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By Brett Avery
PGATOUR.COM Contributor

Three weeks to go in Segment 2 of Salary Cap Cup, and everyone is looking forthe big play that will push them up the food chain.

The last month hasn¹t been the time to fulfill those dreams.

True, the last four tournaments have resulted in some of the biggest pointtotals of the season for each week¹s top finishers and, by extension, ther est of the pack.

But the percentage differential from first place to 50th each of those four weeks are clustered in the low third of the 20 tournaments played this season. And three of the four are worse than the 12-week results for Segment 1.

Translation: The past month it¹s been mathematically difficult to put daylight between yourself and the rest of the crowd.

The Fantasy Insider pulled out the solar calculator for this week¹s Monday night research and selection jag. He was harboring the sneaking suspicion that predicting the outcome of these last few tournaments has been difficult.

The fact that the top lineup scored only 401 points at the AT&T Classic might have swayed his opinion in that regard. (Having Zach Johnson and little other support in the backup ³Hey, buddy² lineup didn¹t help matters, either.)

TFI started looking at the weekly point totals of those finishing in first and 50th place and calculating how much of a premium the top finisher gained over the person in 50th (not to mention the rest of us).

The formula to determine a tournament¹s percentage differential looks like this: (weekly winner¹s score 9 50th-place finisher¹s score)

50th-place finisher¹s score

The differential from 50th (8,637 FedExCup points) to first (9,927 points) for last week¹s AT&T Classic was 1,290 points, or 14.9 percent. At first blush that seems like a lot when you consider there are more than 30,000 teams taking part in the competition.

Bell curves flatten at the extremes but 14.9 percent at the tippy-tippy end seems like a ton.

But it actually ranks 14th out of the 20 weeks played so far in the PGA TOUR season. And THE PLAYERS Championship the prior week pulled in at 15th (14.5 percent).

That¹s pretty amazing when you consider the top five at the TPC Sugarloaf was Zach Johnson, Ryuji Imada, Matt Kuchar, Troy Matteson, Camilo Villegas and the top five at the TPC Sawgrass was Phil Mickelson, Sergio Garcia, Stewart Cink, Jose Maria Olazabal and Jose Coceres.

TFI¹s gut tells him most people would think THE PLAYERS was far easier to pick because it¹s the strongest field of the year so practically everyone in the universe was available. But it came within a few tenths of a percent from what TFI (and probably most people) would think was one of the hardest weeks, the AT&T Classic.

Three weeks ago, the Wachovia Championship rated 19.2 percent and ranked 13th with Tiger Woods, Steve Stricker, Phil Mickelson, Rory Sabbatini and the fifth-place tie between Stewart Cink and Anthony Kim.

And the EDS Byron Nelson Championship rated 17th out of 20 with 11.7 percent on Scott Verplank, Luke Donald, Jerry Kelly, Mickelson, Ian Poulter and Rory Sabbatini in the top five.

The biggest bang for the weekly winner? The Sony Open in Hawaii, where the week¹s winner scored at a full 70 percent above 50th place (Paul Goydos, Charles Howell III, Donald, Doug LaBelle II, K.J. Choi, Jim Furyk and Stricker in the top five). Next was 39.40 percent at the Arnold Palmer Invitational (Vijay Singh, Vaughn Taylor, Ben Curtis, Garcia, Tom Lehman and John Rollins), followed by 39.36 percent at the FBR Open (Aaron Baddeley, Rollins, Jeff Quinney, Bart Bryant and Billy Mayfair).

The week where everyone was wrapped like a cocoon in a comforter was the Nissan Open, where only 6 percent separated first from 50th (Howell, Mickelson, Robert Allenby, Ernie Els and Furyk). Next was the WGC-Accenture World Match Play at 7.1 percent.

Interesting how many times Mickelson keeps popping up in those lists. His only other top-five placing of the year was at the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am, which ranks 16th at 12.6 percent (Kevin Sutherland, John Mallinger, Davis Love III, Greg Owen).

Segment 2 ends with the Stanford St. Jude Championship the first full week in June. You¹re running out of time to make that big push to the fore. At least now you can go into it with the consoling thought that it¹s even been tough for the weekly winner to put much daylight between himself and everyone else, too.

P.S.: A fair number of you were shamed into dashing off tardy missives after reading last week¹s moping about the lack of enthusiasm (and contributions) to the fourth annual haiku column. Among the best:

New schedule, old picks
falter in heat and pressure
Southern Swing despair
-- ­Mick Jagger

Sorry, no haik
What¹s a busy fantasy
Guy to do but pick
-- Jim Gerber

Thanks to one and all.

Three players TFI might pick up/trade for to get onto his roster this week:

Stewart Cink

--Stewart Cink. TFI has a nasty habit of taking a player one week, watching him stumble around a bit and then seeing him burst into contention (or win) the following week. So this week he¹s tagging to this guy for a do-over on last week¹s tie for 24th in the AT&T Classic. The two starts before that he tied for fifth (Wachovia Championship) and third (THE PLAYERS) so he¹s been hot lately. Finished in a tie for 14th or better three of the last four years at Colonial CC and co-runner-up in 2000 on a final-round 71, two behind Phil Mickelson. So he has something to prove this week.

