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By Steve Dennis
PGA TOUR Staff

It's going to be a tough week to move up in the FedExCup standings to get into the top 30, for three reasons.

First, there's history (what little we have of it). In the first two events of the PGA TOUR Playoffs for the FedExCup, we've seen how hard it is to get into the next event from outside the "elimination line." Only two players initially seeded outside the Top 120 made it from The Barclays to the Deutsche Bank Championship (Rich Beem moved from 134th to 113th with a tie for seventh and Doug LaBelle II moved from No. 121 to 120 with a tie for 41st), and only two moved from outside the Top 70 to qualify for the BMW Championship (John Mallinger and Bo Van Pelt, with ties for 14th and 30th, respectively, at the TPC Boston).

Padraig Harrington's break this week could prove costly. (WireImage)

Second, there is no cut this week, meaning that every player who finishes the event will receive at least 100 points. That's bad news for Padraig Harrington, who is in 25th place for now, but is skipping the event. A few players will certainly pass Harrington, but it is very much in doubt as to whether six players will, which is what it would take to drop him from the top 30.

Third, there are big gaps between 30th and 31st (271 points) and 32nd and 33rd (375 points). Players ranked 33rd and lower will need to cover both gaps in addition to the "guaranteed" 100 points to make it into the top 30.

Thus, from 33rd on down, any finish worse than 18th cannot be good enough, no matter what anyone else does. In reality, players 33rd to 40th will probably need a top-10 finish to advance, and those below 40th will need a top-five finish to advance.

It remains mathematically possible for anyone to win the FedExCup at this point. Van Pelt, in 70th place, would have 110,048 if he were to win twice. That's over 1,400 more than the current leader, Phil Mickelson, has, meaning it is easy to construct a scenario that would ensure no one accumulated more than the 110,048 Van Pelt would have. While the scenario is easy to construct, it's hard to believe in. Most importantly, of course, Van Pelt hasn't won on the PGA TOUR and has only two top-three finishes in his career. In addition, Mickelson would need only an 11th place finish or better at THE TOUR Championship presented by Coca-Cola to overtake him, and others in the top five could pass that amount with two strong finishes.

Since Mickelson has decided to sit out the BMW Championship, no one can clinch the FedExCup Trophy this week. However, if Steve Stricker wins, he'll have 115,200 points, plus a minimum of 395 more guaranteed, assuming he plays THE TOUR Championship. That would mean no one outside the current top-five could catch him regardless of what they do at the BMW Championship or THE TOUR Championship. All but Mickelson would need not only a win at THE TOUR Championship to catch him, but a strong finish at the BMW Championship as well. Tiger Woods is also a strong favorite to win the Cup if he wins in Chicago this week, with only Stricker, Mickelson and whoever finishes second likely to be within striking distance, and then only if one of those three wins the last event.

If anyone outside the top five wins the BMW Championship, there will be a shootout in Atlanta for the top prize, especially if Stricker also doesn't finish second. Suppose Vijay Singh, currently sixth in the standings, wins the BMW Championship and Brandt Snedeker finishes second. Singh would have

108,108 points, and at least seven players would be within 10,000 points of him, meaning they'd be at least mathematically in the hunt. Mickelson, Stricker and probably Woods (and, of course, Singh) would be guaranteed to win the FedExCup if any of them won THE TOUR Championship. If Singh was out of contention on the weekend, at least five players could expect to win the Cup by winning the tournament.

Singh's poor start in the first two Playoff events (a missed cut and tie for 60th) doesn't appear to have been very costly -- he has only dropped to sixth. But without a win this week, his chance to win the FedExCup is probably history. Even a second-place finish would give him only 104,508 points, leaving him behind Mickelson and Stricker, and probably Woods and whoever wins the BMW Championship. If Singh finishes second but Stricker wins at Cog Hill, Vijay is eliminated, and if Woods wins, the Fijian all but eliminated. If any of those players has a good TOUR Championship, even a Singh win in Atlanta might not be enough to garner victory in the points competition.

Arron Oberholser can't buy a break. After a great finish at the Deutsche Bank Championship, where he tied for second, he was forced to withdraw from the BMW Championship with wrist problems. He had climbed from 67th to 29th in the standings with his great play last week, and put himself in good position to make THE TOUR Championship. Now, however, he is virtually guaranteed to be watching next week -- and even if he made the field, Oberholser said Thursday his injuries would not allow him to play at East Lake.

Near-miss pairings:
Famous aquatic bird playing Rooster Cogburn in the movie of the same name: Donald-Duke
English spy stranded on a deserted island: Austin-Howell III
Stuttering prisoner in Alcatraz: Byrd-Mahan
Nat King Cole song about a flower that coddles others: Pampling-Rose
The correct way to describe the previous pairing: Singh-Baddeley