Nationwide guys play the complicated game of estimation
 
Oct. 31, 2007

LAKEVIEW, Calif. -- Roland Thatcher has done the math, taking this particular numbers project much deeper than he did in winning the Cox Classic presented by Chevrolet with a 24-under-par total of 260.

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Roland Thatcher is still keeping an eye on the climbing Jon Mills despite his strong lead on the money list. (Condon/PGA TOUR)

And 2007's leading money winner has reached a comforting conclusion on the eve of the $775,000 Nationwide Tour Championship, which begins Thursday at Barona Creek Golf Club.

Thatcher controls his destiny. If he takes care of business over the 72-hole chase for the biggest first prize ($139,500) in the Nationwide Tour's 18-year history, he'll win the money title and those delicious perks that go with it, a full exemption on the PGA TOUR in 2008 and a place in the insanely rich PLAYERS Championship.

"If I play well, there's nothing anybody can do about it,'' said Thatcher, a two-time winner who has won $409,699 in 27 starts.

But here's the catch, Thatcher has gone through a poor patch of play of late. He had missed four consecutive cuts before righting his listing ship with a tie for 16th at last week's Miccosukee Championship. Meanwhile Jon Mills, who ranks third on the money ladder, has become the face in Thatcher's rearview mirror.

"He's had a fantastic second half,'' Thatcher said of the Canadian, who used the 2005 Nationwide Tour season as an avenue to the PGA TOUR. "He's playing with a lot of confidence.''

Mills' record of late -- he has won once and finished no worse than a tie for 16th in eight of nine starts -- underscores Thatcher's point.

As for Thatcher, he says he lost some rhythm in his swing, leading to the only down period of what has been an up season.

"I was playing horribly,'' he said.

That was last month, and last month is gone. Thatcher believes his swing and rhythm have returned based on last week's result. Hence his game is on an up-tick.

"I struck the ball really well last week,'' he said. "I just didn't get the ball in the hole.''

So back to the money equation.

Thatcher owns a $46,538 lead over Mills, who will need a solo third (at worst) to catch Thatcher. And that's if Thatcher finishes dead last in the 56-player field that is without No. 2 Nick Flanagan (performance promotion to the PGA TOUR), No. 4 Jason Day (wrist injury), No. 38 Jay Williamson (competing in the Children's Miracle Network Classic presented by Wal-Mart on the PGA TOUR) and No. 52 Garrett Willis (back injury).

History isn't necessarily on Mills' side. In the 14 previous Nationwide Tour Championships, the money lead has changed hands three times, in 1998, 2000 and 2002. But that won't stop Mills from trying to alter the financial standings.

"Sure I'd like to get to No. 1,'' Mills said. "That's huge because you get to plan your season. It would be nice to be able to take a week off on my terms. That's why I've kept plugging away.''

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Jon Mills' recent performance has closed the gap a little between he and money leader Roland Thatcher. (Feldman/WireImage)

That's basically what all the players in the field will be doing on the 7,328-yard, par-71 course, which has been ranked as the San Diego area's best public track. The numbers say with that huge prize going to the champion on Sunday, every player in the field has a mathematical chance at finishing in "THE 25'' and earning a PGA TOUR card in 2008.

There is another plateau beyond the "THE 25'' goal, however. Players who finish between 26th and 40th on the final money list are exempted into the PGA TOUR Qualifying Tournament finals. That perk removes some of the stress from the post-season, where so many jobs are at stake. Players between 26th and 60th are fully exempt on the Nationwide Tour in 2008.

The player with the biggest bulls eye on his back is the self-proclaimed "Bubble Boy'' Brenden Pappas, who rests uneasily in 25th position on the money list, the last place to secure PGA TOUR playing privileges in 2008. His lead is a scant $2,754 over Michael Letzig. There is a logjam between Pappas and Chris Nallen, who is 37th with only $28,896 separating the two.

"All you can do this week is just play golf,'' said Franklin Langham, who is 29th with $172,682 in earnings. "You just hope you make a few more putts than the other guys.''

Langham, a veteran of eight seasons on the Nationwide Tour and seven on the PGA TOUR, knows every player in the field is "playing for something'' this week.

"If you're No. 15 on the money list, you're trying to improve your status,'' he said. "If you're where I am, you're trying to get into "THE 25.'' If you're outside 40, you're looking to at least squeeze in there.

"My approach beginning last week was I had three chances to get to where I want to be. I could have done it at Miccosukee or I could do it this week. But if I don't I have the q-school finals. So that's not bad. If nothing else, I've eliminated two stages of q-school this year. You have to find the positive.''