PGATOUR.COM - TFI: Toms a good bet at Doral

By Brett Avery
The Fantasy Insider
PGATOUR.COM Contributor

Here's The Fantasy Insider's new rallying cry: If you're going to score a 1.0, make it the best dang 1.0 you can muster. And, hey, perhaps you get lucky and fall into a 2.0!

TFI's known for close to a month that his Expert League rotisserie lineup needed some major adjustments. But he waited until prepping for last week's Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by MasterCard to make any changes in order to try out a theory.

The Fantasy Insider says David Toms could be a safe bet this week. (Greenwood/WireImage)

Inside The Numbers

David Toms at the CA Championship

Year	Score To Par	Finish
2006	+6	53
2005	-5	T6
2004	-7	T13
2003	-3	5
2002	-20	T4
2000	+1	T25
1999	+2	T11

As the rules state, players who are not eligible for the FedExCup playoffs don't receive FedExCup points in a tournament's summary or in League Championship results.

This could be a crucial factor in the match-play format, where the two bonus points for most FedExCup decide tight contests.

But TFI went into the season believing that forfeiting FedExCup points shouldn't rule out taking a points-ineligible player in the rotisserie format, where it is one of 10 stats calculated for scoring. After all, we're talking about seasoned international competitors, many of whom are among the top 75 in the Official World Golf Ranking.

Nine positives and one negative still put them ahead of a few of the guys at the bottom of any lineup. Especially TFI's lineup.

By pairing Casey and Montgomerie with K.J. Choi and Geoff Ogilvy, TFI all but conceded a last-place finish in FedExCup points for the Palmer. But he was happy to score that 1.0 if, in return, they bolstered some of TFI's ranking deficiencies.

Casey and Montgomerie are in the top third of the European Tour in driving accuracy and top 25 in greens in regulation, two places where TFI lagged despite leading the Expert League going into the Palmer.

As it turned out, the two PGA European Tour stars boosted TFI's fortunes in those areas, which became key when Choi withdrew after 54 holes. Casey, who tied for 14th along with Ogilvy, led the team in five stats. Montgomerie, who tied for 45th, was a solid second in five more.

Thanks to Ogilvy pulling down 438 points, TFI's squad actually scored a 2.0 in that last column, finishing seventh ahead of Greg Vara of rotowire.com (who would be the first to point out that a lineup of Stewart Cink, Phil Mickelson, Pat Perez and Kenny Perry wasn't exactly a position of strength at Bay Hill).

Five point-ineligible players made the cut at Bay Hill: Casey, Johan Edfors (tied 28th), Montgomerie (tied 45th), Yong-Eun Yang (tied 75th) and Robert Karlsson (tied 77th).

TFI's going to noodle with this no-points theory throughout the season, but he's ready to hand it over to you for a test drive at this week's World Golf Championships-CA Championship because the passel of the FedExCup point-ineligible players entered there probably are available in your league.

First, you need to realistically assess your rotisserie team's strengths and weaknesses. If you haven't done that yet this season, take a few minutes to print out the season-to-date standings found under the live scoring tab and give them a cold, hard study.

Even with last week's successes, TFI's squad ranks last in driving accuracy and sixth in greens in regulation. He's 1.5 percentage points behind seventh place in driving so there's a lot of repair work required there. But if he picked up a little more than a percentage point in greens, he'd jump to second in that stat.

And finding another six points for the overall score would put TFI back into first place for the season.

Casey and Montgomerie stood out in both categories when TFI scoured the stats available at www.europeantour.com.

The PGA Tour of Australiasia has a slightly different setup if you're looking for those prospects (www.pgatour.com.au), as does the Asian Tour (www.asiantour.com).

But the Japan Tour has the deepest stat package for each player at www.jgto.org -- be sure to click the "English" button in the upper right corner (and remember to say domo arigato to TFI for the translation advice!).

Second, realize that the correct point-ineligible player may get you back into contention in stat categories where you're weakest but will throw other categories out of whack. Like FedExCup points, for starters. That's especially true if you field a points-ineligible player this week at Doral CC, where the World Golf Championships payoff includes a slightly richer point structure.

TFI would suggest having no more than two such players on your roster. They each have their foibles -- Casey can be shaky with the putter and Montgomerie is horrifically short off the tee by today's standards. Like everything in fantasy sports, they add to the adventure of managing a team.

