Fantasy Insider: BMW Championship

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It's been 16 years since Bellerive Country Club has been on the radar (Nick Price won the 1992 PGA Championship there), and based on everything I've seen and heard about this layout, that's too long a wait. Shuffle over to Archway City and let the bubble watch begin -- only 30 players will advance to the closing event of the playoffs, THE TOUR Championship. Time to shift into overdrive; this is a critical week.

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Sergio Garcia has had two ties for second and a tie for fifth in his last three starts.

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PGATOUR.com Playoff Pick 'em

You need six selections and one wild-card pick, as usual. I didn't get the memo on Vijay Singh's pending playoff dominance in 2008, so we're running from behind as we enter the third leg.

Group 1 Pick: Sergio Garcia
Other Options: Vijay Singh, Kevin Sutherland, Mike Weir, Justin Leonard

I know it seems almost silly to not pick Singh at this point, but Garcia's playing the best golf of his life (three straight top fives, and don't forget the win at THE PLAYERS Championship earlier this year), and he might be a bit hungrier given the point gap he's facing. Perhaps Singh will slide into cruise control with his big lead in the standings, but I'm expecting Garcia to be pedal-to-the-metal, and I want a piece of his next win -- whenever it comes.

Weir's an interesting play in this spot -- he's hitting the ball beautifully, and I've always loved his touch around the greens. If you want to opt for the lefty, I'm on board. Sutherland's in fine form but he's never won a stroke-play event on the PGA TOUR, and I can't pull the trigger on him here. Leonard's putter will serve him well at Bellerive Country Club, but the length of the track is an issue. Perhaps the cagey Texan can figure out the nuances of the course more quickly than the rest of the field.

Group 2 Pick: Jim Furyk
Other Options: Ken Duke, Ben Curtis, Chad Campbell, Kevin Streelman

The only thing missing from Furyk's season is a win -- he's been all around it for eight months. The early scouting report on Bellerive Country Club plays into Furyk's hands: it's a layout where driving accuracy and precise iron-play are essential. Furyk's as mentally tough as they come, and the pressure of this time of year (and the grind of the strong fields) won't throw him at all. I'll be stunned if he's not in the top 20.

Curtis lost his way a little bit over the last two Deutsche Bank rounds, but, for the most part, he's been outstanding since his missed cut at the U.S. Open. A straight driver, a creamy-smooth game around the green, some St. Louis Rams garb perhaps -- I'm on board with Curtis in this spot, so long as the he's not distracted by the opening of the NFL season.

Streelman has been a check-machine all summer (12 in a row), but he's also playing in his eighth event since the beginning of July, and you have to wonder about fatigue (keep in mind the players have just a short rest with the Deutsche Bank Championship ending Monday). His 73-77 finish in Boston gets me away from the scent here.

Duke's outstanding run over the last seven weeks has flown under the radar (18-2-11-13-60-12-10), but, like Streelman, I worry about fatigue a little bit. Campbell could be a horse for the course -- he's still one of the best ball-strikers around, and he's putting better than ever.

Kim

Group 3 Pick: Anthony Kim
Other Options: K.J. Choi, Steve Stricker, Hunter Mahan, Bubba Watson

Kim gets the pick for his talent, his nerve, and his age -- at this time of year more than ever, stamina plays into the equation. Mahan offers the same theme, but Kim's got a more impressive 2008 resume for our purposes.

It's great to see Stricker healthy and playing well again (seven straight cuts made, four top-20 checks), but perhaps it's human nature to have a slight letdown after making the Ryder Cup team as a captain's picks Tuesday. Watson's always a tricky call for me given his driving accuracy (187th) and putting average (180th). He hasn't seriously contended since the Buick Open in June. Choi is another player looking for his best foot; his last top-10 finish came at the Wolrd Golf Championships-Accenture Match Play Championship in February.

