner. 5-to-2

Dustin Johnson

FedExCup ranking: 134 Money list/earnings: 39/$1,789,895 Best finishes: 1, Turning Stone Resort Championship; T7, AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am; T10, Sony Open in Hawaii Best round: 63, Bob Hope Chrysler Classic (Rd. 4) Skinny: Johnson didn't waste any time making an impression. He shot three rounds in the 60s to tie for 10th at the Sony Open in only his second career TOUR start. A few weeks later, he tied for 12th at the Bob Hope Chrysler Classic. But the most impressive thing Johnson did this year was finish birdie-birdie to win the Turning Stone Resort Championship by one over veteran Robert Allenby. Johnson, 24, is the second youngest winner on TOUR this year behind Anthony Kim. Odds: 8-to-1

Chez Reavie

FedExCup ranking: 57 Money list/earnings: 66/$1,444,102 Best finishes: 1, RBC Canadian Open; T5, Bob Hope Chrysler Classic Best rounds: 64, Canadian Open (Rd. 2), Shriners Hospitals (Rd. 1) Skinny: Reavie joined elite company when he became the first player since Jerry Pate 22 years ago to win the Canadian Open on his first try. Reavie won by three shots over veteran Billy Mayfair. That netted him invitations to the World Golf Championships-Bridgestone Invitational and the PGA Championship. It also led Reavie, the 2001 U.S. Public Links Champion, to re-examine his goals once he had assured himself of staying on TOUR. "I've opened up a whole bunch of doors that weren't even in my sights," said Reavie, acknowledging his surprise at the significant advancement of his career. Odds: 10-to-1

Marc Turnesa

FedExCup ranking: 168 Money list/earnings: 75/$1,318,052 Best finishes: 1, Justin Timberlake Shriners Hospital for Children Open; P2, Viking Classic Best round: 62, Shriners Hospitals (Rd. 1) Skinny: Turnesa had the outright lead after each of the first three rounds of the Viking Classic. His efforts came undone with a double bogey on the 71st hole that enabled Will MacKenzie and Brian Gay to get into a playoff. MacKenzie won on the second extra hole. At that point, there was no telling which direction Turnesa's season might go. To his credit, he bounced back in style to win in Las Vegas. Odds: 12-to-1

Vartan Kupelian is a columnist for PGATOUR.COM. His views do not necessarily represent the views of the PGA TOUR.