Of course, TFI will refrain from dwelling too much on finishing fifth last week in the Expert League, thanks to Choi's lousy performance before his WD and Casey's swoon from first place early in Saturday's round. Not for nothing, but if Casey had avoided just half of those 12 bogeys during the last 29 holes he would have tied for third.

Feel free to give TFI's points-ineligible theory a go. And by all means, please report back to TFI. He loves the mail.

PS: Difficult to believe but this is the 12th and final week of Salary Cap Cup's first segment, the West Coast Swing.

Segment 2 begins with next week's Shell Houston Open and stretches through the second weekend in June, the Stanford St. Jude Championship. If you've got family, friends or associates you'd like to get into the game, this is an ideal time to sign them up because that scoreboard goes back to 0 next week.

PSS: That Vijay Singh win two weeks after TFI wondered if he should stay on the roster? See what happens when you give your players some stick?

• David Toms. Last time out of the top five at Doral was when he missed the cut in 2003, when he was coming off a case of food poisoning at the World Golf Championships-Accenture Match Play Championship. He was solo 53rd in this thing last year, when it was played in England the week after the Ryder Cup, after a dreadful putting performance in the Ryder Cup (0-3-1). TFI's counting on that tie for 20th at The Honda Classic, one of only two finishes outside the top 15 this season, being long gone from his system after a two-week break.

• Tiger Woods. Two-time defending champion in both this event and at Doral CC, five-time winner in the tournament and never below ninth at the Blue Monster. What's not to like (other than taking him last week in that tie for 22nd last week in the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by MasterCard, his worst finish anywhere since the same thing last year in THE PLAYERS Championship)?

• The worst guy on your roster. Seriously, when was the last time you made a player change? You can waive a player in about 25 seconds, with a few clicks of the mouse. Print out those lineups, study each player's performance and shuck the dead weight. It's an ideal time to compare your roster to the players already invited to play in The Masters to make sure you've got a viable lineup that week. Do it now!

Rotisserie results for Expert League at Arnold Palmer Invitational: 40.5 points (fifth place). Third in putting and birdies, fourth in fairways hit and scoring. And 2.0 in FedExCup points! Overall: 53.5 points, tied for second with Mike Vitti of pgatour.com and 5.5 points behind Christian Peterson of fanball.com.

Match-play results for Public League 3359 at Arnold Palmer Invitational: TFI 10.5, Massachusetts Eagles 7.5. Overall: 6-3 (first place in West Division). TFI hand a second loss to the East Division leader and the league's point leader.

Salary Cap Cup results for Arnold Palmer Invitational: The main lineup of Tiger Woods (232 FedExCup points, tied 22nd), Vijay Singh (4,500 points, won!), Darren Clarke (0 points, missed cut), Camilo Villegas (55 points, 61st) and Daniel Chopra (0 points, missed cut) earned 4,887 points and placed 4,783rd. Through Week 11 it totaled 35,416 points and ranked 441st. The Woods finish doesn't hurt much because everyone would have gained point with his success. It's the bottom three not coming through that miffs TFI.

The "Hey, buddy" backup lineup of Phil Mickelson (115 FedExCup points, tied 36th), Geoff Ogilvy (438 points, tied 14th), Scott Verplank (338 points, tied 18th), Heath Slocum (53 points, tied 63rd) and Jonathan Byrd (0 points, missed cut) earned 944 points and placed 16,092nd. Through Week 11 it totaled 17,143 points and ranked 15,284th. Two guys in the top 20 and still can't break 1,000 for the week. Drat!

Salary Cap Cup lineup for World Golf Championships-CA Championship: Main lineup, Tiger Woods $300,000, David Toms $244,750, Lucas Glover $163,500, Johan Edfors $134,250, Zach Johnson $118,000. Total: $960,500. "Hey, buddy" backup lineup, Phil Mickelson $293,500, Paul Casey $257,750, Stephen Ames $212,250, Mike Weir $140,750, Kevin Stadler $85,500. Total: $989,750.

Have a question or comment for TFI? Send it to him at brettavery@aol.com. Please be sure to include your name, where you're from, the name of your team and, if it relates to League Championship, the name of your league and whether you're competing in the rotisserie or match-play format.