Els

Group 4 Pick: Ernie Els
Other Options: Tim Clark, Scott Verplank, Stuart Appleby, Camilo Villegas

It's fun to have Els back in form, and he's setting himself up to be one of the fantasy bargains of 2009. If Bellerive gets the major-type setup many are expecting, it's a track that's going to mesh well with Els, a super-long iron player and confident again on the greens.

I'm expecting the Ryder Cup snub to light a fire under Verplank this week, and he's been quietly efficient for most of the summer (six checks in seven starts). With all due respect to the players chosen by U.S. Captain Paul Azinger, I would have found a spot for Verplank.

Clark's dazzling 62 last Saturday put him into the mix at TPC Boston, but I wasn't thrilled with how he closed (73-74). He'll need a short memory to get back into the chase at Bellerive. Villegas is always an interesting play if he can get his driver locked in; he's got the rest of the stat profile we like (solid irons, excellent putter). Appleby's ordinary iron stats have me hesitant to use him on a course blind, albeit the golf fan in me will always be pulling for him.

Mickelson

Group 5 Pick: Phil Mickelson
Other Options: Mark Wilson, Carl Pettersson, Briny Baird, Brett Quigley

With all due respect to the fine players in this pool, there's no way I'm looking past the chance to use Mickelson as a Group 5 selection. Okay, he didn't fire in Boston like I expected, but Lefty's always had a short memory where needed on TOUR, and I expect him to gather some momentum heading into THE TOUR Championship. No matter your game or format, I urge you to go double-or-nothing with me here.

Pettersson's grinder mentality helps him on the relatively-unknown course, and I love how his scoring average is consistently better than what the individual stats suggest. Baird I always give a chance to because I'm a sucker for radar irons, but his putting needs to step forward if he's going to break through. Wilson is a fairways-and-greens guy who almost never misses a cut, though the length of the course worries me a spec on him. Underrated player, though. Quigley's game has been in fine form for the entire summer, but as a 40-year-old journeyman without a career win, I'm still in a let's-see-it mode on him for the Playoffs.

Merrick

Group 6 Pick: John Merrick
Other Options: Stewart Cink, Charlie Hoffman, John Senden, Brandt Snedeker

There's a lot to like about Merrick tee-to-green; he just needs to roll the ball a little more consistently. Keep an eye on this kid, and let's finish our pool selections with a mild upset, just for fun.

Snedeker always gives you a solid run, but he hasn't been in real contention since the U.S. Open. Cink also has the look of someone whose season might have already peaked, and Hoffman hasn't cracked the top 20 since the spring. I'll get behind John Senden's ball striking anytime, but he needs to get something rolling on the greens (148th in putting average) if he's going to make a push here.

Rest of the Field: Ben Crane got some love in this column last week and came through for us, so let's stick with what works. He's a heck of a ball striker, an underrated putter, and capable of figuring out a new course quickly. ... Heath Slocum's close in Boston (74) left a lot to be desired, but let's not look past what he did the first three days. He's the ultimate driving machine off the tee (10th in accuracy) and 53rd in GIR, two key stats as we head to a course no one knows that well yet. ... I'm not writing Rory Sabbatini off for 2008; there's too much talent there. I feel a top-20 finish, and I can't really give you a reason, it's a gut selection. ... Angel Cabrera has improved his finish the last three weeks, and he's got that look in his eye again, relaxed and yet hungry. Let's not forget he's 29th in Official World Golf Rankings and a little over a year removed from a major title. ... Woody Austin is always fun to watch no matter the stage, and we know he'll wear out the fairways and greens. Give him some early success with the flat stick, and this should be a four-round story. ... I've been wrong with much of my Padraig Harrington advice this year (I certainly didn't have him winning either major), so you're invited to make your own call on him. No one expected him to miss the cut in the first two Playoffs events, obviously. ... Mathew Goggin took a step back in Boston (missed cut) after his deep run at The Barclays, but maybe the extra rest will give him an edge on the field here. I still fully expect him to bag a win at some point before we hit the new decade.