TOUR Fantasy Insider: Picking Your Players
 
Jan. 3, 2007

If the space around your computer looks anything like The Fantasy Insider's -- and for your sake let's hope it doesn't -- you've come back from an extended holiday break to find a mess of papers, to-do notes and correspondence.

Welcome to reality, circa 2007!

As the new year hits TFI in the face like the slap of a wet mackerel, it's best to get the priorities in order. TFI suggests following his lead by gathering up that pile of paper and dumping it on the floor. There are far more important tasks that need undivided attention at this moment.

FANTASY GOLF

Like fantasy golf games.

We're deep into draft season for League Championship, with next week's Sony Open at Hawaii the first event in the season. If you haven't joined a league it's the ideal moment to go here and get into the mix.

First, though, this week's Mercedes-Benz Championship kicks off Segment One of Salary Cap Cup, the first 12 weeks of an action-packed run concluding in early September with THE TOUR Championship. Hit that link above to sign up for that game, too.

We'll get to TFI's draft strategy for League Championship in a few paragraphs. But because there's a pressing deadline with Salary Cap Cup, let's review that game first.

Although he won't write as much about Salary Cap Cup, understand the game's close to TFI's heart. It prompted the birth of this weekly exercise in third-person depreciation, part labor of love and part contribution to the mortgage payment.

To bring any newcomers up to speed, TFI selects two teams of players, a main lineup and a "Hey, buddy" squad (as in "Hey, buddy, can you spare a dime?").

TFI makes every effort to spread his 10 selections across the salary range. If you're in need of, say, someone around $150,000 there's a candidate or two to consider.

Of course, taking a representative sampling is not an exact science, especially when it's TFI making the picks. Your erstwhile columnist has a competitive streak and hates having either team as an also-ran in the standings. Sometimes he skews the picks toward the high or low end of the range to try and bulk up on his results -- or save face.

You know, the same face hit with that wet mackerel.

OK, now to League Championship strategy.

TFI's psyched about the rule changes for 2007, especially the bump to a 12-man roster. He absolutely hated last year's near-weekly scrambling of the roster to secure six active players (or playing a short lineup and crossing his fingers for success).

If your league opted for an automated draft then you're able to sit back and relax until early next week, when it's time to set your Sony Open in Hawaii lineup. But if you're still facing a live draft, it's time to do your homework.

Salary Cap Cup Main Lineup
Mercedes-Benz Championship
Adam Scott $292,969
Vijay Singh $285,938
Stuart Appleby $236,719
Eric Axley $75,000
Kirk Triplett $75,000
Total $965,626
Salary Cap Cup "Hey, Buddy" Lineup
Mercedes-Benz Championship
Jim Furyk $300,000
Geoff Ogilvy $264,844
David Toms $243,750
Corey Pavin $89,062
Jeff Maggert $75,000
Total $972,656

TFI's all about questions and statistics, believing that when it comes to drafts it's best to have a quick litmus test to determine whether a guy makes your short list. With two formats -- rotisserie and match play -- come two specialized litmus tests.

For both, though, there is one central question: Will he play?

A 12-man roster allows stashing away a few infrequent competitors, such as a PGA European Tour star, for majors and World Golf Championships. But that's dangerous in match play, where you might need eight live bodies (in case the top four miss the cut).

TFI suggests a general threshold of 20 starts in the 37 weeks of the FedEx Cup. Of course, that's said with the caveat that no one knows how much players may adjust their schedule in order to prep for what they hope will be an incredibly busy July through September. That said, the 2006 money leaders give an indication of how much anyone will play.

After that single query TFI sees the draft game plans for the two formats diverging like roads in a Robert Frost poem.

Rotisserie: The 10 statistical categories used for League Championship scoring require serious scrutiny. But TFI also suggests looking at each player's stats for the past three years (if on TOUR that long) for these indicators.

Proximity to hole: It speaks to ball-striking ability and how much pressure a player puts on himself on the greens. A guy who keeps hitting it close finds all kinds of good things happening to himself -- and to your team's scoring.

Top 25 finishes: The higher up the food chain at the end of the tournament, the more guys will grind (not to mention FedEx Cup points they'll score). Guys who make a lot of cuts but are well out of contention may not carry that edge through the 72nd hole. And with only four active players each week you need every stat point you can grab.

Average distance of putts made: Two for the price of one. The "value" number is the average of all 18 putts made per round, kind of like placing them end-to-end. The better putters have the smallest differences between their "value" number and "best round." But TFI also takes a hard look at the "average distance of putts made" column. The guys at the top here are more likely to ram home a tough comeback putt or capitalize on a superb approach shot.

Match play: Here's five numbers in each player's stat profile that could indicate their potential value.

Birdie conversion %: Let's face it, birdies win holes. Guys who make tons of 'em have a better chance of taking the daily point.

Par 3/Par 4/Par 5 birdie leaders:The same philosophy as birdie conversions but these subsets showcase individual strengths. For TFI's money the par-3 list is vital as it also speaks to strong iron play.

Bounce back:Nothing worse than following one mistake with another (or, in TFI's case when playing, three or four). This tells the number of times a player follows a bogey or higher with a birdie or better.

Three-putt avoidance: In match-play competitors can see how the opponent performs and alter their tactics accordingly. Without conceded putts, though, three-jacks are lethal.

Scoring average (before cut): Overall scoring average is nice but those first two days are critical in this format. TFI would rather win both of the first two matches against an opponent and enter the weekend guaranteed a push. He also knows a guy who makes the cut but is down the standings might play indifferently during the weekend. Better to lock up early points.

Oh, and one other tip when it comes to live drafts: be on time. You'd be amazed by the percentage of competitors who miss the first round or two. Considering that's when the top players are snapped up you want to have a say in the guys you get.

Have a question or comment for TFI? Send it to him at brettavery@aol.com. Please remember to include your team and league names and whether you're playing a rotisserie or match-play league.