Fantasy Insider: The Barclays gets us started
By Scott Pianowski, The Fantasy Insider
It's Playoff time: The field is loaded, the stakes are raised. Get your best Jim Mora sound byte cued up, and let's see if we can get on a roll as the most exciting part of the year kicks in.
PGATOUR.com Playoff Pick 'em
You need six selections and one wild-card pick, as usual. Carl Pettersson justified the love last week.
Group 1 Pick: Padraig Harrington
Other Options: Phil Mickelson, Anthony Kim, Stewart Cink, Kenny Perry
If the rough is going to be harsh at Ridgewood Country Club, that puts a greater emphasis on patience, mental toughness, taking what the course gives you. No one is playing that sort of game any better than Harrington right now; note how coolly he negotiated his way to a pair of majors on downright masochistic setups. Most of the field is driving blind this week on a course that's new to just about everyone, but I'll give Harrington the benefit of the doubt; he can diagnose a track as quickly as anyone on the circuit these days.
Perry's had a heck of a year, but the pixie dust has worn off the last few weeks, and he's coming off the eye issue at the PGA. I can't use him in this pool. Mickelson's wayward driver concerns me, albeit he's been over the course before and seems to favor the layout. Kim has the raw ball-striking skill to overcome any course if he gets things in line quickly. I'm sure I'll be using him before the playoffs are complete. Cink is generally a very safe pick, but something's been off with his swing ever since the win at the Travelers Championship.
Group 2 Pick: Robert Allenby
Other Options: Vijay Singh, Geoff Ogilvy, Ryuji Imada, Justin Leonard
It's amazing that Allenby hasn't won an event this season, but he's been money just about every week, excelling in just about every area. I have no questions about his driving and iron play (sixth in GIR); the key for Allenby comes down to play around and on the green. Keep an eye on him Saturday, where a lot of winning dreams have faded away; he's just 142nd in third-round scoring this year. I still think he has a trophy-grab to come for 2008.
Leonard and Imada both have the short game needed to tackle a challenge like Ridgewood, and Ogilvy's chances get better the harder you make the course. I can't fault anyone for opting for those guys. Singh is still as good as anyone tee-to-green, but you never really know what you're getting with the flat stick.
Group 3 Pick: Jim Furyk
Other Options: Sergio Garcia, Boo Weekley, Carl Pettersson, Sean O'Hair
Deep field, shaggy rough, hot weather, crazy pressure -- none of it is going to get to Furyk, one of the best grinders in the game. I'm picking him to be the playoff champion at the end of it all, and I'm expecting a strong push-off from the rock-solid, rested and reliable pro. Furyk's putting hasn't been up to past standards in 2008, but he's got enough nerve, back class and confidence to get that sorted out.
Going double-or-nothing on Garcia is always an interesting angle, one I've probably overplayed since his win at The PLAYERS. When Garcia gets in a groove, there might not be a better ball-striker out here. His putting ultimately comes down to early confidence. Don't forget he was just 2-3 shots away from taking the PGA two weeks ago.
Pettersson seldom gives you a bad run, and, obviously, he was letter-perfect for so much of last week. It's hard to expect anyone to take back-to-back events, though. Weekley has a tremendous tee-to-green game, but his putting issues make me wary (he's 202nd in that key stat). Don't overlook O'Hair, who's been quietly back on his game the last three events (just one bad round in the bunch).
Group 4 Pick: Steve Stricker
Other Options: K.J. Choi, Trevor Immelman, Stuart Appleby, D.J. Trahan
Stricker got hot at this time last year, he's playing for a Ryder Cup spot, and he's got the guts to make pressure putts. I'm fully expecting his best game to resurface over the next two months.
K.J. Choi's play around the green will help him if the rough takes down as many shots as I expect. Trahan doesn't back away from the challenge of a difficult track -- he's played well in the last two stateside majors, in addition to some other courses of note -- so keep him on the sleeper page. Appleby's not having his best year with the driver or the irons, a tough combination to face at this time of the season. Trevor Immelman was respectable at Royal Birkdale, but otherwise he's been out of the mix for a couple of months now; his GIR and putting numbers get me off the scent.
Group 5 Pick: Andres Romero
Other Options: Adam Scott, J.B. Holmes, Ernie Els, Jeff Quinney
Romero is still flying somewhat under the radar, but there's a lot to like here. He played well in all the majors, and he consistently scores better than his individual stats say he should -- I really like that. Resourceful, confident, creative, those are great traits to have in the bag when things kick off Thursday.
There's a definite case to be made for Els; he might have taken the British Open had he not lost out on the wind lottery Thursday, and he's been solid in his other starts over the last month. Don't let the cool makeup throw you here, the competitive juices are still flowing, and I wouldn't be surprised if Ernie comes up with a signature performance in the playoff season.
The setup, from what I've heard, doesn't ideally fit the bomber profile of Holmes (albeit Holmes does have the ability to adjust; witness his run at the PGA). I'm in "show-me" mode on Scott, who's been somewhat of a tease in premier events. I'd buy stock in Quinney's future in a second, but he's been in a summer slump, no getting around it (one check over six starts).
Group 6 Pick: Ben Curtis
Other Options: Hunter Mahan, Bart Bryant, Chad Campbell, Stephen Ames
I almost went with Campbell, the noted ball-striker who's putting better than ever, and Mahan's upside is always singing to me. Ames has a track record of playing well on difficult layouts, and Bryant's steady stat profile across the board lends itself to a strong argument.
But at the end of the day, I couldn't look past the Curtis Redemption, his outstanding play the last five months. I wasn't sure how to take his second-place finish at the Wachovia Championship back in May, but he's more than validated it with seven checks in eight starts, including Top 10s at the British Open and PGA Championship. An accurate driver, a reliable putter, plenty of confidence; that could go a long way this week.
Rest of the Field: Retief Goosen might be back in the elite player discussion sooner than you think; he's made 11-of-12 cuts and most of them have been meaty checks. He's another player who's capable of out-scoring his raw stats, and he's got the head and stomach to handle the pressure of a big stage. ... Brandt Snedeker has stepped up his game on the big stage many times this year, so it's fair to expect that trend to continue during the playoffs. He needs to clean up the driver a little bit, but I love his iron play and eye on the greens. ... Ben Crane has no obvious weaknesses on the stat sheet, and it's about time he made a deep run at a premier event. ... David Toms gets a boost from any course where power isn't a mandate, and he's been on the cusp of a breakthrough (note the tie for 15th at the PGA). ... I hope Rocco Mediate is over whatever ailed him at the end of the PGA, because he's got a possible Ryder Cup spot on the line if he can recapture the magic of earlier in the summer. The heart wants to buy into the story; the head needs one day of positive feedback. ... Zach Johnson hits it about as straight as anyone, and while his putting numbers don't look pretty in 2008, you don't win the Masters (as he did in 2007) without having some skill with the flat stick. ... Ian Poulter had a spotty track record in majors before his near-miss at the British Open, and he's kept it going with decent checks at the Bridgestone Invitational and the PGA. The talent has always been there; he just needed a little positive momentum. He's capable of winning here.
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