Bo Van Pelt

--Bo Van Pelt. Doesn¹t seem possible that he¹s 52nd in FedExCup points or 15th in scoring average but he¹s posted three top 20s in his last six starts. His first three starts at Colonial CC were ties for 12th, 17th and fifth so he¹s shown a strong affinity for the place. He¹s also one of the strongest Sunday players on TOUR this season (69.73, sixth) even with a 76 the last day in the Arnold Palmer Invitational (tied 22nd).

--Steve Stricker. If he wasn¹t pushing Cink, TFI¹d be holding this guy up for inspection. Three of his last five starts this year a tie for 11th or better including that second at Wachovia, his fourth top-10 placing of the season. Only four starts at Colonial and just one in the last four years, a tie for 13th two years ago when a final 72 cost him dearly. It¹s six years now since that last victory for last year¹s Comeback Player of the Year.

Time for another dose of redemption.

One player TFI might waive/drop/trade away to get off his roster this week:

Bob Estes

-- Bob Estes. This could be another one of those situations where TFI ends up eating his words but the Texas connection doesn¹t look so hot against a Jekyll-Hyde streak in the last two months (three top 10s, three missed cuts) and the last four years at Colonial (three also-rans below 56th and a missed cut). Sure, he¹s first in putting average on greens he hits in regulation. Only problem is he¹s 171st in greens.

Rotisserie results for Expert League at AT&T Classic:

35.0 points (seventh). Second in putting, tied third sand saves, first in general ineptitude. Overall: 56.0 points (third, 4.5 points behind Greg Vara of rotowire.com). Difficult to imagine a more distasteful week but if it¹s out there, TFI is searching for it. David Toms is the only player making the cut and from there it was a dizzying drop down the standings.

Rotisserie lineup for Expert League at Crowne Plaza Invitational at Colonial:

K.J. Choi, Tim Clark, Steve Stricker, David Toms.

Active but not in lineup: Ken Duke, Shigeki Maruyama, Ryan Palmer. Not in

field: Paul Casey, Anders Hansen, Padraig Harrington, Geoff Ogilvy, Bubba Watson.

Match-play results for Public League 3359 at AT&T Classic:

TFI 13, St. Pete Crumbsnatchers 5. Overall: 11-6-1 (first in West Division by three games). TFI knows how the opposing team owner feels with only David Toms making the cut (see rotisserie results). At least having Zach Johnson on this lineup boosted TFI¹s spirits.

Match-play lineup for Public League 3359 at Crowne Plaza Invitational at Colonial:

Davis Love III, Nick O¹Hern, Daniel Chopra, Frank Lickliter II, Mark Calcavecchia, Jonathan Byrd.

Not in field: Jose Coceres, Ernie Els, Anders Hansen, Zach Johnson, Troy Matteson, Vijay Singh.

Salary Cap Cup results for AT&T Classic:

The main lineup of Stewart Cink (203 FedExCup points, tied 24th), David Toms (142 points, tied 30th), Daniel Chopra (0 points, missed cut), Michael Putnam (56 points, tied 56th) and Alex Cejka (0 points, missed cut) earned 401 points and placed 19,292nd. Through Week 19 it totaled 11,092 points and ranked 21,683rd in Segment 2. For the season it totaled 53,001 points and ranked 3,297th overall.

The "Hey, buddy" backup lineup of Zach Johnson (4,500 FedExCup points, won!), Jose Coceres (0 points, did not start!?!?), Fredrik Jacobson (0 points, missed cut), Will Mackenzie (0 points, missed cut) and Briny Baird (625 points, tied ninth) earned 5,125 points and placed 2,460th. Through Week 19 it totaled 28,456 points and ranked 783rd. For the season it totaled 46,160 points and ranked 6,871st overall.

Week 19 winner: Gold Tee1 9,927 points.

Segment 2 leader: BAMF 43,150 points.

Overall season: Outlaws 84,471 points.

Salary Cap Cup lineup for Crowne Plaza Invitational at Colonial: Main lineup, Steve Stricker $287,000, David Toms $277,250, Jonathan Byrd $183,000, Bo Van Pelt $150,500, Kenny Perry $75,000. Total: $972,750. "Hey, buddy" backup lineup, Scott Verplank $267,500, Rod Pampling $257,750, John Senden $225,250, Peter Lonard $157,000, Matt Kuchar $85,500.

Total: $993,000. Tiebreakers: 267, 2.

Have a question or comment for TFI? Send it to him at brettavery@aol.com. Please be sure to include your name, where you¹re from, the name of yourteam and, if it relates to League Championship, the name of your league andwhether you¹re competing in the rotisserie or match-play format.