Print this page  |  Close Window

By CheChe23
PROTRADE Contributor

The field has been cut to the top 120 point scorers for the Deutsche Bank Championship and the second round of the PGA TOUR Playoffs for the FedExCup. All but five -- No. 10 Ernie Els, No. 15 Scott Verplank, No. 59 Bernhard Langer, No. 87 Tom Lehman and No. 98 Jose Maria Olazabal -- of the 120 golfers who qualified will be teeing off this weekend. Choosing the top two, Tiger Woods and Vijay Singh, might be a wise idea.

WHO TO PICK

Last year at this event, Woods and Singh were paired together in the final round where Singh posted a course record 61, but Woods managed to answer with a 63 to win. Singh has been off his game lately after missing two straight cuts and Woods might be rusty having stayed home last weekend. So even though Woods and Singh have each won and been runner-up at the TPC Boston, I'm not so certain they'll finish that way this weekend. Here are my golfers to consider:

1. Justin Rose
Justin Rose knows how to pace himself from Thursday to Sunday -- or, Friday to Monday, in this case -- as well as anyone on TOUR, making him a good bet to win the Deutsche Bank Championship. Rose and Tiger Woods are the only golfers on TOUR who made the cut in every event they entered this season (Rose has played four rounds in each of his last 15 tournaments). Even though Rose played in just 12 events, he still scored enough FedExCup points to rank 22nd. Rose is able to get it done in the first two rounds better than anyone; his scoring average before the cut ranks first on TOUR (69.96), and his all-around game (which is computed by totaling a player's rank in the following statistics: Scoring Leaders, Putting Leaders, Eagle/Birdie Leaders, Sand Saves, GIR, Driving Distance and Accuracy) is third best on TOUR behind Woods and Singh. Ever since Rose finished 62nd at the Nissan Open in February, he's basically been perfect. He had back-to-back ties for fifth, as well as three top-10 finishes, which included a tie for second, and he filled in the rest of the weekends finishing T30, 12th, 12th and 14th. If Rose can capture the 9,000 points that come with winning the Deutsche Bank Championship, he could move from 22nd to second in the FedExCup standings.

2. Mark Calcavecchia
Mark Calcavecchia has been on my radar since the beginning of the season. One reason I've watched him closely is because Calcavecchia put up back-to-back top-10 finishes and won the PODS Championship all before mid-March. His strong play continued into April before tailing off in May and June. Calcavecchia appeared to be back on track after he tied for 23rd in the British Open and then tied for 14th at the World Golf Championships-Bridgestone Invitational. So, I confidently picked him to do well at the PGA Championship where he shot a first-round 79 and missed the cut. After a tie for fourth last weekend, though, I'm again convinced that he's going to roll the rest of the way.

3. Sean O'Hair
At just 25, this young gun is ready to break out, and he could use the playoffs as his launch pad. Maybe due to his inexperience, or maybe it was nerves, O'Hair started the season slowly, missing the cut in five of the first six tournaments. Once O'Hair got comfortable, he rang off a string of four straight top-20 finishes. O'Hair has the ability to put together four solid rounds of golf -- his best finish this season came at the Memorial Tournament where he tied for fifth. O'Hair stalled at the end of the season as he finished tied for 67th at the British Open, tied for 50th at the Canadian Open presented by Franklin Templeton Investments and tied for 42nd at the PGA. O'Hair entered The Barclays right on the cut line for the BMW Championship as the 70th player overall in the FedExCup standings. And after his tie for 25th at Westchester, he moved up two spots to 68th -- just under the cut line. O'Hair might be a player who thrives in a win-or-go-home situation. We'll see if he can overcome his inexperience and focus on a top finish.

4. Ken Duke
Yeah, that's right. Ken Duke. You might be wondering how I came up with Ken Duke. Well, here's why: Not only does Duke need to earn points this weekend and next to get into the top 30, but he's mad at himself. Duke has played well all season -- he had four top-10 finishes including at second place at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans -- and he's been clutch. Going into the stretch run of the season, though, Duke needed to score points. What resulted was a tie for 12th at the Reno-Tahoe Open earning him 217 points, followed by a solid performance (tie for 18th) at the PGA Championship earning him an additional 359 points. With the top 70 locked-up after two consecutive weekends of great golf, Duke eagerly awaited his chance to play Playoff golf. What happened wasn't what Duke waited for at all -- he shot two rounds of 74 and missed the cut. If Duke can pull it together and keep his number of putts below 29 per round, he could have a great chance of earning enough points to get an invite into the final round of the playoffs.

WHO TO AVOID

Steve Stricker, K.J. Choi and Rory Sabbatini have all moved ahead of Woods in the FedExCup standings, but that doesn't mean they'll remain at the top over the next three events. With 50 golfers being eliminated after Sunday's final round of the Deutsche Bank Championship, there are sure to be plenty of big name players that will miss out on round three of the playoffs. Here are my players to avoid:

1. Steve Stricker
Stricker has already clinched his place in the top 30, and he's made the cut in 10 of the past 11 events he's started. After winning The Barclays and moving from 12th to first in the standings, my thoughts are that Stricker can't go anywhere but down from here. Also, after reviewing his results from past tournaments, Stricker tends to fall off the weekend after a top finish. In his first event of the year, Stricker tied for fourth, then missed the cut the next time he played. After tying for fifth at The Honda Classic, he missed the cut at his next event. And after his tie for ninth at the Shell Houston Open, Stricker again missed the cut in the Masters the following weekend. Stricker did tie for 52nd after finishing second at the Wachovia Championship and followed a second place at the AT&T National with a tie for eighth at the British Open. But after four grueling rounds of pressure golf this past weekend, Stricker's mind and body might be drained. I expect a poor showing from The Barclays winner this weekend.

2. Retief Goosen
Retief Goosen is currently ranked 17th in the world. It was only a short time ago that Goosen was mentioned in the same breath as Tiger Woods, Ernie Els, Phil Mickelson and Vijay Singh. Goosen finds himself on life support this weekend as he sits 86th overall in the FedExCup standings. He needs to pick up more than 1,500 points to move into the top 70, which would take a top-five finish. The more you play, the more you score, and by entering just 12 events, Goosen didn't exactly make it easy on himself to score points. He's only missed the cut once, but he has just one top-10 finish. The reason for Goosen's fall could be his poor play on Saturdays. Goosen's round-three scoring average is 72.27, which is 161st on the TOUR. Goosen's problem could be his poor play in general, though -- he's averaging 72 shots per round this year, good enough for 169th. When Goosen was compared to Woods, Els, Mickelson and Singh, he was averaging 69.97 per round (2005). It might take four straight rounds of better than his best in 2005 in order to earn his way to the next round.

3. Chad Campbell
Chad Campbell is 108th in points after missing the cut at The Barclays. Campbell doesn't have any expectations going into this event, and there's no pressure. His play this past season has been some that Campbell will want to forget, and I'm predicting that he's ready to have the season end. After having five top-10 finishes in 2006, Campbell has just one this season, and it came at the World Golf Championships-Accenture Match Play Championship. In his past six events, he's missed the cut three times and tied for 57th, 67th and 77th. It wouldn't surprise me to see Campbell shoot rounds in the upper 70s at the TPC Boston.

4. Fred Funk
Fred Funk currently sits just outside the BMW Championship cut line at 75th overall. As much as I want Funk to get into the next round of the playoffs, I'm not sure he's got it in him to finish where he needs to in order to earn his way in. He doesn't have to win or finish in the top five to make it to round three. But in order to save his season, Funk will likely need to do what Rich Beem did at The Barclays -- grab a top-10 finish. Since 11th or worse this weekend will leave Funk just outside the top 70, and the fact that the field contains the best 115 golfers on the planet, I think a top 10 is too much to achieve. Funk might be running out of energy or thinking about other projects. This season, to go along with his 19 events on the PGA TOUR, Funk played in five events on the Champions Tour. The Deutsche Bank Championship will be Funk's fifth straight weekend of action and likely his last of the PGA TOUR season.